by Michael Harvey | Aug 4, 2009 | Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Europe and Central Asia, Global system, North America, UK
– In the week leading up to the first anniversary of the Russia-Georgia conflict, the FT reports on the lingering regional tensions still apparent, while openDemocracy assesses some of the war’s wider implications for the US, EU, China and Turkey. Georgia aside, James F. Collins, former US ambassador to Russia, highlights the current fragility of US-Russia relations and the importance of “sustained dialogue within a solid institutional framework” if measured progress is to continue.
– Elsewhere, in a taster of the forthcoming Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR), two senior Pentagon officials survey the global landscape and assess what this means for the US’s strategic outlook. The main challenge (alongside adapting to the realities of hybrid warfare and a growing number of failing states), Michele Flournoy and Shawn Brimley suggest, will likely revolve around competition for the global commons (sea, space, air and cyberspace). A successful approach, they argue, should see the US refocus its efforts on building strong global governance structures and taking the “lead in the creation of international norms”. Andrew Bast at WPR comments that this could once again herald a US foreign policy with Wilsonianism firmly at its core.
– Der Spiegel, meanwhile, takes an in-depth look at the growing global market for farmland. In what it labels the “new colonialism”, the article notes the implications of such investment flows for states in Africa and Asia, as well as gauging the impact on local farmers.
– Climatico assesses Nicolas Sarkozy’s climate change credentials, highlighting his “erratic behaviour” on the issue and suggesting that the French stance is one to watch in the run up to Copenhagen.
– Finally, an interesting PoliticsHome poll on attitudes of the British public to the country’s foreign policy. 65% of voters, it indicates, agree that foreign policy has weakened Britain’s “moral authority” abroad – a view held across the political spectrum. Perhaps more strikingly, however, a majority (54%) felt the country should scale down its overseas military commitments, even if this meant ceding global influence. Interestingly, 57% were in favour of humanitarian intervention. Writing in Newsweek, meanwhile, Stryker McGuire adds to the narrative of declinism. The current economic crisis, he argues, has finally put paid to Britain’s attempts to maintain its world role and place at the international top table.
by Alex Evans | May 29, 2009 | Europe and Central Asia
And now, by way of Friday afternoon amusement, a selection of headlines from the always-excellent English language version of Pravda: if you haven’t discovered, add it to your favourites immediately.
For where else can you find such an infectious mixture of imperial swagger – “Russia creates its own version of NATO in Central Asia to be prepared for big war“; “Ukraine’s Tymoshenko makes ridiculous offer to Russia’s Putin” – together with touching moments of national self-doubt such as “Europe may not even want to improve ties with Russia at all“, or the heart-breaking “Russian fighter jets worse than those of USA and Europe?”
The science section is equally diverting. Not for Pravda the hand-wringing about impending environmental catastrophe that you’ll find in the Guardian or the NY Times; instead, Pravda reports with a weary roll of the eyes that “Scientists predict men’s extinction again“, while noting elsewhere that “Vegetarianism proves to be perversion of nature“.
Above all, be sure to check out Pravda’s approach to lifestyle issues, which blends approving reports of bling being brandished – “Russian billionaire opens Europe’s most expensive luxury hotel“; “Putin and Medvedev to open holiday season in their luxury beach mansions“; or best of all, “Putin makes public presentation of his very serious new car ” – with undisguided bemusement towards those who fail to share its enthusiasm for same (“Russia’s richest man moves to god-forsaken village “).
By way of a small sample of the kind of genius you’re missing out on, herewith the full story on Putin’s pimped-up new ride:
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin made a public presentation of his new Niva vehicle, which he bought about a month ago. The car was unveiled to reporters near Putin’s residence in the city of Sochi in Russia’s south, where Putin conducted negotiations with the prime minister of Turkey.
Putin told reporters that he was enjoying driving his new car, although he only traveled about 300 meters, RIA Novosti reports. Putin did not specify the price that he paid for the SUV.
Putin said that he liked the new wheels of the car, its soft suspension and the powerful engine. The prime minister also said that his car had a special specification, although it was already available at the manufacturing company (Russia’s AvtoVAZ).
“You’d better step aside, guys, it’s a serious car,” Putin warned the photographers, who were taking pictures of the car.
Several journalists had the privilege of driving Putin’s SUV. One of them took a ride around Putin’s residence and acknowledged that the driving was really enjoyable.
A female correspondent of RIA Novosti news agency said that it would be a very good car for a blonde.
A journalist from Turkey was the third to drive Putin’s car.
“Is it really Niva?” he asked Putin after the ride.
“It surely is,” Putin responded.
The journalist wondered if these cars would be available in Turkey.
“This car can be available in many countries of the world. This is a best-seller of AvtoVAZ,” Putin said.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who visited Sochi on Saturday, did not drive the car.
“He didn’t drive it, because the car arrived today. If they had delivered it yesterday, me and Silvio would have obviously taken a ride,” Putin said.
by Jules Evans | Mar 18, 2009 | Economics and development, Europe and Central Asia
The Kremlin has been shaken by the credit crunch, which hit the Russian stock exchange worse than any other exchange in 2008, pushing it down around 65%. The fall in the oil price threatens to push the economy into recession this year, and Russian oligarchs have seen their fortunes halve.
However, the country is still in a relatively strong position compared to its neighbours, and there are signs it is looking to capitalise on this to expand its economic influence in the region.
For the last few weeks, the country’s largest bank, state-owned Sberbank, has been in talks to buy the troubled Bank Turam Alem in Kazakhstan, which had to be nationalised by the Kazakh government earlier this year. It’s the biggest bank in Kazakhstan, and would give the Russian state enormous economic leverage within the country, at a time when Kazakhstan is wondering whether to join the ruble or to set up a new central Asian regional currency.
In Kyrgyzstan, which has also been badly shaken by the economic crisis, Russia agreed a $2bn loan package and $150m ‘grant’ in February. A few weeks later, the government agreed to close down the US air base at Manas.
In Belarus, talks with the IMF have stalled, while Aleksander Lukashenko is seeking a further $2.7bn loan from the Kremlin on his visit to Moscow this week, to prop up the central bank’s reserves. There are also talks to sell one of the country’s biggest banks, BPS Bank, to Sberbank.
In Ukraine, PM Yulia Timoshenko is trying to get a $5bn 15-year loan from the Kremlin to cover the country’s budget deficit, much to the ire of the country’s president, Viktor Yushchenko, who compared the potential deal to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
This was after Timoshenko’s government failed to meet the IMF’s targets for government spending cuts in February, leading to the suspension of the second tranche of the IMF’s $16bn loan package to the country.
No doubt the Kremlin will be telling both Ukraine and Belarus that if they want the emergency cash, they need to give Gazprom more control over the pipelines that take the EU’s gas through these countries.
In Hungary this month, where the economy is also in dissarry and the government desperately needs cash, Gazprom signed two important deals with MOL, whereby the Hungarian government agreed to finance the South Stream pipeline from Russia (which will be a competitor to the EU-approved Nabucco pipeline). Details of the deal are shady, but it may have been that the government got some short-term loan in return for supporting the project.
by Richard Gowan | Feb 7, 2009 | Conflict and security, North America, Off topic, UK
In January, I reproduced a fine picture of Nicolas Sarkozy atop a French tank in Lebanon. Today, the NYT opens a profile of new U.S. Afghanistan-Pakistan envoy Richard Holbrooke thus:
Stashed in a drawer in his Manhattan apartment between snapshots of family vacations, a photograph shows Richard C. Holbrooke on a private visit to Afghanistan in 2006. He is mugging atop an abandoned Russian tank, flashing a sardonic V-for-victory sign and his best Nixon-style grin. The pose is a little like Mr. Holbrooke himself: looming, theatrical, passionate, indignant.
Three years later, he has inherited responsibility for the terrain he surveyed from that tank.
Now, it is fair to say that neither M. Sarkozy nor Mr. Holbrooke are scared of having their image scrutinized in the public domain. So we offer the readers the chance to compare and contrast their tank-top appearances:
Holbrooke has the edge here: (i) he has made sure that he is seen from below, accentuating his height; (ii) he is dressed for action, whereas President Sarkozy is just a little too dapper; (iii) he is surrounded by people who look like the better-dressed postgrads in a philosophy seminar, but we assume are fearless warriors.
Still, both our subjects do way better than an earlier generation of tank-top politicians.
I give you Thatcher…
…and, of course, Dukakis (whose presidential defeat is often traced to this shot):
Facing such evidence, can anyone suggest politics is not growing more sophisticated?
by Jules Evans | Feb 2, 2009 | Influence and networks, UK
I see my first ever boss, Geordie Greig, has been nominated as the editor of the London Evening Standard by the new owner of the paper, playboy oligarch and former KGB spook, Alexander Lebedev.
I’ve interviewed Lebedev in Moscow. He is a strange man. Not your typical Russian oligarch at all. He’s something of an outsider in Putin’s government, despite having worked as a spy abroad (he was based here in London during the 1980s, and his job was to monitor capital flows from the USSR).
He’s much closer to Gorbachev, and the two own one of Russia’s few independent newspapers, Novaya Gazeta. People were worried Novaya Gazeta would lose its teeth when a KGB man bought it, but no, it still seems full of brave journalists – one of which was gunned down in Moscow in mid-January, while walking with a human rights lawyer.
The thing that struck me about Lebedev was how wowed he was by British society. He enthused about a dinner he was at in London, where he sat between Tom Stoppard and Tom Wolfe. His son Evgeny is even more of a butterfly, and he could be the one in the driving seat at the Standard.
What will be interesting is how the paper will report UK-Russian relations, next time Russia is in the news for some aggressive action (shouldn’t be long now), particularly if it took place in London, like the Litvinenko killing. I don’t think Lebedev would sit by and let the Standard slag off the Kremlin, as one previous editor, Max Hastings, is fond of doing – he referred in passing to Putin as ‘Russia’s chief Mafia capo’ in a Mail article last week. Not sure that would wash with the new proprietor of the Standard.
