by Charlie Edwards | Aug 28, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia
Numerous conspiracy theories on the Caucasus crisis are zipping round cyberspace. The latest from from Scott Lucas at Birmingham University:
it turns out that Dick Cheney’s deputy assistant for national security affairs, Joseph Wood, was hanging out in Tbilisi just before Georgia’s assault upon South Ossetia on 7 August. The official explanation is that Wood was helping set up Cheney’s visit to Georgia, along with stops in the Ukraine and Azerbaijan, in the first week of September. Hmmm…
by Richard Gowan | Aug 26, 2008 | Global system, Influence and networks, North America
Do you know who these people are?
You do? OK, get off this blog and play outside. You don’t? Then you’re over 16. They are the Jonas Brothers, a Disney-produced band with an enormous following among early teens in States. Last week, we found out that Dick Cheney’s a fan too, as the lads visited the White House to make a public service film about national parks and the Veep brought his granddaughters by to say hello.
About time. The Brothers have “visited the Bush White House three times, and are noted Evangelical Christians”. This leads us to the all-important question of which celebrities we can expect to see in the White House as of January next year. I’ve highlighted Barack Obama’s success in bringing RZA of the Wu-Tang Clan into public politics, but musicians up to and including Kanye West are descending on the Democratic Convention in hordes like never before. That has not, of course, stopped the Democrats from reportedly booking Springsteen and Bon Jovi to headline before Obama’s acceptance speech Thursday – they may have a fifty-state electoral strategy, but musically they’re all New Jersey.
The real question is, however, what the celebrity coterie hanging around a McCain White House might look like. The candidate launched a small war with Paris Hilton, and is trying to spark something similar with Madonna. Earlier this year, Doonesbury ran a great series of comic strips about a Hollywood fixer trying to recruit stars for the Republicans, settling for a lesser Baldwin brother. Now, the NYT blog reveals, politics is imitating satire, but at a sub-Baldwin level. Here’s its account of a recent fundraiser in Hollywood, oddly entitled “McCain’s celebrities”:
The (press) pool reported that the actors in the crowd included Gary Sinise, Dean Cain, Jon Voight, Jon Cryer, Angie Harmon, Craig T. Nelson and Lorenzo Lamas, among others.
Shouldn’t that be “McCain’s celebrity“? Jon Voight is, of course, a big name. The rest? Gary Sinise was good as the guy left on the ground in Apollo 13. Erm, Dean Cain was solid in the Superman TV series in the mid 1990s, but let’s face it: co-star Teri Hatcher has gone further. So what are we to make of this?
Mr. McCain was cheered when he told the crowd that he “would like to thank so many brave and courageous people who are here that happen to be in the business of Hollywood who are risking their entire futures and careers.”
He must be thinking of Dean’s rumored involvement in Maneater, in pre-production:
A former FBI profiler, now a sheriff of a small town and a single parent of a high school aged daughter, begins to profile a series of unexplained murders only to learn that the monster he’s profiling may be himself.
Ooh, I’m looking forward to that. If nothing else, Mr. Cain hamming it up sounds more fun than a celebrity gala at the McCain White House.
by Alex Evans | Aug 25, 2008 | Africa, Conflict and security, Economics and development, Influence and networks
From BBC Focus on Africa, via the excellent Chris Blattman:
Each morning the 36-year-old powers up a small United Nations radio transmitter and starts broadcasting from his mountain shack. His antenna points directly at the rebels in the bush. They know him by his call name “Mike India”.
…every so often, he reads out his phone number. Between the hours of 1am and 4am — when mobile minutes are free — his phone is deluged. Some rebels want to know where to demobilise, others rant about Paul Kagame, the current Rwandan president and former Tutsi rebel leader. Some just want Mike India to play different music.
These conversations are particularly extraordinary because neither the United States nor the United Kingdom- key Rwandan allies – have any official dialogue with the Hutu rebel groups (something diplomats from both countries complain about in private). Mike India not only talks to the rebels, he exchanges texts with them.
by Daniel Korski | Aug 18, 2008 | Cooperation and coherence, Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks, South Asia
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is resigning, thus opening a new chapter in this country’s history as the governing parties, PPP and PML-N, are bound to go at each other’s jugulars once the celebrations end.
But there is little time for festivities. The government has not been able to assume control over the military and intelligence apparatus or engage an increasingly capable alliance of Pakistani militant groups and al Qaeda, which looks set to control much of western Pakistan. Pakistan’s turmoil has pinched the country’s economy, and stoked inflation. In addition, relations with India have taken a turn for the worse.
The governing parties should be helped to re-draft the constitution to give way to a new, ceremonial President (like in India). But what is really needed is a new coalition agreement, which commits the government to deal with the economic meltdown, intelligence reforms, the emergence of a Pakistani Taliban and Pakistan-India links.
To bring the military on board to such an agenda, a revision is needed of US military assistance with the implicit promise of more and better-targeted assistance as a reward for a deal. A new U.S administration should use the threat of a suspension of military assistance if the Pakistani military balks at the necessary changes. Before the “nuclear option” of a legislative ban on assistance – which Barack Obama has supported in the past – a new administration could direct an audit of U.S military assistance.
While Europe can only play a limited role in moving the Pakistani military, it can play much bigger part in dealing with the Pakistani government. Over on the Spectator’s website, I offer suggestions for what shape this can take and the leverage the West has:
As a carrot for a new deal – which should include a balanced counter-insurgency strategy, regional peace initiatives and intelligence reforms – the Prime Minister could offer to host high-profile donor’s conference, which could lay the foundation for a UN-led assistance programme to be overseen by an assistance envoy. Perhaps this could be a job for Paddy Ashdown, who was lined up for the UN job in Afghanistan until Afghan President Hamid Karzai changed his mind.
No peace in Pakistan is possible without a regional peace process and Gordon Brown should persuade George W. Bush to appoint a Presidential Envoy – a regional version of Zalmay Khalilzad’s previous Afghan role – and for the EU to do the same. These two “tandem envoys” could then begin the long trek towards regional stability, helping to prepare the ground for a new strategy from a new U.S administration.
However much it spends, the U.S will get little for its aid dollars given its reputation in the region. Therefore, any international, UN-led assistance programme needs to be kicked-off by the Europeans.
by Daniel Korski | Aug 15, 2008 | Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia
At the risk of sounding morbid, it’s now possible to designate winners and losers in the heats of what will hopefully not become a new Olympic discipline: Russo-Georgian Warfare.
The ex-Soviet heat: Between Medvedev and Shakashvili, the winner’s clearly Russia’s new leader who, while having to initially share the stage with ex-president and former champion Vladimir Putin, was gradually allowed a greater role. Losers include ordinary Georgians and their government.
The ex-Warsaw Pact heat: Strong showing by the leaders of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states, but the medal goes to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk who announced Thursday that his country had agreed to host 10 American missile-defense interceptors in return for enhanced promise of mutual defense between the U.S. and Poland. Poor showing by the Czech, Slovak and Hungarian leaders – memories of losses in the 1956 and 1968 heats clearly weighed down the contestants.
The US heat: Between Barack Obama and John McCain, the Arizonian comes out on top. On holiday, Obama issued the occasional and concerned-sounding press release while McCain talked daily and tough, building on his tough-guy image. Polls suggest McCain’s come out better than Obama. Worst of all did George W Bush who’s belated reaction to the war’s horrors – preceded by photographed bonhomie with Vladimir Putin – guaranteed a poor showing.
The European heat: The French president has clearly come out on top despite a strong early showing by Sweden’s Carl Bildt who likened Russia’s tactics to those of Nazi Germany. A surprisingly strong showing by Finland’s youthful foreign minister Alex Stubb. One to watch in future competitions.
There was no Middle Eastern, Asian or Central Asian heats whilst the UN pulled out at the last minute.
Correction: In reference to my earlier posting on Georgia’s reconstruction, it has been pointed out that the U.S did not steal a march on the EU’s reconstruction efforts. As David Ringrose, Head of the Information and Communication unit in DG External Relations of the European Commission, points out, the EU’s assistance arm provided € 1 million for medical assistance, water & sanitation, food, blankets, clothes, and shelter for victims of the conflict. I guess the U.S were just better at publicizing their contribution….
