by Alex Evans | Sep 23, 2008 | Influence and networks, UK
Listening to Gordon Brown’s speech today, Philip Stephens notes that “Mr Brown kept his audience in its comfort zone”:
Though he set out the challenges Britain faces in a period of tumultuous global upheaval, Mr Brown did little to challenge his audience’s preconception that the present mess was all the fault of greedy capitalists.
Reading that brought to mind another Labour Conference speech in times of global upheaval: Tony Blair’s back in 2001. Remember this?
This is a moment to seize. The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. Before they do, let us re-order this world around us.
I re-read the whole thing this afternoon, and was struck by a) its brilliance, b) its insight, c) how it soars compared to Brown’s speech today and d) the extent to which – in retrospect, with all that’s happened since – it shines with an eerie messianic fervour. It’s well worth another look: full text below the jump.
(more…)
by David Steven | Sep 18, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia, Global system, North America
One way or another, it’s bad news for Spain if John McCain makes it to President. Either he doesn’t know where the country is, or he’s going to refuse to meet Spanish leader, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, until he shows a greater dedication to ‘human rights, democracy and freedom.’
This bizarre story, which is going viral in the Spanish language press, springs from an interview where McCain appeared to lump Zapatero with Castro and Chavez – leaders he would be cold shouldering until they mended their wicked ways.
Twice the Spanish reporter tried to emphasize that she was referring to a leader from Europe not Latin America, but McCain was not to be distracted. “All I can tell you is that I have a clear record of working with leaders in the Hemisphere that are friends with us and standing up to those who are not,” he said. “And that’s judged on the basis of the importance of our relationship with Latin America and the entire region.”
Later his campaign refused to take the easy way out (blame the reporter’s accent) or admit what seems to be the truth (McCain just got muddled). Instead, a spokesman claimed that the dissing of Zapatero had been a deliberate one (neocons hate him, of course, for what they see as the ‘betrayal’ that followed the Madrid bombings).
Josh Marshall has been all over the story – or there’s a good rundown in the Washington Post. You can listen to the interview here.
Is this what to expect from public diplomacy, McCain style?
by Richard Gowan | Aug 13, 2008 | Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Europe and Central Asia
The idea that EU personnel should help keep the peace in Georgia – noted here yesterday but in the air since last week – is gaining traction. Today, the European Council said that the EU would boost OSCE observers there, but that just means more Euros under the OSCE’s flag. But the Council left open the possibility of a mission under its own banner, and that’s reportedly being discussed in private.
Russia has indicated that it is open to a greater “international aspect”. One potential problem: the Russians may also insist that EU monitors operate within the framework of, or in very close coordination with, the existing (Russian-led) CIS “peacekeeping force” in South Ossetia. That could mean EU-badged troops taking orders from Russian officers, or at least having to defer to them.
That may be the price to pay to avoid more bloodshed (the European Council says it’ll support “every effort” and while it stipulates the UN and OSCE, that could mean the CIS too). And the EU would demand that the force in South Ossetia come under a UN mandate – previously, it’s relied on an agreement between Georgia and Moscow that the Georgians have voided by quitting the CIS.
But a Russian-EU hook-up will not impress those Georgians who had hoped that the EU might come to their aid during the war – experience in Kosovo and elsewhere indicates that it won’t be long before an angry war vet decides to take personal revenge. And it will be greeted with hoots from the Washington neocons: is this the marvellous European Security and Defence Policy? Are some EU members more comfortable with Russian command than with the U.S. in Afghanistan?
How can the EU limit the damage to its image? In operational terms, the answer must be to maximize the autonomy of its contingent as much as possible (in recent days, I’ve kicked ideas to and fro with Nicu Popescu of ECFR on this, and he’s reproduced part of the exchange on his blog). But the key is to ensure that the EU is also seen to be delivering humanitarian and reconstruction aid, and boosting Georgian democracy every way it knows. But the U.S. is ahead in that game – and this is Korski’s turf, so I challenge him to put forward a plan…
by Daniel Korski | Aug 10, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia
Now that the Russo-Georgian War is coming to an end, hopefully the Georgian authorities will review the steps that led to the confrontation, and its military set-backs.
No doubt Russia should be blamed for wanting to dismember Georgia and perhaps even topple its president. The U.S should consider how its forthright support led the Tblisi government down a dead-end road. The German and French governments need to reflect on how their veto of Georgia’s NATO membership at the Bucharest Summit in April encouraged Mikheil Saakashvili to take unilateral military action, believing nobody else would help him recover territory belonging to Georgia. And the EU as a whole needs to consider how its inaction – and head-in-the-sand policy – made a bad situation worse.
But above all, the Georgian government needs to look at its own strategic and military miscalculations. Once the ceasefire takes effect, I hope that Georgia will show itself to be a true democracy with citizens demanding that an investigation be conducted into the war much like the Agranat Commission investigated the Israeli government’s actions during the Yom Kippur War. It’s what a real democracy does.
by Mark Weston | Jul 31, 2008 | Middle East and North Africa
I am delighted to report that, unlike the prescient Daniel, my prediction that Turkey’s governing AK Party was on its way out has proved almost totally wrong. I say almost totally because, although the constitutional court has bucked the trend and allowed the party to survive, it has punished AK by withdrawing millions of dollars of state funding, which one journalist believes “is as bad as banning a party.” The decision, moreover, was a very narrow one – 6 of the 11 judges voted for a ban, just one short of the 7 judges needed (so I wasn’t that far out, was I? Was I?).
Needless to say, the government is breathing a huge sigh of relief (clearly the loss of funding is not that big a blow), while the opposition is claiming that the heavy financial punishment shows the court believes AK is anti-secular. Hopefully, now, the government can get on with governing. Perhaps, too, an older assessment of mine, that Turkey is only now becoming a mature democracy that can act as a model for the rest of the Muslim world, has some chance of coming to pass.
