Not just a liquidity crisis

by | Aug 22, 2007


Gregory Djerejian at Belgravia Dispatch has a good tip if you’re after an informed blog to decode recent happenings on the financial markets: Nouriel Robini’s page on RGE Monitor, a macroeconomic analysis site. Robini’s diagnosis:

Investors are now realizing that:

– We are at a “Minsky Moment”: the deleveraging of a credit boom driven asset bubble has just started

– This is an insolvency/credit, not just a liquidity, crisis.

– This credit crunch is much worse than the liquidity crisis in the 1998 LTCM episode

– You cannot solve insolvency problems with liquidity injections

– When you have unpriceable uncertainty rather than measurable risk investors panic; or as Bill Gross put it yesterday we are in a “Where is Waldo?” world now where subslime Waldos are popping out daily in the most unexpected places.

– The probability of a US hard landing is rising

Author

  • Alex Evans is founder of Larger Us, which explores how we can use psychology to reduce political tribalism and polarisation, a senior fellow at New York University, and author of The Myth Gap: What Happens When Evidence and Arguments Aren’t Enough? (Penguin, 2017). He is a former Campaign Director of the 50 million member global citizen’s movement Avaaz, special adviser to two UK Cabinet Ministers, climate expert in the UN Secretary-General’s office, and was Research Director for the Business Commission on Sustainable Development. Alex lives with his wife and two children in Yorkshire.


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