Andrew Marshall is the 87 year old Director of the Office for Net Assessment. This is how Wired described him back in 2003:
Known as Yoda in defense circles, Marshall doesn’t need to shout to be heard. Named director of the Office of Net Assessment by Richard Nixon and reappointed by every president since, the DOD’s most elusive official has become one of its most influential.
According to Fred Kaplan who profiled Marshall in his book Daydream Believers the key to Marshall’s longevity and influence is that he has:
built a far-flung network of acolytes and loyalists: officers whose unconventional projects he had encouraged and helped to fund; analysts whose work he had sponsored and whose ideas he had helped form; and high-ranking officials, as well as committee chairmen on Capitol Hill, who simply valued having a man of ideas so high up in the Pentagon. (h/t TPM)
ONA is the Pentagon’s think tank and looks 20 to 30 years in the future. The NIC futures work pales into comparison. Now thanks to TPM we can get an insight into one of the most secretive and innovative units inside the Pentagon.
The studies’ authors are generally listed as individual academics or outside contractors like the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank, government consulting giant Booz Allen Hamilton, or lesser-known firms like Scitor Corporation and IHS International. The first thing you notice is how broad their remit is – there is literally nothing they haven’t looked into: Some of the studies include:
September 2008
Rearmed Japan
Europe 2025: Mounting Security Challenges Amidst Declining Competitiveness
May 2008
Turkish-Iranian Relations: Fated Rivalry, Compelled Sympathy
August 2007
The Future Of Europe And Its Muslims: Four Scenarios
June 2007
The End of Religiously Motivated Warfare: Lessons From The Puritans And Beyond [Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments]
November 2000
Water As A Strategic Commodity In Asia
June 1996
China Contingencies And Scenarios: 2020
