As Jules’s post on the sudden descent into a shooting war in Georgia implies, one of the West’s principal reasons for being interested in Georgia is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline flows through it, bringing oil from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field in the Caspian to the Mediterranean coast in Turkey – handily avoiding Russian pipelines in the process.
Interestingly, the conflict in the Caucausus has kicked off at the same time as an explosion on the Turkish section of the pipeline has closed it down for the next 21 days. Kurdish rebels have claimed responsibility for the attack, but the cause of the explosion can’t be ascertained for sure until the fire (which is currently still burning) has been put out.
Ordinarily, say BP, one of the alternatives would be to shift oil from Azerbaijan via rail links through Georgia. Unfortunate, then, that according to energy analysts the conflict in South Ossetia makes that option look rather less attractive.
Suspension of the pipeline’s operation won’t have a massive effect on world markets, as it supplies a small proportion of total world supply. But its political importance – as a statement of intent towards diversified supplies and pipeline routes to the west – is much greater. With Kurdish rebels reportedly threatening more attacks, it’ll be interesting to see how things pan out from here…
