by David Steven | Dec 5, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity
What’s striking about the climate talks in Poznan is that (some) developed countries want a long-term goal, while (most) developing countries are only prepared to talk about the next few years. Here’s Xinhua:
The developed countries are seeking to set up a shared vision on long-term goal for emission cuts, saying that such a goal will set the direction for future actions.
Some industrialized countries believe that a 50-percent cut of emissions against the 1990 level by 2050 is necessary for the goal of preventing rising temperatures.
The developing nations, however, rejected such a global goal at this stage, arguing that such a vision is not feasible since there are no concrete plans for providing finance and technology required by the developing countries.
But really, it should be the other way round. Given that:
- A limited emissions ‘cake’ is available between now and, say, 2050 (assuming an eventual attempt to stablize atmospheric GHG concentrations).
- And that rich countries are consuming disportionate shares of that cake on every year.
- Then poor countries are likely to receive a smaller slice the longer it takes to start negotiating a comprehensive allocation.
Short term deals (Kyoto, Kyoto 2, Kyoto 3 etc) suit developed countries. A full-term deal would allow developing countries to understand then try and protect their long-term interests…
by Alex Evans | Nov 6, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity
Next week sees the publication of the International Energy Agency’s latest flagship World Energy Outlook, which has been heavily leaked to the Financial Times. The report makes the same point that I’ve been arguing since prices started to slide from their peak of $147 over the summer (to around $60 today): oil prices are going to go back up. A lot. As Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos summarise in the FT,
The world economy will witness a $2,000bn shift in wealth and power from oil-consuming countries to members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as oil prices rise to $200 a barrel by 2030.
The IEA says that Opec oil reserves are big and cheap enough to increase production and cap oil prices, but it warns: “Investment by these countries is assumed to be constrained by several factors, including conservative depletion policies and geopolitics. “There remains a real risk that underinvestment [bet-ween now and 2015] will cause an oil supply crunch” the report states…
In its report, the IEA sees oil prices reaching $200 by 2030, almost doubling last year’s forecast of $108 by the same year. The report suggests that current oil prices – below $70 a barrel and less than half their peak summer level – are a temporary effect of the economic crisis.
The $200 a barrel figure is the same one mooted by a Chatham House report on oil published in August, which shared the IEA’s concern that the investment needed to bring new production on stream just wasn’t happening fast enough. The IEA was already worried about that point when it published last year’s Outlook, remember – the fact that prices have crashes to less than half their peak level since then will hardly have helped to bring new investment on stream.
Exactly as with food prices, then, it’s the recent fall in prices that represents the blip – and the recent highs that represent the start of a long term trend. The IEA’s report is just the latest in a series of very good reasons why policymakers need to get their act together quickly on agreeing collective approaches to resource scarcity issues while the political heat on them is – for a little while – off.
But to repeat what I said in July, massive investment in new oil production just can’t be squared with what needs to happen on climate change. The global deal that we really need for managing energy security and competition for oil resources is a global framework for climate policy that manages the problem over the full term of its lifecycle – not just the next few years, as with Kyoto, as this is far too short term to give real investment certainty – and that has targets for all countries, not just developed ones.
That, of course, takes us straight back to David’s recent question on developing country participation. More on that in another post shortly…
by David Steven | Oct 21, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security, Global system, Influence and networks
In the summer, I gave a talk at the United Nations University G8 symposium on climate change, where I explored the threshold between conflict and cooperation on carbon control.
Belatedly, the talk is online – either as a pdf, or you can read the full text after the jump.
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by Leo Horn Phathanothai | Oct 16, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system
With a global recession looming, international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions may be in jeopardy, as concerns are voiced in the US, Canada and Europe about the wisdom of adopting measures that would impose an additional cost burden on already fragile economies. Such thinking is misguided, and it is dangerous. A recession may in fact ease the introduction of carbon emissions trading schemes.
At the recent EU summit in Brussels there was widespread reluctance to meet pledges all EU governments made last year to cut CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020. Eight Eastern European countries – including Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — released a joint statement urging the EU to balance the wish for cleaner air against “the need for sustainable economic growth” at a time of “serious economic and financial uncertainties.” Italy threw its weight behind these countries, threatening to veto the proposed EU plans.
Likewise in the US, top power industry executives seized the opportunity to lobby for delaying carbon emissions legislation, at the recent New York Utility Conference. More dramatically in Canada, the Liberals were dealt an electoral defeat on Wednesday largely on the basis of their strong advocacy in favour of a carbon tax (see story here).
All this backtracking is akin to forfeiting the forest for the tree. Financial crises are short-term phenomena, global warming on the other hand is with us for the long haul, and the window of opportunity for addressing it is fast narrowing. The prospect of economic recession does not in any way reduce the magnitude or the urgency of the climate problem, nor does it provide any compelling reason for delaying action. Or as EU President Barroso put it:
“Saving the planet is not an after-dinner drink, a digestif that you take or leave. Climate change does not disappear because of the financial crisis.
Moreover, as David Wheeler of the Center for Global Development argues, smart carbon regulation will be easiest, not hardest, to introduce during a recession, since a slowing economy emits less, and smart cap-and-trade regulation can “lock in” this head start on emissions reduction at almost no cost during the recession. His proposal for the US is to:
• Immediately pass a cap-and-trade bill that sets the initial total limit at the pre-recession emissions level, and schedule a progressive decline in the overall limit that will achieve the needed long-run goal.
• Establish an annual auction for 100% of the emissions permits.
• Set aside a healthy share of the auction proceeds to provide a compensating rebate for every American
In this way the consumer is shielded from cost increases, and the power provider incentivised to develop less carbon-intensive energy options for the future.
It is amply clear that big emitting developing countries such as China and India will not make significant commitments to curb their greenhouse gas emissions unless the US and EU lead by example. With only about a year to go before the new global deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol is due to be reached in Copenhagen conference, the US and EU have no room to falter. More than ever, political courage and leadership is needed to ensure global efforts to address climate change are not jeopardized.
by Alex Evans | Sep 23, 2008 | Influence and networks, UK
Listening to Gordon Brown’s speech today, Philip Stephens notes that “Mr Brown kept his audience in its comfort zone”:
Though he set out the challenges Britain faces in a period of tumultuous global upheaval, Mr Brown did little to challenge his audience’s preconception that the present mess was all the fault of greedy capitalists.
Reading that brought to mind another Labour Conference speech in times of global upheaval: Tony Blair’s back in 2001. Remember this?
This is a moment to seize. The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. Before they do, let us re-order this world around us.
I re-read the whole thing this afternoon, and was struck by a) its brilliance, b) its insight, c) how it soars compared to Brown’s speech today and d) the extent to which – in retrospect, with all that’s happened since – it shines with an eerie messianic fervour. It’s well worth another look: full text below the jump.
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