Those Iranian election results in full

by | Jun 13, 2009


Andrew Sullivan provides a helpful graph plotting the ratio of Ahmadinejad to Moussavi votes in six different counts. That ratio proves to be remarkably consistent at each count:

 

Sullivan’s conclusion:

They didn’t even attempt to disguise the fraud. Which, to me, tells me they panicked. This graph is a red flag to Iran and the world.

Update: Nate Silver’s done a fairly comprehensive rebuttal of this graph – see here. He concludes,

these results certainly do not prove that Iran’s election was clean. I have no particular reason to believe the results reported by the Interior Ministry. But I also don’t have any particular reason to disbelieve them, at least based on the statistical evidence … I am not suggesting that any and all statistical analysis purporting to show tampering in Iran’s election results will turn out to be fruitless. I am merely suggesting that this particular analysis is dubious; it is not a smoking gun.

Author

  • Alex Evans is founder of Larger Us, which explores how we can use psychology to reduce political tribalism and polarisation, a senior fellow at New York University, and author of The Myth Gap: What Happens When Evidence and Arguments Aren’t Enough? (Penguin, 2017). He is a former Campaign Director of the 50 million member global citizen’s movement Avaaz, special adviser to two UK Cabinet Ministers, climate expert in the UN Secretary-General’s office, and was Research Director for the Business Commission on Sustainable Development. Alex lives with his wife and two children in Yorkshire.


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