European security policy doesn’t exactly inspire big new ideas every day. So hats off to James Rogers, who has a very big idea indeed: the EU has been worrying about land forces too much, and needs to turn to naval strategy instead. Like Robert Kaplan, Rogers thinks that the Indian Ocean will be central to twenty-first century geopolitics:
All the major powers are now expanding their influence along the Eurasian coastal zone, a region rich in energy, raw materials and fertile land. Within this space, China, India, Russia and the United States have begun to reorient their foreign and security policies. Unfortunately, the EU’s main trade route – until now threatened only by pirates – ploughs through this littoral space and connects Europeans to the energy supplies of the Middle East and the manufacturing centres of China, South Korea and Japan. It carries a quarter of global maritime commerce, making it the most important trade line on Earth.
The region stretching from the Suez Canal to the city of Shanghai – and perhaps as far as Seoul – is therefore particularly critical to Europeans. But the same space is important to others too. With a rapidly growing navy, China has put together a “string of pearls” – naval stations, harbours and land-based infrastructure – to extend its maritime reach into the Indian Ocean, East Africa and the Middle East. Russia also has plans to build new naval stations around the Mediterranean and the Middle East, potentially in Syria and Yemen.
India has been busily kitting out its fleet with new aircraft carriers, submarines and stealth destroyers, which it claims are needed to complete its “manifest destiny” to control the Indian Ocean. And the United States has undertaken a “global posture review” since 2004, where it has repositioned many of its naval assets, away from Europe, and towards East Asia.
And what is the EU doing about this? Not much, other than its anti-piracy patrols off Somalia. Rogers thinks that’s the Union’s “most important” operation yet. I think he may be a bit over-excited (we let the pirates go free). But his long-term vision is compelling:
First, the EU needs to rethink certain parts of its foreign and security policy, and concentrate more on the affairs of the Eurasian coastal zone. Europeans need to build up strong partnerships with countries in key geopolitical nodes – like India, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore – in order to keep the peace in the region most likely to experience competition and disorder in the years ahead. This will allow the EU to prevent conflict and insecurity from threatening key European interests throughout the area.
Second, the EU should take part and lead more naval operations along its principal maritime trade route, particularly in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. The EU mission to quash piracy in the Gulf of Aden is just the beginning, and Europeans must step up their visibility throughout all the maritime approaches to European home waters. Increasingly, port calls, anti-piracy missions and surveillance and presence operations will all be required to uphold the peace.
Third, a European strategic defence review is needed to allow for the construction of common warship classes, which should replace the costly and inefficient mishmash of vessels currently operated by European fleets. An integrated EU coastguard should be put together to free up naval vessels in the Baltic and Mediterranean for use elsewhere. And ultimately, standing EU naval forces equipped with aircraft carriers and amphibious platforms for power projection into troublesome areas should also be developed and built.
It’s sound strategy, even if doesn’t feel that likely politically. But we will hear more of this Jolly Rogers.
