At the end of last year I offered ten foreign policy predictions for 2009. The first prediction was about Mexico:
The world’s leading narco state will, unnoticed, dissolve into total chaos destabilising the surrounding region.
In a early January 2009 John Robb suggested that Mexico would be an essential security threat to the United States:
The narco-insurgency in the northern provinces morphs into a national open source insurgency with thousands of small groups all willing to fight/corrupt/intimidate the government. Many, if not most, of these groups will be able to power themselves forward financially due to massive flows of money from black globalization. The result will be a diaspora north to the US to avoid the violence.
Since the beginning of 2009 more than 1,000 people have been killed in drug violence. In 2008 6,290 people were killed, double the 2007 death toll.
Since 1993 the City has been known for the violent deaths of hundreds of women – ‘las muertas de Juárez’ (The dead women of Juárez). According to Amnesty International , since February 2005 more than 370 bodies have been found, and over 400 women were still missing. Most of the cases remain unsolved.
In the next three weeks the Mexican Government is sending up to 5,000 new troops and federal police to the country’s most violent city, Ciudad Juárez , where law and order is on the brink of collapse.