Global Dashboard – Blog covering International affairs and global risks

Britain

Kosovo re-assessed?

January 12, 2011 | by Alistair Burnett | More on Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia | No comments

I’ve written on the BBC Editors site about whether the Kosovo intervention is being reassessed in the light of allegations against Prime Minister Thaci

Kosovo has been back on the front pages in recent weeks with lurid allegations against its Prime Minister and dominant politician, Hashim Thaci, accusing him of involvement in organised crime and even harvesting human organs for sale for profit.  Mr Thaci has denied the allegations. 

Mr Thaci has also been in the news as his party was accused of vote rigging in last month’s parliamentary elections which were the first organised by the Kosovo government. This week, the vote had to be rerun in some of Mr Thaci’s strongholds and a new government should be formed in the next few weeks. 

Why is this interesting to people who don’t follow affairs in south east Europe closely? Read More



A narrow political vision on Britain’s global role?

October 8, 2010 | by Alistair Burnett | More on Conflict and security, Global system, UK | One comment

Three weeks, three party conferences, but what did they tell us about where the parties see Britain’s place in the world?

First up were the Liberal Democrats in Liverpool.Their first conference as a party of government and junior Foreign Office Minister, Jeremy Browne, who described himself as the longest serving Liberal in the Foreign Office since 1919, gave the foreign affairs speech.

He made the now obligatory reference to the rise of China, India, Brazil and other powers and said Britain and Europe can’t stop this, but instead should seek to make it a force for good.He also argued that Britain still has a lot to offer and should be a catalyst for this new world order. It was short on specifics or examples of how this could be done, and how different is this from David Miliband’s talk when he was Foreign Secretary, that Britain should be a ‘global hub’?

The Lib Dems’ junior Defence Minister, Nick Harvey, focussed on one of the party’s keynote policies – a review of the need for a like-for-like replacement of Trident. In his speech, Nick Harvey argued for delaying the decision until after the next election, but his reasons appeared less about giving more time to consideration of the options and more about wrong footing the Labour Party. An argument that could give the impression that debate on a fundamental issue like the future of Britain’s nuclear weapons capability is being used as a tool to embarrass political opponents.

Next to Manchester and Labour’s conference. Being the first since losing power, it, perhaps understandably, witnessed quite a bit of raking over the recent past – both from internal critics of the last government and from former ministers defending their records.

A fringe meeting on the future of defence policy I went to heard concerns from trade unions and defence contractors about the potential impact on jobs and the industrial base of the defence cuts expected from the ongoing Strategic Defence and Security Review. The former Defence Secretary, Bob Ainsworth, was on the panel and on the defensive, responding to questions about his record with jibes back at some of his questioners.

The thing lacking was much discussion of what kind of role Britain should play in the world and what kind of military forces will be required for that. The defeat of David Miliband for the leadership and his decision to return to the backbenches inevitably meant there was less focus on his foreign policy speech to the conference than on discussion of his legacy, including as Foreign Secretary. On The World Tonight, journalist Ann McElvoy argued his main legacy was that in the wake of the Iraq war, which many believe was a big mistake, he made the case for Britain to retain its global reach and the need for intervention when the time is right, especially in Afghanistan.

On to the Conservatives in Birmingham.In the wake of the leak to the Daily Telegraph of Defence Secretary Liam Fox’s letter to David Cameron arguing against deep cuts to his budget, the mood among the Tories’ defence team seemed more upbeat, suggesting their rearguard action ahead of the Comprehensive Spending Review may be having some success. And, almost inevitably, discussion over Britain’s role in the world at the conference was dominated by the defence review as it nears completion.

The defence fringe I went to was a bit more wide-ranging than its Labour equivalent. The Defence Minister, Peter Luff, said the government is looking to France to be a strategic partner along with the US. He also suggested Britain would seek to work with France to develop new weapons systems bi-laterally, rather than enter new multilateral projects like the Eurofighter ‘Typhoon’. But the argument over what role Britain should play in the world came mainly from Nick Witney of the European Council on Foreign Relations rather than the politicians on the panel.

All this left me thinking that if the party conferences reflect the way the main parties are looking at Britain’s future global role, it does seem their focus is still very much on the defence review and cuts, rather than the more fundamental question of what role the UK should play in the changing world order. If there is a wider debate going on about what the UK’s military forces should be for, rather than simply what can be afforded, it seems to be going on largely behind the scenes. Whether that is wise is another matter.



The Failure of Quiet Diplomacy

December 22, 2008 | by Charlie Edwards | More on Africa | No comments

We have posted various snippets about the tragedy of Zimbabwe. The Times expresses its dismay at the  failure of British diplomacy to do anything. Today’s Leader neatly captures the British Government’s empty rhetoric

The world has watched the slide towards starvation and collapse in despair. At each stage, Britain, the former colonial ruler has muffled its reaction. Diplomats appeared to think that quiet diplomacy in tandem with Zimbabwe’s neighbours would achieve more than an open call for Mr Mugabe’s overthrow, which, the Foreign Office believed, would be used by the President as proof that colonialists were plotting against him.

Mr Mugabe has made a mockery of African neighbours who urged him to negotiate with his opponents. He has danced rings around the so-called international community. He has outwitted the political Opposition, scorned the result of an election and killed his defenceless compatriots. He is now convinced that he is untouchable, that he cannot be removed from power either by his opponents in Zimbabwe or by any external force.

So far, he has been proved right. Harsh words at international meetings have had no effect. Isolation makes no difference to a country where money no longer has value and government no longer functions. It is high time David Miliband recognised that international intervention is the only course now available to save more than seven million people from catastrophe. Britain’s reticence has been not only fatuous; it has encouraged Mr Mugabe in his hubris and the pampered party and military elite to believe they can hang on and outlast their enemies.

Britain is guilty of more than feeble diplomacy. It has failed to ensure all the loopholes are closed in this country. The United States Treasury has named some 21 companies that it has placed on its blacklist that are still trading with Zimbabwe. Disgracefully, many of these are in Britain or in terrorities controlled by Britain.

The Prime Minister has declared “enough is enough”. He should call for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and authorise armed intervention. As The Times suggests

There are enough legal powers, including the visible threat Zimbabwe’s collapse now poses to the health and security of its neighbours. Mr Miliband should respond to Mr Mugabe’s odious claim with his own démarche. The world can take his despairing country from him. And it must.



URBEINGRECORDED » Discontinuity & Opportunity in a Hyper-Connected World
Great discussion of complexity and network theory and its relevance to global risks, from Chris Arkenberg

The Emissions Gap Report
This publication aims to assess the following questions: are countries’ pledges of action collectively consistent with and, if implemented, likely to achieve the 2˚C and 1.5˚C temperature goals? If not, how big is the gap between emission levels consistent with these temperature goals and the emissions expected as a result of the pledges?

The Spectator runs false sea-level claims on its cover
These claims rely on misinterpretations of scientific data so grave that even an arts graduate such as Fraser Nelson should have been able to spot them.

Europe’s Insult Diplomacy - Infographic
British Prime Minister David Cameron called French President Nicolas Sarkozy “a hidden dwarf” as part of a joke told to a journalist. German Chancellor Angela Merkel referred to Sarkozy as “Mr. Bean,” while Sarkozy called her “La Boche,” or the Kraut. Spanish Prime Minister José Zapatero is “too pink” because of the high proportion of women in his cabinet, said Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. And Berlusconi’s opinion of the euro? “A disaster,” he said, that has “screwed everybody.”

Solar Power's Good News
The White House has challenged the solar industry to produce clean electricity at $1 per watt. It has also set a national goal to achieve 80 percent clean energy use by 2035…The good news is that researchers are racing toward that goal at an impressive rate.

BBC News - Viewpoint: Is the alcohol message all wrong?
"The effects of alcohol on behaviour are determined by cultural rules and norms, not by the chemical actions of ethanol."

Something's Happening Here - NYT - Tom Friedman
When you see spontaneous social protests erupting from Tunisia to Tel Aviv to Wall Street, it’s clear that something is happening globally that needs defining

Foreign Aid Set to Take Hit in U.S. Budget Crisis - NYTimes.com
America’s budget crisis at home is forcing the first significant cuts in overseas aid in nearly two decades

Israel - Adrift at Sea Alone - NYTimes.com
Tom Friedman bemoans "the most diplomatically inept and strategically incompetent government in Israel’s history"

Eurozone: A nightmare scenario - FT.com
How it could all go pear-shaped - your cut-out-and-keep flow chart guide

Sharp fall in poor countries' dependency on foreign aid says ActionAid report
Aid dependency among 54 of the world’s poorest countries has declined by a third over the last decade, according to a new report from ActionAid.

World environment programs in budget crosshairs | Reuters
Global conservation programs are prime targets for budget-cutting: they sit at the crossroads of two things Americans dislike spending money on, aid and environment.

Attack of the Superweed - BusinessWeek
widespread use of Roundup has led to the evolution of far-tougher-to-eradicate strains of weeds

Jon Stewart Says Rick Perry Is the Candidate Republicans Want, and Deserve
Laugh out loud funny

Global reach is the prize at Busan - Resources - Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
Jonathan Glennie and Andrew Rogerson on what you need to know ahead of the big aid effectiveness summit

When Bloggers Don’t Follow the Script, to ConAgra’s Chagrin - NYTimes.com
Ha ha ha - epic PR #fail

Obama backs down on tighter smog regulations | World news | The Guardian
In case you missed it. Yes we can...

Wikileaked cable: executions of children by US forces in Iraq
Wikileaked cable with harrowing reports of  US forces handcuffing and then killing 10 people - including children aged 5 years, 3 years and 5 months.

BBC News - Tests show fastest way to board passenger planes
The way airlines board planes turns out to be the least efficient

New sources of aid: Charity begins abroad | The Economist
"The establishment donors’ aid monopoly is finished."

Who Doomed Sarah Palin's Presidential Dream? | TPMDC
Where did it all go wrong for Sarah?

The Intergenerational Foundation
"We believe that each generation should pay its own way, which is not happening at present."

Should we have a land value tax? - MoneyWeek
Discussion of pros and cons for the UK, following an article by OECD's chief economist in Prospect

Toward a Post-2015 Development Paradigm | Centre for International Governance Innovation | Centre pour l'innovation dans la gouvernance internationale
12 new development goals are proposed to replace the MDGs from 2015 - the outcome of an IFRC / CIGI conference at Bellagio

China Gets (Needlessly) Defensive Over Famine in Africa - China Real Time Report - WSJ
Germany's Africa policy coordinator causes dispute by singling out Chinese landgrabs as a culprit in the Horn of Africa famine

Latin America: A toxic trade - FT.com
Must read broadside against probably the most stupid and avoidable public policy screw-up in recent memory: the war on drugs

The intellectual collapse of left and right - FT.com
Michael Lind on how the economic inclusion narratives of centre left and centre right are simultaneously imploding - must read

Julia Gillard back to rock-bottom: Newspoll | The Australian
Bad news for supporters of green taxes and decisive action on climate change

Oxfam’s looking for a new Head of Research
A plum role is up for grabs

The global crisis of institutional legitimacy | Felix Salmon
"Our hearts want government to come through and save the economy. But our heads know that it’s not going to happen."

UBS' George Magnus On Marxist Existential Crises And The "Convulsions Of A Political Economy" | ZeroHedge
Not every day you see investment banks publishing detailed analysis of Karl Marx

Food Prices Could Hit Tipping Point for Global Unrest | Wired Science | Wired.com
New quant research on thresholds over which high food prices cause riots

Ambassador Locke Picks Up His Own Coffee, Gains 'Hero' Status Among Chinese : The Two-Way : NPR
Some pictures of the brand new U.S. ambassador to China are causing quite a stir.

Jon Stewart | Ron Paul | Michele Bachmann | Mediaite
Jon Stewart breaks down the state of play on the Republican Presidential race

The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution › When?
Some properly out of the box thinking from Vinay Gupta. Must-read.

England’s riots: If the UK were a fragile state… | Dan Smith's blog
By the head of a leading peacebuilding NGO

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder From 9/11 Still Haunts - NYTimes.com
At least 10,000 New Yorkers still have PTSD from 9/11

The unlikely social network fuelling the Tottenham riots « The Urban Mashup Blog
Not Twitter, not Facebook but.... Blackberry Messenger

Mapping world food price volatility | Nourishing the Planet
Clickable map of global food price hotspots

Will the 2012 Earth Summit be a flop? > From Poverty to Power
Great summary of the state of play on Rio 2012 from Oxfam's Sarah Best

Articles & Publications
Sustainable Development Goals – a useful outcome from Rio+20?

Recent months have seen increasing interest in the idea that Rio+20 could be the launch pad for a new set of ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs).  But what would SDGs cover, what would a process to define and then implement them look like, and what would some of the key political challenges be? This short briefing [...]

Creating Consensus on a post-2015 framework for development

Any global framework for development which is agreed after 2015 will be a political deal between states. This paper looks at recent trends in policy and politics in emerging economies and traditional donors to assess where a consenus might lie. It suggests some principles for a post-2015 agreement which emerge from recent policy developments

A post-2015 Global Development Agreement: why, who what?

Paper from ODI and UNDP, authored by Claire Melamed and Andy Sumner, summarising the evidence on the impact of the MDGs, and looking at current trends in poverty and in global governance that will affect the shape and the scope of any future agreement on global development.

Resource Scarcity, Fair Shares and Development

Why resource scarcity will be a game changer for global justice agendas, and what aid donors, NGOs and other development opinion formers need to do about it. WWF / Oxfam report by Alex Evans.

Making Rio 2012 Work: Setting the stage for global economic, social and ecological renewal

The Rio 2012 sustainable development summit is at risk of being the latest in a long line of damp squibs on environmental multilateralism – but could still make real progress, if it focuses on greening growth and building resilience to shocks and stresses, and above all faces up to the issues of fair shares that arise in a world of limits.

Governance for a Resilient Food System

How national and international governance systems need to be reconfigured to meet the challenges of food security in a world of tighter supply and demand balances and increasing volatility. Report for Oxfam’s new Grow campaign by Alex Evans. (May 2011)

Running out of everything: how scarcity drives crisis in Pakistan

Article on scarcity of resources in Pakistan and what it means for the country.

Economics for a world with limits

Text of speech by Alex Evans to Institute for New Economic Thinking annual conference at Bretton Woods; the YouTube video is here. (April 2011) Download Speech

Unscrambling the price spike

Article published on China Dialogue on reasons for the new food price spike, including potential implications of the current drought in China. (February 2011) Download Article

2020 Development Futures

Eight critical uncertainties for development over the next decade, and ten recommendations for what ActionAid – who commissioned this report – should do to prepare for them

American Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Article published in World Politics Review on current American foreign policy

The World in 2020 – Geopolitical and Trends Analysis

Report asking how organisations can prosper in what will be a turbulent period for world order

Globalization and Scarcity

Center on International Cooperation report on what forms of multilateral cooperation are needed to manage scarcity of resources

Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict

Background paper on whether resource scarcity and climate change will cause increased violent conflict

Organizing for Influence: UK Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Chatham House report on how the UK’s new coalition government should upgrade and reform the way Britain conducts foreign policy

The Long Crisis Seminar

Introductory remarks by David Steven at a Brookings Institution seminar on risk and resilience in the global system (March 2010)

Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008). Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Looking Forward: how do we build resilience?

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).

Shooting the Rapids: multilateralism and global risks

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, commissioned by Gordon Brown and presented to heads of state at the Progressive Governance Summit (April 2008).

Beyond a Zero-Sum Game on Climate Change

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven, as part of the British Council’s Transatlantic Network 2020 book ‘Talking Trans-Atlantic’ (March 2008).

From Bali to Copenhagen: towards an endgame for global climate policy?

Article by Alex Evans for the Environmental Policy & Law Journal (January 2008).

Climate Change: The State of the Debate

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the London Accord (December 2007).

The Post-Kyoto Bidding War: bringing developing countries into the fold

New paper by Alex Evans on climate policy after 2012 from the Center on International Cooperation (October 2007).

Alternative CSR: the Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Chapter on the FCO from Manchester University Press’s Alternative Comprehensive Spending Review, by David Steven (September 2007).

Fixing the UK’s Foreign Policy Apparatus: A Memo to Gordon Brown

Note by Alex Evans and David Steven about how to restructure the UK’s foreign policy system in order to manage trans-boundary global risks better (April 2007).

Evaluation and the New Public Diplomacy

Talk given by David Steven at the Wilton Park conference: The Future of Public Diplomacy. Focuses on strategies to drive public diplomacy to the heart of the foreign policy armoury (March 2007).

Articles and Publications

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Key Posts
Cheap food: bad. Expensive food: terrible. Why the FAO’s glass is always empty8

It’s interesting to look back a few years – to when the world was worried that food was too cheap, not too expensive. In 2004, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization looked back on a long bear market for food: forty years in which real prices of agricultural commodities had fallen 2% per year, or [...]

How many people are hungry?3

The good news: poverty is in retreat. The bad news: hunger isn’t.  That’s the headline finding for the first Millennium Development Goal , which aims to halve the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day and the proportion of people living in hunger between 1990 and 2015. Great strides have been made [...]

“Freeing the entire human race from want”2

The MDGs are so over Having just been rude about one World Bank report, here’s a positive review of another – the Global Monitoring Report 2011, which the Bank produces jointly with the IMF. The GMR updates progress against the Millennium Development Goals – targets that were set as the culmination of a push throughout [...]

21 years ahead of its time5

A 1989 article on ‘the global teenager’ in Whole Earth Review was way ahead of its time in identifying the crux of what today’s youth bulge means for global change

Is it time for Sustainable Development Goals?5

The pros and cons of a new global set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and how they might work in practice

The one book you must read over the summer9

Mark Lynas’s new book The God Species is a must-read for environmentalists

Fair shares in a world of limits: the new front line for development-

Thoughts after from a joint WWF / Oxfam seminar on resource scarcity, fair shares and development.

What the ‘powershift’ narrative overlooks on US-China relations-

The ‘powershift’ narrative about US-China relations obscures how much they have in common: unsustainable growth paths, shaky financial sectors, political sclerosis, massive inequality, reliance on imported resources and above all their status as the two principal obstacles to collective action on shared global risks.