Not long ago, readers will recall, Richard wrote a downcast post explaining why think tank reports are often condemned to live out their lives in a dusty cupboard, unwanted and unread. So it’s a pleasant duty to report a happy tale of think tank research having a genuinely decisive and traceable global impact – within 10 days of publication.
With the prospect of a good northern hemisphere wheat harvest getting ever more probable, the really big outstanding worry on food prices in the immediate term has been rice prices (which have trebled just this year) – especially since cyclone Nargis hasn’t done Burma’s production figures any good whatsoever.
But as Tom Slayton and Peter Timmer of the Center for Global Development pointed out in a briefing paper published on 9 May, there was also a potential solution: export some of Japan’s 1.5 million tons of surplus rice. Problem was, they explained, Japan couldn’t do this without permission from the US (the original source of much of the rice) – and without that permission, the rice would be fed to pigs and chickens in Japan.
Fast forward to ten days later – and Japan’s vice minister for agriculture was announcing plans to export 200,000 tons of rice to the Philipinnes, one of the most over-stretched rice importers, "as fast as possible", with US officials having worked flat out to make it happen (when they could have used WTO rules to block the move). While much more will need to be done, the impact is already clear, as the authors explain in a CGD blog post :
Before we released our CGD Note last week, world rice prices were hovering above $1,000 per ton (the FOB price for Thai 100% B, a widely accepted market marker). Word that Japan might unload its surplus contributed to subsequent price declines in both Bangkok and Chicago. We hope that today’s news — and subsequent announcements by other countries in a position to export surplus rice in the days and weeks ahead — will lead to further declines that will help to lower world rice prices closer to levels that are affordable to the world’s poor.
The post explains more about how the process happened so fast, including tracing how the story retained momentum through op-ed pieces and well-timed Congressional testimony. As the authors say, "Japan and the U.S. should take a deserved bow for their quick actions ". But it’s Slayton and Timmer themselves who really deserve the curtain call here. Bravo.
