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North America

Would you ever ask a man that question?

August 14, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Influence and networks, North America, Off topic | No comments

Here’s a great Hillary Clinton moment:

Interviewer: Okay. Which designers do you prefer?

Hillary Clinton: What designers of clothes?

Interviewer: Yes.

Hillary Clinton: Would you ever ask a man that question?

Interviewer: Probably not. Probably not.

(Stolen from @HayesBrown Twitter feed.)



“Cool UN”: multilateralism gets hot and sweaty

May 29, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Cooperation and coherence, North America, Off topic | 2 comments

The following email was circulated to UN staff in New York today.

As summer approaches in the Northern Hemisphere and the mercury rises, it is time again to get ready for “Cool UN”, a practical way for the UN to demonstrate its commitment to using energy wisely.  As in previous years, from 1 June, thermostats at New York Headquarters will be set to 77 degrees Fahrenheit / 25 degrees Celsius in offices and to 75 degrees Fahrenheit / 24 degrees Celsius in conference rooms.  Once more, we are also inviting the landlords of our leased spaces to join us in this effort.

So far, so easy to mock.  But there is more… so much more.

Over the years, we have learned that not all colleagues agree on what constitutes a comfortable temperature. Depending on their cultural background, what is pleasant for one person can be “borderline” for the next. It is also a reality that, in some buildings, either because of the direction an office faces or possibly due to older ducting, the consistency of temperature can be difficult to finesse.

Damn that combination of aged ducting and cultural pluralism.  What can the UN do?

We nonetheless do our best to find an acceptable compromise and, in setting the thermostats, we are guided by temperature ranges recommended by international human comfort indexes.

International human what?

The idea is simple: Rather than having to bulk up on clothing in the summer because the air conditioning is too cold inside, we dress according to the season, keep the thermostat a bit higher and save energy.

During the “Cool UN” initiative, therefore, staff are encouraged to dress in lighter clothing appropriate for a business setting, including national dress, so as to remain comfortable.

My despair is complete.  Oh no, there’s more.

Increasingly, the “Cool UN” practice is being echoed by other UN agencies and offices away from Headquarters.  Together we can set an example.

That’s so true.  This is an example of how not write an email, for a start.



So Conrad Black, tell us what you really think about France…

May 22, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks, North America, Off topic | No comments

A while back I posted an excerpt from an essay by George Orwell about Hitler that, for me, was a perfect piece of political commentary. It was concise, sharp and witty even though it was written during the Second World War. Today, I have stumbled across a piece of political writing that has all the opposite characteristics. In an op-ed on the G8 Conrad Black – the press magnate, peer and former convict – abuses almost all the major economies. But he saves his nastiest paragraph for France:

Among the traditional Great Powers, the grand prize for purblindness goes to the inimitable French, who have elected an unmitigated cipher as president on a platform of sharply higher taxes, bigger deficits, indiscriminate pump-priming, and further concessions to the solid majority of public-sector employees and welfare recipients. A new page will be turned in flogging those who earn the money, and pouring largesse on the unproductive, regardless of merit. Never in its history, apart from the capture of the mountebank Emperor Napoleon III at Sedan by Bismarck’s armies, and when the Third Republic voted itself out of existence at the Vichy casino in 1940 under the jackboots of the returning German army, has France committed such an act of self-emasculation.

Come now Conrad, why be so coy?



In praise of Brooklyn

May 18, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on North America, Off topic | One comment

This is a bit of a diversion from the normal Global Dashboard diet, but as a Brooklyn resident I cannot help reproducing parts of a sterling defense of NYC’s better borough from 1946, dredged up by the Paris Review:

Walt Whitman described Brooklyn as “the city of homes and churches.” And it is true. View any Brooklyn-bound rush-hour subway crowd. The workday is at its fever-wracked end. Fathers, husbands, wives and loving children are anxious to reach the comfort and solace of their families. They want to take their ties off and open their collars. They want to get into their slippers. They want to listen to their radios; to laugh with the high-priced comedians, to weep with the maudlin true-life-story actors. To outsmart the experts. And what is happening in Manhattan across the river at the precise moment? Bartenders are setting them up again. Showgirls are tiredly getting into their muslin and crepe de Chine for another gay evening of smiling at out-of-town buyers on the loose. Waiters are moodily turning the table­cloths and breathing on the silver. Man­hattan flexes its muscles for a night of gaudy and artificial fun, while the good burghers in Brooklyn relax and act with quiet dignity like human beings. For Brooklyn has a heritage of culture and charming society to uphold. It was of national importance when men like Henry Ward Beecher mounted the pul­pit of Brooklyn’s Plymouth Church and gave forth a fiery sermon damning slav­ery. The effect is still felt on every young student today, for the colony’s first free public school was opened in Brooklyn in 1661, fathering the modern-day pub­lic-school system in New York City. These are facts not easily overlooked.

Nor is the American premier of the hot dog to be lightly scorned. Here is a delicacy which brings enjoyment to all classes of people—the rich, the needy; the bright; the dull; the beautiful, the plain. Where was this savory social leveler first introduced to America? On a Brooklyn sand bar known as Coney Island, “the world’s largest playground.” A hearty German baker, Charles Feltman, is reputed to have laid the first made-in-America frankfurter tenderly between the fluffy halves of a soft roll, dabbing its succulent body with mustard, back in the happy days circa 1870. To this day, Feltman’s restaurant is renowned for its food and atmosphere.

The piece goes on about how good Brooklyn is for some time, and ends with a fine flourish:

In other, and terser, words, Brooklyn is quite a place. True, like any large community, it has its slums, its shabby and seedy districts, its low-down bars, its smoky and dirty industrial centers, its percentage of honky-tonk, its share of crime and lawlessness. There is as yet no established heaven on earth.

Brooklyn is too big, too virile to be pushed around. And much too proud and accomplished to be ignored by Manhattan. For Brooklyn is the sturdy base upon which frail and flimsy Manhattan rests. And, if in the stealth of a dark and quiet night a bunch of Brooklyn boys were to snip the bridges which shackle Manhattan to us and let the whole dang island float off to sea and destruction, it would serve Manhattan right. It was bought in a crooked deal in the first place.



Make way for the Local President!

April 25, 2012 | by Alex Evans | More on North America, Off topic | No comments

All the current furore about the doings of US Secret Service agents is likely to cause a few chuckles among their sister services in other countries, who tend to regard their American counterparts with a mixture of respect and deep irritation – the latter on the basis of a rather full-on approach to their protection duties that can, now and again, come across as perhaps just a little arrogant.

The best story I heard about this tendency, told to me by a close protection officer from a different country while I was at an intergovernmental meeting, goes like this:

During President Bush’s 4 hour visit to Uganda in 2003, he and President Museveni went to visit The AIDS Support Organisation (TASO), which is a regular fixture on the itinerary of any dignitary visiting Kampala. The whole place was mobbed, and at one point President Museveni got detached from President Bush while working the crowd.

Showing that quiet tact and diplomacy for which the Secret Service is famed, US agents pitched in to help reunite the two heads of state. As they cleared a path for Museveni through the crowd, one of them was heard to bellow, “Out of the way please! The Local President is coming through!

Completely unconfirmable, obviously, but too good not to share…



It’s only ten days to UN Jazz Day!

April 20, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Global system, North America, Off topic | One comment

Jazz has inspired some great writing.  And this.

In November 2011, during the UNESCO General Conference, the international community proclaimed 30 April as “International Jazz Day”. This International Day will bring together communities, schools, artists, historians, academics, and jazz enthusiasts all over the world to celebrate and learn about the art of jazz, its roots, its future and its impact. This important international art form will be celebrated for promoting peace, dialogue among cultures, diversity, and respect for human rights and human dignity, eradicating discrimination, promoting freedom of expression, fostering gender equality, and reinforcing the role of youth for social change.

Yes, hepcats, the UN is digging jazz like never before.

By celebrating International Jazz Day, UNESCO intends to:

  • Celebrate the unique musical style that jazz represents!
  • Raise international awareness of the need for intercultural dialogue and mutual understanding;
  • Mobilize the intellectual community, decision-makers, cultural entrepreneurs, cultural and educational institutions and the media to promote jazz-related values as a vector of UNESCO’s mandate, pioneering role and intellectual mission;
  • Reinforce international cooperation and communication in the field of jazz music.

I’d devote a bit more time to mocking this (especially that exclamation mark) but as the album cover at the top of the post demonstrates, there’s a long history of jazz-multilateral-policy fusion.   Long may it continue.  Just try to keep the syncopated rhythms a little further away from the UN bullet points…



Wiliam Hague never did this

April 16, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, Off topic | One comment

Hillary Clinton, out on the town in Colombia this weekend:

gty hillary clinton columbia jt 120415 wblog Hillary Clinton Dances the Night Away in Colombia



Newt Gingrich’s big multilateral idea: guns for all!

April 15, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Global system, North America, Off topic | No comments

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/files/1newt1.jpg

Newt Gingrich, who is still hanging on to his presidential ambitions, has a long record of interest in the United Nations.  In the post-Iraq era he was, by Bush-era Republican standards, a bit of UN-booster and led a commission that recommended increasing funding for the organization’s peacekeeping and human rights monitoring.  Over the last year, however, he has mainly mentioned the UN when he’s needed an easy political target, and talked about stopping its funding.  Yesterday, he adopted a third strategy: advocating positive engagement at the UN as a way to spread guns.

Newt Gingrich accused the National Rifle Association of being “too timid” in a Friday speech to the group.

Desperate for attention and trying to get back into a conversation that has passed him by, the still-technically-running candidate said he will submit a treaty to the United Nations that would make the right to bear arms a universal human right.

“Far fewer women would be raped. Far fewer children would be killed…and far fewer dictators would survive if people had the right to bear arms everywhere on the planet,” Gingrich said, earning a standing ovation from a crowd of thousands. “We should say the second amendment is an amendment for all mankind.”

“Let’s take the George Soros’ and the Hillary Clintons’ head on,” he added.

Now, that’s what I call arms control.



The Economist scythes through all the nonsense about the World Bank

March 30, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Africa, Cooperation and coherence, Economics and development, Global system, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America | No comments

The Economist favors Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to take over at the World Bank.  In takes just four paragraphs (one of them mildly brutal, one of them extremely so) to ram home the argument:

The World Bank is the world’s premier development institution. Its boss needs experience in government, in economics and in finance (it is a bank, after all). He or she should have a broad record in development, too. Ms Okonjo-Iweala has all these attributes, and Colombia’s José Antonio Ocampo has a couple. By contrast Jim Yong Kim, the American public-health professor whom Barack Obama wants to impose on the bank, has at most one.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala is in her second stint as Nigeria’s finance minister. She has not broken Nigeria’s culture of corruption—an Augean task—but she has sobered up its public finances and injected a measure of transparency. She led the Paris Club negotiations to reschedule her country’s debt and earned rave reviews as managing director of the World Bank in 2007-11. Hers is the CV of a formidable public economist.

Mr Ocampo was also finance minister, though his time in office, 1996-98, saw the budget deficit balloon. He ran the mildly statist UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. His is the CV of the international bureaucrat.

Mr Kim, the head of a university in New England, has done a lot of good things in his life, but the closest he has come to running a global body was as head of HIV/AIDS at the World Health Organisation—not a post requiring tough choices between, say, infrastructure, health and education. He pioneered trials of aid programmes before they became fashionable and set up an outfit called Partners in Health which does fine work in Haiti and Peru. But this is a charity, not a development bank. Had Mr Obama not nominated him, he would be on no one’s shortlist to lead the World Bank. (Indeed he is a far worse example of Western arrogance than Christine Lagarde, whom the Europeans shoehorned into the IMF job last year: the French finance minister plainly had the CV for the job.)

Ouch.



The state of peacekeeping: NATO retreats, the UN hangs tough and the African Union advances

March 14, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Africa, Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, North America | One comment

There’s been talk of speeding up the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan this week.  France is hurrying for the exit.  On a recent visit to Brussels, I found that many NATO diplomats were frank about their desire to get the Afghan withdrawal over and done with (although there were responsible voices urging caution too).  As Jake Sherman and I note in a new paper for ZIF, NATO’s drawdown and moves to cut back UN peace operations will have a big impact on the global security landscape: 

Since the late 1990s, two big institutional players have dominated international peace operations. NATO deployed major military missions in the Balkans and Afghanistan, while the United Nations was in the lead almost everywhere else – with a focus on Africa and the Middle East. Other organizations, most notably the African and European Unions, also played an active part in peacekeeping but none have come close to NATO and the UN in terms of deployments. In late 2011, there were just over 260,000 soldiers and police officers on duty in peace operations worldwide. Over 140,000 of these were under NATO command (the vast majority in Afghanistan) while nearly 100,000 were serving with the UN.

Yet, peace operations may be on the verge of a period of deep change. NATO forces are beginning to pull back from Afghanistan. The UN is also likely to make significant cuts to some long-standing missions in the next two to three years, shrinking its forces in the Congo, Haiti and West Africa. New NATO or UN peacekeepers may be needed elsewhere, not least in response to turbulence in the Middle East. But there are strong financial pressures on both organizations to limit their overall deployments.

Those financial pressures (which I’ve highlighted before) are mounting.  Bruce Jones has a piece in World Politics Review in which he argues that the UN operations proved suprisingly resilient over the last year in places like Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti and the Congo.  But this better-than-expected performance has gone unremarked:

Rather than talking about the effects of operations, diplomats and officials have developed one obsession: what operations cost.

From 2008 to 2010, the global economic downturn had only a marginal effect on peacekeeping. Western powers, led by the Obama administration, remained ready to fund the bulk of the U.N. and AU operations, while also sustaining NATO deployments. This has started to change over the past year as the financial crisis has made itself felt in the world of peace operations.

In New York, 2011 saw a fierce debate over the rate of reimbursements to the U.N.’s troop contributors — still primarily from Asia, Africa and Latin America. For the past decade, the troop suppliers have received just more than $1,000 per month per soldier. Last summer, they demanded a 57 percent increase. Western governments pushed back, eventually agreeing to a temporary deal for a 7 percent hike.

Jones rightly argues that governments should think about the strategic advantages of peacekeeping as well as the financial implications.  But, as Sherman and I argue, NATO’s drawdown and the UN’s constraints create space for other organizations to play a greater role in peace operations.

Over the last year the African Union has expanded it forces in Somalia – now mandated to grow to 17,000 personnel – while taking an increasingly robust approach to Islamist militias. AU forces gradually secured control of Mogadishu after prolonged block-to-block fighting, despite taking significant casualties.

Responding to events in Syria, the Arab League launched its first peace operation since the 1970s at the end of 2011. Its observer mission – meant to oversee the withdrawal of Syrian forces from urban areas – was quickly improvised and deeply flawed. But the League could well deploy more operations in the future.

We cite a number of other non-Western organizations, like ASEAN, that seem to be edging towards a greater role in peacekeeping.  Does that mean that NATO and UN officials can go home and take a nap?  No chance:

Yet, organizations such as the AU and Arab League cannot become peacekeeping powerhouses on their own. The AU has had missions in the field for nearly a decade, but it has often struggled to get the equipment it needs and to build up its headquarters capacity. Its mission in Darfur received support from the EU, UN and NATO, and was converted into an AU-UN mission in 2008. Its operation in Somalia relies on the UN for its supplies, while the EU is involved in training Somali soldiers in Uganda. After its initial foray into Syria, the Arab League requested UN assistance in deploying any larger peacekeeping mission.

So the next generation of peace operations is likely to be based on innovative inter-organizational cooperation. What forms will future missions take, and how will organizations pool their resources?

Read the rest of our paper for some ideas on the topic.



Obama, Cameron, Churchill, and the Right-Wing Echo Chamber

March 14, 2012 | by David Steven | More on North America, UK | No comments

Our friends at National Review’s The Corner – America’s foremost Conservative group blog – were devastated on Britain’s behalf at the disrespect Barack Obama showed “America’s closest ally” in his early days in office.

In particular, the decision to return the Churchill bust had them flogging each other into paroxysms of indignation. “The President has never even mentioned the Anglo-American alliance in a major policy speech, and has little affinity for Britain,” complained Nile Gardiner.

“How can you explain a policy toward Britain that makes no strategic or moral sense?” asked Charles Krauthammer. “And even if you can, how do you explain the gratuitous slaps to the Czechs, Poles, Indians, and others? Perhaps when an Obama Doctrine is finally worked out, we shall learn whether it was pique, principle, or mere carelessness.”

The ‘Churchill’s bust’ meme has recurred regularly ever since, as a symbol of a relationship that is irretrievably broken. Here’s race-baiter Mark Steyn sewing it into a 2009 piece on Muslim-take-over, in which he suggests that, due to Churchill’s views on Islam, “ the bust will almost certainly be arrested at Heathrow and deported as a threat to public order.” Hah-bloody-hah.

So how did today’s love-in between President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron go down with the Cornerites? Huge relief that the special relationship is at last on the mend? Or, instead, concern that our centre-right PM clearly has much more in common with America’s centre-left extreme-socialist leader than any of the candidates for the Republican nomination?

Neither. Just stony silence (so far, at least) in the right-wing echo chamber.



Mitt Romney’s genius for baby-holding

March 9, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on North America, Off topic | No comments

Politico reproduces a rather odd political endorsement:

Did you know Mitt Romney’s baby handling skills may be a big help in Mississippi? So says Gov. Phil Bryant, who endorsed Romney Thursday. Speaking to reporters in Pascagoula shortly after Romney wrapped up his stump speech here, Bryant cited the ex-Massachusetts governor’s child-rearing abilities when asked how he’s doing in his conversion to the South. “He had blue jeans on. He likes grits. Again, he’s been here before. We’ve talked to him. We’ve seen him. But he just has a warm comfortable way about him. I like to see a man when he’s holding a baby. And he looks like he’s held a baby before,” Bryant said.

For the record, here are pictures of Mr Romney and President Obama with babies.  Holding them.  Readers are invited to decide which they prefer.



Newt Gingrich’s Declaration of Energy Independence – Beyond Peak Oil

February 22, 2012 | by David Steven | More on Climate and resource scarcity, North America | One comment

Newt Gingrich has just released a half-hour lecture on US energy policy.

YouTube Preview Image

To say, the ex-speaker is bullish on US domestic energy prospects is an understatement. He sets four objectives: (i) zero dependence on imported energy from potentially hostile states (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, etc); (ii) over a million additional high-paid jobs in the energy sector; (iii) a strengthened dollar due to a reduction of energy imports and increase in exports; (iv) gas at $2.50 per gallon.

Newt’s vision is based on massive exploitation of what he believes are more or less unlimited unconventional oil and gas reserves. The US could have three times as much oil as Saudi Arabia, he argues, and gas for 100 years or more. The geopolitical consequences of this bounty will be striking. As President, he would have the Saudis firmly in his sights:

I want to get to a point where we produce so much oil in the United States that no American president will ever again bow to a Saudi King. I thought, frankly, it’s time that we tell the Saudis the truth: We know that they are the largest funders of schools called madrassas, which teach hate. We know that they spend several billion dollars a year exporting a very, very extreme version called Wahhabism, and we know that they are not straight with us.

And up until now, our presidents have been too cautious to say, “Oh gee, I don’t want to offend the Saudis. I don’t want them to do something with their oil supply.”

Well, we have an opportunity now to turn that around. We have an opportunity to build up the American oil supply, the American natural gas supply, so we can then tell the Saudis the truth, so we can deal with them from a position of strength, so we can no longer worry about the Persian Gulf.

And at that point, if, in fact, the Iranians want to do something with the Straits of Hormuz, maybe the Chinese have a problem or the Indians have a problem or the Europeans have a problem. But I am not sure at that point that the Americans will have a problem if we become once again what we were in World War II, the leading producer of oil in the world.

As is often the case, Newt has tapped deep into the Zeitgeist by choosing today to go large on energy. Talk to American policy makers and they have become incredibly bullish about the prospects for the domestic sector (although few, of course, rising to Gingrichian heights of enthusiasm).

Citigroup recently proclaimed the end of Peak Oil, triggering a debate on whether shale gas and tight oil prospects are fundamental game changers or whether they will have a more marginal – although still significant – impact (see Chris Nelder for example). No-one credible I have talked to would disagree that a shift of some kind is afoot.

Newt is also right to see potential geopolitical advantages for the US. American energy demand is fairly stable and its domestic endowment is growing. In contrast, China and India face decades of rapidly increasing consumption of all natural resources. They also still have lots and lots of resource-hungry cities to build. Their transition is going to be much more tricky to handle.

The US also has leadership in key technologies (fracking, enhanced oil recovery, solar, even nuclear) that are increasingly valuable as energy demand grows. And it’s well-placed on food and land (although water is a big problem for some parts of the country).

Characteristically, of course, Gingrich overplays his hand (that’s his shtick). America sitting back while the Gulf implodes? Good luck with that. And market prices for oil – less so for gas – are set globally. Demand overseas will continue to drive the price the American consumer pays for gasoline at home: ‘oil isolationism’ is, and will remain, a fantasy.

And, of course, climate change does not get a mention in Gingrich’s current world view (although it used to), even though new fossil fuel discoveries are putting huge amounts of new carbon in play. That is not a problem that can be ignored ad infinitum.

I’m expecting Newt’s energy fervour to be much mocked, but don’t bet against him getting some momentum too. And the mood could spread. We might see quite a lot more bullish talk on energy in the American presidential debate.

Update: Just reading the transcript, one misses some of the glory of Newt’s delivery, which is Pinteresque at times: “Under President Obama, because he is so anti‑American [pause] energy, we have actually had a 40 percent reduction in development of oil offshore.”

Update II: The Onion weighs in:

As Newt Gingrich continues to cede ground to Rick Santorum, the former House speaker’s campaign team has responded by advising him to stay focused on the belligerent, mean-spirited message that has long been the hallmark of his presidential run, sources confirmed Monday.

“Newt’s rhetoric can become abstract and idiosyncratic at times, and we have to gently remind him that he just needs to be himself, to be the Newt people are familiar with—the Newt devoid of any discernible scruple beyond his own insatiable instinct for self-promotion,” campaign director Michael Krull said Friday, explaining that whatever lies at Gingrich’s cold, depraved core is what will make or break him with voters. “Every time he veers off course and talks passionately about about outer space or how the United States has to stop spending beyond its means, I tell him, ‘Look, your greatest asset is being a remorseless asshole.”



Heartland: Hacked Off (updated)

February 16, 2012 | by David Steven | More on Climate and resource scarcity, North America | No comments

I am hacked off by almost everything about the breathless exposé of Heartland’s (purported) internal strategic documents.  Here’s Think Progress’s measured presentation of the scoop:

Heartland Documents Reveal Fringe Denial Group Plans to Pursue Koch Money, Dupe Children and Ruin Their Future

So what do we have? Nothing less or more than you’d expect. Papers that show the organisation believes climate change is a hoax and that it wants to raise money to promote that view. As if any of that’s a surprise.

There’s really no news here at all. No smoking gun. No admission that Heartland knows global warming is real, for example, but isn’t saying so. Or that it was behind the hacking of UAE’s Climate Research Unit. Rarely has so much hot air (geddit?) been expended over so little.

Now I know why I am supposed to get all riled up by this story. (i) Heartland is wrong. (ii) It’s wrong in a way that is convenient for its funders. (iii) And, of course, this is sweet revenge Climategate – where the media also got its knickers-in-a-twist about innocuous emails written by climate scientists.

But none of these reasons stop this being a stupid non-story. Especially not the fact that something similar (or worse) was done to ‘our’ side.

But then… then… there’s Heartland’s asinine reaction. I know that, in the media age, s/he who is most offended against wins, but this is truly ridiculous:

The individuals who have commented so far on these documents did not wait for Heartland to confirm or deny the authenticity of the documents. We believe their actions constitute civil and possibly criminal offenses for which we plan to pursue charges and collect payment for damages, including damages to our reputation. We ask them in particular to immediately remove these documents and all statements about them from the blogs, Web sites, and publications, and to publish retractions.

It’s a criminal offence even to comment on this story? And you’re worried about your reputation? What reputation?

Anyway – I have commented on Heartland-gate and will continue to do so if I don’t have anything better to do. And, if Heartland doesn’t like it, I think the gentleman below captures my sentiment very well….

Update (21/2/12): Predictably enough, this sorry saga has degenerated further. On the one hand – and quite extraordinarily – the Heartland crew has followed through on its threat to get legal with the blogosphere, going after sites that have:

Posted links to a document titled “Confidential Memo: 2012 Heartland Climate Strategy.”

Posted links to certain other documents purporting to be those of The Heartland Institute.

Posted blogs or web pages discussing any or all of these documents.

The final clause would draw into its net most of the Western world’s media – and Global Dashboard. And this from an allegedly libertarian think thank.

Then we have last night’s confession by Peter Gleick that he obtained and then leaked the documents. Time will tell if he also faked one or more of them. Idiot.

(BTW how long until Gleick resigns from this Task Force on Scientific Ethics?)



Syria: is love the answer?

February 9, 2012 | by Richard Gowan | More on Influence and networks, Middle East and North Africa, North America, Off topic | No comments

War is not the answer, Marvin Gaye once observed, and only love can conquer hate. Now Citizens for Global Solutions is trying to translate this into policy by asking everyone to sign an electronic Valentine’s Day card to the Syrian people.  

I was going to write more, but I’ve decided to let the image speak for itself.



The Ted-O-Matic! How to Generate Your Own, Faux-Profound TED Talk | Vanity Fair
"The art of faux profundity: nine easy steps to your own audience-flattering ted talk."

Information Is Beautiful | How Many Gigatons of CO2?
One of the best infographics on climate change I've ever seen

The Scary Hidden Stressor: Climate Change and the Arab Spring - Thomas Friedman
“The Arab Spring and Climate Change” doesn’t claim that climate change caused the recent wave of Arab revolutions, but, taken together, the essays make a strong case that the interplay between climate change, food prices (particularly wheat) and politics is a hidden stressor that helped to fuel the revolutions and will continue to make consolidating them into stable democracies much more difficult.

Fabian Society » Green Social Democracy
Michael Jacobs, former climate & energy adviser to Gordon Brown at No. 10, on the other crisis of capitalism

Jared Diamond’s Guide to Reducing Life’s Risks - NYTimes.com
On the utility of "constructive paranoia"

Secret Lives of North Korea
What it's actually like to live there - by a former British ambassador

Equitable Access to Sustainable Development: An idea whose time has come? « Hiya Maya
Required reading for anyone interested in the sustainability nexus of limits and fairness

Resources Futures | Chatham House
Big new report from Chatham House, based on 12 million data points, no less. Key message: it's the volatility that kills you.

Australia May Join Europe With Extended Kyoto Climate Pledge - Bloomberg
Tantalising remarks from Australia's Parliamentary secretary on climate change

Obama breaks silence on climate change. Does this presage action in his second term? – Telegraph Blogs
Geoff Lean reads the tea leaves - interesting historical discussion of environment in past Republican policy

Pro Bono: How rockers change the world - FT.com
Sympathetic review of BBC doc on Bono and Geldof's journey so far

The scenarios on a (large) postcard
Good futures outlook to 2025 from the Challenge Network

ICTSD • ‘One Billion Hungry’ Peak Missing From New FAO Numbers
FAO addresses criticism of its methodology and comes up with new hunger total of 870 million

A Reader's Guide to the WEF Global Redesign Initiative
A detailed online companion to the most comprehensive proposal for global governance reform since WW2

Ethiopia: navigating through the emotive, outrageous, and the subtle but dangerous narratives on the demise of Meles | African Arguments
Comprehensive and fair assessment of Ethiopia after Meles.

Upwardly Mobile Pakistan on 66th Independence Day - Haq's Musings
A Pakistan optimist celebrates the country's progress.

Niger struggles against militant Islam - The Washington Post
Situated next to Mali, Nigeria, and Libya, all of which are spreading instability across the Sahel, Niger looks increasingly vulnerable.

Crafting State-Nations: India and Other Multinational Democracies by Alfred Stepan, Juan J. Linz, Yogendra Yadav
Helps reconfigure the debate on the relationship between ethnic diversity and political institutions.

Ex WB Chief Economist makes case for manufacturing in Africa
Justin Lin discusses his new book on light manufacturing in Africa with examples from Ethiopia.

Why is Nobody Freaking Out About the LIBOR Banking Scandal? | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone
If collusion took place between the Bank of England and Barclays, what might have happened between Hank Paulson and US banks in 2008?

Barclays Libor scandal: how can we change banking culture? | Business | The Guardian
Outstanding broadside from Aditya Chakrabortty - who knew that each one of us in the UK has given £19,271 to the banks...

The 'Busy' Trap - NYTimes.com
Great takedown of our addiction to busyness. Citizen's income now!

Will Civil War Hit Afghanistan When The U.S. Leaves? : The New Yorker
"“The Americans have failed to build a single sustainable institution here. All they have done is make a small group of people very rich. And now they are getting ready to go."

George Monbiot – The Mendacity of Hope
Monbiot at his furious best, on the failure of Rio 2012

The Battle Over Climate Science | Popular Science
Excellent reportage from both sides of the climate war's front line

Why Women Still Can’t Have It All - The Atlantic
Must-read reflection on her time as head of policy planning at the State Dept by Anne-Marie Slaughter

Rio Minus: The End of Post Cold-War Treaty Making?
Reflections on the failure of Rio from the former head of the Sierra Club

Neal Stephenson's Past,Present, and Future - Reason.com
Great interview with Neal Stephenson from just after he published the Baroque Cycle

Pope Benedict Focuses on Legacy While Ignoring Vatican Power Struggle - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"The mood at the Vatican is apocalyptic. Pope Benedict XVI seems tired, and both unable and unwilling to seize the reins amid fierce infighting and scandal."

Trust, Democracy and Diversity - Democracy In Africa
Good introduction to a book on a key challenge for fragile states and developed countries alike.

"The End of the World as We Know It"
Great euro-driven disaster scenario from Dani Rodrik on Project Syndicate

Have we arrived at a financial singularity? - Finance Addict : Finance Addict
Are the financial algorithms, models and computers taking over from their human creators? Have we reached a financial singularity?

Exclusive: EU floats worst-case plans for Greek euro exit: sources - chicagotribune.com
European finance officials have discussed as a worst-case scenario limiting the size of withdrawals from ATM machines, imposing border checks and introducing capital controls in at least Greece should Athens decide to leave the euro.

My break with the extreme right - Politics - Salon.com
Awesomely good take down of America's new right - by one of its old right

A new Europe of competing currencies - FT.com
A thoughtful take on one possible consequence of Grexit, from Samuel Brittan

An Arab Spring south of the Sahara? - Phil Clark in Juncture
Why didn't the Arab Spring reach sub-Saharan Africa? From the first edition of IPPR's new journal Juncture.

Ideas for a Sustainable Development Outlook | International Environmental Governance
Latest thinking on the idea of a Sustainability Outlook report (one of the few useful things that might yet emerge from Rio+20), from the Mexican Mission to the UN's Jorge Laguna Celis

Greeks apologise with huge horse
Left outside the European Central Bank in the dead of night, the horse has now been moved into the ECB’s central lobby where it is proudly on display.

Fascism rises from the depths of Greece's despair - Europe - World - The Independent
"Still half-asleep, Panayiotis Roumeliotis was surprised to be asked to show his identity card by two young men with shaved heads. It was his first direct contact with the vigilante groups that have become a feature of everyday life in some areas of the Greek capital."

If you're not worried yet... you should be
Reasons to be gloomy from ZeroHedge

Articles & Publications
What Happens Now? – The Post-2015 Agenda After the High-level Panel

Briefing paper by Alex Evans and David Steven that explores the outlook for the post-2015 development agenda over the next two years and makes seven recommendations for member states and other champions of a bold, but practical, agreement. Download Report

The Future is Not Good Enough: Business As Usual After 2015

Background paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the High-level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, and published as part of the Panel’s main report. Download Report

The United States after the Great Recession

A paper by David Steven, Joshua Meltzer and Claire Langley, published by the Brookings Institution, supported by the FutureWorld Foundation, on how the United States should respond to the aftermath of the recession in order to promote growth and sustainability in the coming years.

Goals in a Post-2015 Development Framework

An options brief by David Steven, published by New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and funded by the UN Foundation, on the role that global goals can play after the Millennium Development Goals expire in 2015. Download Report

Climate, Scarcity and Sustainability in the Post-2015 Development Agenda

What should sustainability advocates aim for in the post-2015 international development agenda – and how should they go about it?

Resources, Risk and Resilience: Scarcity and Climate Change in Ethiopia

The first in a series of CIC case studies on the challenges that resource scarcity and climate change pose to poor countries – and how they, and their international partners, can build resilience to them. The report assesses both Ethiopia’s current policies on scarcity and climate, and a range of key gaps, vulnerabilities and exogenous risks that need to be taken account of in future planning.

Post-2015: What role for business?

There’s a consensus that any post-2015 global development framework should have more to say about the role of the private sector than the MDGs have done. But what does that actually mean in practice?  This new report from the Overseas Development Institute explores some options for how the private sector might be represented in and contribute to a new set of global goals for development.

Chill Out: Why Cooperation is Balancing Conflict Among Major Powers in the New Arctic

This report addresses the Arctic’s growing strategic relevance and conflict dynamic; offers background on, and assessment of, the existing institutions, and examines ongoing risks. Ultimately, the report concludes that the prospects for cooperation outstrip the potential for conflict, and that the Arctic offers lessons for tackling evolving challenges in other regions.

Best of Times, Worst of Times

An edited and expanded version of talk given to the ‘Lessons from the Economic Troubles’ panel at an international workshop on systemic lessons from the global economic crisis, hosted by the Global Futures Forum.

Beyond the Millennium Development Goals

Debate on what should follow the Millennium Development Goals after 2015 is now underway in earnest. This briefing paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, prepared for a closed session Brookings Institution meeting organised at the request of the US government, sets out an overview of the MDGs and their expected status in 2015; describes the background to, and options for, a post-2015 framework; and discusses the political challenges of agreeing a new framework and sets out considerations for governments and other stakeholders.

Putting inequality into the post-2015 picture

There’s a growing consensus among the countries, UN agencies and civil society organisations involved in discussions on the post-2015 development agenda that equity, or inequality, needs to be somehow integrated into any new framework.  This paper considers the pros and cons of some current proposals for integrating inequality  into a post-2015 framework, and offers a tentative [...]

Sustainable Development Goals – a useful outcome from Rio+20?

Recent months have seen increasing interest in the idea that Rio+20 could be the launch pad for a new set of ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs).  But what would SDGs cover, what would a process to define and then implement them look like, and what would some of the key political challenges be? This short briefing [...]

Creating Consensus on a post-2015 framework for development

Any global framework for development which is agreed after 2015 will be a political deal between states. This paper looks at recent trends in policy and politics in emerging economies and traditional donors to assess where a consenus might lie. It suggests some principles for a post-2015 agreement which emerge from recent policy developments

A post-2015 Global Development Agreement: why, who what?

Paper from ODI and UNDP, authored by Claire Melamed and Andy Sumner, summarising the evidence on the impact of the MDGs, and looking at current trends in poverty and in global governance that will affect the shape and the scope of any future agreement on global development.

Resource Scarcity, Fair Shares and Development

Why resource scarcity will be a game changer for global justice agendas, and what aid donors, NGOs and other development opinion formers need to do about it. WWF / Oxfam report by Alex Evans.

Making Rio 2012 Work: Setting the stage for global economic, social and ecological renewal

The Rio 2012 sustainable development summit is at risk of being the latest in a long line of damp squibs on environmental multilateralism – but could still make real progress, if it focuses on greening growth and building resilience to shocks and stresses, and above all faces up to the issues of fair shares that arise in a world of limits.

Governance for a Resilient Food System

How national and international governance systems need to be reconfigured to meet the challenges of food security in a world of tighter supply and demand balances and increasing volatility. Report for Oxfam’s new Grow campaign by Alex Evans. (May 2011)

Running out of everything: how scarcity drives crisis in Pakistan

Article on scarcity of resources in Pakistan and what it means for the country.

Economics for a world with limits

Text of speech by Alex Evans to Institute for New Economic Thinking annual conference at Bretton Woods; the YouTube video is here. (April 2011) Download Speech

Unscrambling the price spike

Article published on China Dialogue on reasons for the new food price spike, including potential implications of the current drought in China. (February 2011) Download Article

2020 Development Futures

Eight critical uncertainties for development over the next decade, and ten recommendations for what ActionAid – who commissioned this report – should do to prepare for them

American Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Article published in World Politics Review on current American foreign policy

The World in 2020 – Geopolitical and Trends Analysis

Report asking how organisations can prosper in what will be a turbulent period for world order

Globalization and Scarcity

Center on International Cooperation report on what forms of multilateral cooperation are needed to manage scarcity of resources

Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict

Background paper on whether resource scarcity and climate change will cause increased violent conflict

Organizing for Influence: UK Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Chatham House report on how the UK’s new coalition government should upgrade and reform the way Britain conducts foreign policy

The Long Crisis Seminar

Introductory remarks by David Steven at a Brookings Institution seminar on risk and resilience in the global system (March 2010)

Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008). Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Articles and Publications

Key Posts
People power has cracked the walls of tax secrecy – now we have to bring the walls down2

” “But our actions are perfectly legal, and what you are calling for is completely unrealistic”, said the slave traders of the early Nineteenth Century. Campaigning by ordinary people defeated them. Fast forward two centuries and the tax dodging debate sees a similar clash. Less than a year ago campaigners were castigated as dreamers for calling [...]

What’s the $10 trillion question?0

Global consumption grew by $10 trillion from 1990 to 2010. So the $10 trillion question is who benefited and how much? In a new paper we explore who have been the winners and losers since 1990. And thus, what happened to global and national inequality since 1990. We find that in the last 30 years [...]

The right recipe for democracy0

“There’s more to democracy than free and fair elections”. This is a refrain we’ve heard more than once since the anti-government protests broke out in major Turkish cities two weeks ago. On Wednesday, a Turkish lawyer and university lecturer, Zaynep Ayeata, made this point again on The World Tonight. Former Foreign Minister, and one of the [...]

Revealed! Inside the IF Campaign4

Now everyone’s talking about the IF campaign. Saturday’s rally in Hyde Park was on TV, radio, and in pretty much every Sunday paper. More importantly, the IF campaign message can be seen in churches, mosques, synagogues and charity shops across Britain, it is being discussed in school classrooms and student unions, and it’s gone viral [...]

Is Hollande discovering it IS easier to get in than out?0

France’s beleaguered President Francois Hollande has had some good news. He may have fallen out of the public’s affection faster than any previous French leader, but last Wednesday the United Nations gave Mr Hollande UNICEF’s Felix Houphouet-Boigny Prize for his contribution to peace and stability. The award is recognition for France’s intervention in Mali earlier this year [...]

After 2015 – the High Level Panel reports-

The Secretary General’s High Level Panel has published its report (download here) on the post-2015 development agenda – here’s quick review of what it’s come up with. The heart of the Panel’s recommendations are easy to grasp. First, it calls for an end to absolute poverty by 2030. This shift from poverty reduction to poverty [...]

Are India & China really destined to rivalry?-

China and India are the two giants of what are called the emerging powers – they are the ’I’ and ‘C’ in the BRICS  – but despite their membership of that grouping, relations between them have long been uneasy. They fought a brief war in 1962 high in the Himalayas over their disputed border. It [...]

“We’ll stop hurting our brothers and sisters” – What success at the G8 would look like-

  It has become to fashionable to say that G8 meetings never achieve anything. It is also incorrect. Civil society campaigners have made use of G8 meetings in the past to achieve major steps forward on debt, on access to HIV/AIDS treatment, and on maternal and child health. But whereas, in the past, campaigners have [...]