Global Dashboard – Blog covering International affairs and global risks

Inspiring Speech on African Entrepreneurship 1

Best argument for entrepreneurship (and rural development) in Africa you will ever see:

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Thanks to New York University’s Development Research Institute’s Annual Conference 2012.

April 18, 2012 at 11:22 pm | More on Africa, Economics and development | 1 Comment

Repatriated – and gagged with packing tape -

That’s a snap from Alitalia’s 0920 Rome to Tunis flight yesterday morning, taken by Francesco Sperandeo and posted on his Facebook page.  He comments,

Two Tunisian nationals deported from Italy and treated in an inhumane way. Brown wrapping tape around her face and mouth, and plastic ties to secure the wrists.This is European civilization and democracy. But the worst part was that everything happened to the total indifference of the passengers; my request to treat the two passengers humanely led to me being labelled “arrogant” and told to return to my seat because it was a normal police operation. Normal?? I still managed to steal a photo! Go ahead and spin that or prosecute me!

April 18, 2012 at 8:14 pm | More on Europe and Central Asia | Comments closed

Why I love the New Yorker -

Via Michael Anderson. More New Yorker cartoons here.

April 18, 2012 at 10:03 am | More on Off topic | Comments closed

The Luxembourgers are coming! -

The New York Times has just published a genuinely wonderful (if just a little humorous) piece about Luxembourg’s revanchist dreams of dominating its neighborhood.  Read it in full, but first enjoy this map of the Grand Duchy’s potential territorial claims:

I have almost nothing to add to the NYT’s investigations, except that Luxembourg is running for a seat on the UN Security Council at the end of 2012. Watch out Belgium!

April 18, 2012 at 3:32 am | More on Conflict and security, Europe and Central Asia | Comments closed

The most heavily aided place in the world 7

Ever wondered where gets most Official Development Assistance per capita in the world? Have a guess. Somewhere in sub-Saharan Africa? Nope. The Occupied Palestinian Territories? Uh-uh. Somewhere that’s recently had a huge humanitarian disaster? You’re still way off.

In fact, it’s the place in the photo above – that’s the French dependency of Mayotte, in case you’re wondering, which in 2009 received the princely sum of US $2,751 per person in ODA.

Now, you’re probably assuming that this is just some strange anomaly to do with France’s generosity towards her overseas colonies. But in fact, numbers 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the top five most heavily aided places on the planet are also small island states – and by no means are they all French possessions. Tuvalu gets $1,785 per capita; Palau, $1,737; the Marshall Islands, $1,101; and the Federated States of Micronesia, $1,093.

In fact, no-one else managed to get over the $1,000 per capita mark in 2009. The next nearest was the West Bank and Gaza, at $748 a head. If you’re wondering when an African country that’s not a small island state gets a look in, then you’re looking at Djibouti – all the way down at $186 a head.

Oh, and newsflash – none of the above are low income countries. In fact, you have to get to number 24 on the list of countries that get most ODA per capita – that’s Afghanistan – before you find a low income country. But who ever said life was rational?

(PS – if you’re interested in the general insanity of global aid allocations, check out this recent paper from Jonathan Glennie and Annalisa Prizzon at ODI for a more thorough analysis than the one above. Me, I’m off in search of some consultancy work in the south Pacific. They can afford it.)

April 17, 2012 at 1:56 pm | More on East Asia and Pacific, Economics and development | 7 Comments

Who should be on the post-2015 Panel? 4

And now for the fun part of thinking about the UN’s forthcoming High Level Panel on the post-2015 agenda: who should feature on its membership?

As well as balancing the obvious country constituencies (low income / emerging / developed), the Panel will also need to balance experience with new faces (High Level Panels can easily succumb to the problem of ‘usual suspects’), and ensure a diversity of expertise that is not just drawn from the international development scene. Here are some ideas that David and I have come up with – comments, suggestions, rebuttals all very welcome. We’ll update the list to create a one-stop talent pool as we get ideas on GD comments, Twitter (reach us at @davidsteven and @alexevansuk) or on email.

Low income countries

Abdoulaye Wade (Senegal) and Amadou Toumani Touré (Mali) – two ex-heads of state from Africa who emerge with credit from the manner of their parting.

Aung San Suu Kyi (Myanmar) – obviously.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria) – will have a higher profile than ever following her World Bank bid, and would have a huge amount to contribute.

Meles Zenawi (Ethiopia) – strong record on both poverty reduction and climate change (though not on human rights). Co-chaired UN Panel on climate finance.

Emilia Peres (Timor Leste) – a competent finance minister and one of the prime movers behind the g7+. Would bring a consistent and coherent voice for fragile states. Alternatively, Francesca Bomboko (DRC) might be a good choice.

Shahnaz Wazir Ali (Pakistan) – a lonely advocate for education, health, and gender in a country that is a critical test case for the international community.

Emerging economies

Luis Alfonso de Alba (Mexico) – currently Mexico’s ambassador to the UN. Key figure in Cancun climate talks; first President of the UN Human Rights Council in 2006.

Jairam Ramesh (India) – currently minister for rural development; covered climate before that. Was a member of the Global Sustainability Panel.

Wen Jiabao (China) – recent events make it look distinctly unlikely that he’ll be a lame duck after his retirement. Has said he will attend Rio+20.

Lula Inacio Lula da Silva (Brazil) – given Brazil’s record on poverty reduction, a must-have if he proves to be available.

Trevor Manuel (South Africa) – currently Minister in the Presidency in charge of the National Planning Commission. A seasoned operator who knows the development agenda back to front.

Developed countries

Christian Friis Bach or Ida Auken (Denmark) – new development and environment ministers. Young, extremely smart, heavily engaged on the SDGs agenda.

Kitty van der Heijden (Nethlerlands) – current Ambassador for sustainable development. Key opinion former on the Rio+20 agenda and a formidable operator.

Hilde Johnson (Norway) – currently serving as SRSG on South Sudan. As Norway’s development minister, was of the founding members of the Utstein Group.

Hillary Clinton (US) – the Panel needs an American member, preferably from the government. While Raj Shah is the obvious choice, Hillary would be perfect – if she could be persuaded.

International system

Josette Sheeran (US) – former head of WFP, State Dept minister and G8 sous-sherpa before that. Now Vice Chair of World Economic Forum.

Angel Gurria (Mexico) – current Secretary-General of OECD. Membership would be a perfect link to the work of the OECD DAC (which was so central to the creation of the MDGs).

Min Zhu (China) – deputy Managing Director of the IMF. Smart, economically literate, and unusually forthcoming even on sensitive issues like resource scarcity.

Non-government and private sector

Melinda (or Bill) Gates (US) – will be a key opinion former on the post-2015 agenda, and has the potential to emerge as an influential champion of the Panel’s ideas.

Paul Polman (Netherlands) – as CEO of Unilever has made the company a serious player on sustainability; also highly effective as Chair of WEF group on food security.

Fazle Hasan Abed (Bangladesh) – as founder of BRAC, he has carved out new space at the intersection between civil society and social enterprise, with its business network funding 80% of its vast operation.

Amartya Sen (India) – the godfather of international development and co-creator of the UN’s Human Development Index.

Andrew Rugasira (Uganda) – chief executive of Good African Coffee; recently profiled admiringly in the New York Times.

Sergey Brin (Russia) – not just a cool name to have on the Panel, but also one who would be able to bring a distinctive – and essential – tech perspective.

Ricken Patel (Canada) – founder and CEO of Avaaz.org, a refreshing antidote to the old model of single issue NGOs. Would also tick the ‘youth’ box.

Update: The Beyond 2015 civil society coalition has put forward its own list of suggestions for civil society representatives here.

April 17, 2012 at 8:52 am | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Cooperation and coherence, Economics and development, Global system, Influence and networks | 4 Comments

What sort of High Level Panel? 1

While everyone’s assuming that the forthcoming UN High Level Panel on the post-2015 agenda will focus almost exclusively on the content of whatever is to replace the Millennium Development Goals after they expire in 2015, it’s worth pausing to remember that no-one’s seen the Panel’s terms of reference yet (indeed, it’s unlikely that they even exist in draft at this stage) – so the Panel’s remit might range considerably broader than that.

After all, the UN hasn’t done a major panel on development since 2005-6, when the High Level Panel on System-wide Coherence looked at how the UN could connect the dots better on development, humanitarian assistance and environment.  (That Panel was set up Kofi Annan rather than Ban Ki-moon, moreover – and most people thought its recommendations, primarily on how to make the UN development system better joined-up within countries, were pretty limited.) So if the new Panel were to look at development more broadly, rather than just making recommendations on new Goals, what kind of Panel might it be?

I tend to think there are basically six models for a blue ribbon commission of this kind. Here’s a quick overview of them – lifted direct a note I did back in 2009, before the Global Sustainability Panel was launched (at pretty much the same stage, in fact, as the new post-2015 Panel is at now). The core question for any Panel, I argued, was: what is this Panel going to be remembered for? Here are the six options I set out – in roughly ascending order of ambition:

  1. An analytical Panel – like the Millennium Project. (This can’t be the whole story for a Panel on sustainability; and in any case the Millennium Project, the IPCC and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment have most of the ground covered between them. The one analytical thing the Panel could do is an integrated assessment of climate finance AND finance for development needs; we always stress that the former must be additional to the latter, but as we all know well, in fact they overlap hugely. So far we haven’t been able to talk about this for fear of undermining 0.7.  But since 0.7’s now forty years old, and clearly doesn’t take account of climate, it may be time to update it.)
  2.  A Panel that sets out a new narrative – like the Brundtland Commission. (Clearly needs to be part of the story – but not the whole story. The real challenge: is there anything new to say, given that the High Level Panel on Threats Challenges and Change covered the interdependence story pretty comprehensively? Part of the answer to that  is clearly the post-2015 story on development, where we clearly have a lot to do to build in climate and also resilience more broadly.)
  3.  A Panel that concentrates on moderate institutional reform – as the Panel on System Coherence did. (A more achievable option than 4-6 below, but risks making the UN appear obsessively introspective rather than tackling the issues themselves.)
  4.  A Panel that tees up 4-6 political deals in particular areas – much as the Threats, Challenges and Change did on Responsibility to Protect, the new Peacebuilding Commission, reform of the Human Rights Council, and a formal Security Council definition of terrorism. (I think this looks like the best option at this stage, offering a balance of ambition and realism – but further work would be needed on mapping out the full range of options from which to select the 4-6 key areas. More on that below.)
  5.  A Panel that sets out what a comprehensive approach would look like on one or two key issues (e.g. climate or food security – looking at all key dimensions of the issue, e.g. trade, finance, technology, institutions, on-the-ground development, etc. This is attractive in theory, but in practice risks either appearing to reinvent the wheel, or becoming bogged down in existing debates. It may be more ambitious than it seems at a glance.)
  6.  A Panel that agrees a way forward on a key area of high disagreement – as Threats, Challenges and Change tried to on Security Council reform, before falling back to option 4 above. (Probably the leading candidate for such an approach would be the question of the level at which to stabilise greenhouse gases in the air, and how to share out the global emissions budget that would keep us below it: while the Panel couldn’t quantify what the ceiling or the allocation should be, it could conceivably set out how those questions will be settled – as the UNFCCC process has failed to, over the last 20 years. Hard to discern the political conditions for anything approaching this level of ambition, especially post-Copenhagen. But political  space on climate has always been driven by surprise events – e.g. the fact that Jim Hansen’s Senate testimony in 1988 was in the middle of a freak heatwave – so may be worth having a very high ambition option ‘on the shelf’, that could be offered to the co-chairs if the conditions arise.)

Of course, the list I wrote in 2009 is more focused on environment, and less on development, than the post-2015 Panel would need to be. But the basic headings still represent the choices that the new Panel’s chairs and members will face as they sit down for their first meeting and figure out what they’re going to try to do together.

As you’ll have realised if you read my post yesterday on the kinds of goals the Panel could recommend, or David’s post last week on what will make for an effective set of goals, one thing we both feel strongly about is that this Panel needs to think through its approach in a structured waynot fall into the trap of plunging straight into the detail without a plan for what the Panel’s trying to achieve, what its approach will be, what kind of evidence base it needs to assemble and what it wants to be remembered for.

April 17, 2012 at 6:34 am | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Cooperation and coherence, Economics and development, Global system, Influence and networks, Key Posts | 1 Comment

Why a Focus on Inequality in the MDGs (and in Fragile States) is Wrong 2

With the appointment of the United Kingdom’s prime minister, David Cameron, as one of the chairs of a forthcoming UN committee tasked with establishing a new set of UN millennium development goals (the existing ones expire in 2015), debate on the issue is expected to heat up in the months ahead.

Many in the development field think the reduction of inequality in poor countries should be a high priority. But this shows a misunderstanding of the problems the poor face in these countries—and what steps must be taken to help them. more »

April 16, 2012 at 11:05 pm | More on Economics and development | 2 Comments

After the MDGs: what kind of goals? 1

Following the British government’s announcement that David Cameron will be one of the co-chairs of the UN’s forthcoming High Level Panel on what should follow the Millennium Development Goals after they expire in 2015, we’ve been setting out some thoughts about the design principles of any new set of goals. Last week, David set out some of the criteria that will make for an effective set of goals. So what about the actual content of the goals?

Amid widespread enthusiasm for the new idea of Sustainable Development Goals (see this briefing), there’s a marked lack of clarity about what such goals would actually look like: what they’d cover, how they’d work, how they’d relate to the existing MDGs and so on. Some people want to see environmental considerations like planetary boundaries in the new framework. Others want to see enabling conditions for development, like growth or governance. Lots of people are talking about access to energy as an area where a new goal could be agreed. Lots of others would love to see a new goal on reducing inequality.

Before the SDGs debate goes much further, these kinds of debate need to become a lot more structured if we’re to avoid getting a ‘Christmas tree’ of goals (weighed down with everyone’s baubles, lacking focus or any sense of priorities). So what are the key questions we need answers to, and in what order should we be asking them? Here’s our take on the five core questions that will shape the post-2015 agenda:

  1. Do we need new goals at all? Not enough people have stopped to ask whether new goals are really needed in the first place. But it’s essential that the approach to post-2015 be thought through from first principles: the case for new goals won’t be persuasive unless it sets out clearly why it is that quantified targets are likely to be an effective tool to accelerate development or increase sustainability, especially given that evidence for the impact of the existing MDGs isn’t conclusive.
  2. Should goals be universal? The current MDGs are designed to apply to the world’s most vulnerable people – in other words, about a billion of them if you use $1.25 a day of income as the benchmark, or 2 billion at $2 a day. Should a new set of goals continue with this basic principle? Or should it take a radically different approach, and aim for goals that would be genuinely global in coverage - in other words applying to 7 billion rather than 1 billion people?
  3. How broad should goals be? New goals after 2015 could be tightly defined (a small set of headline targets in a few specific sectors, say), fully comprehensive (covering all aspects of society, economy, and the environment), or somewhere in between (like the current MDGs, which cover a representative set of issues).
  4. Do we need one, or more than one, framework? While an all-singing, all-dancing package of SDGs would logically subsume MDGs, it’s also possible to imagine slimmed down SDGs living alongside revised MDGs (‘twin tracks’), or a variety of hybrid models (a loose ‘family’ of goals, that could apply just to poor countries or be universal in nature).
  5. Should the framework be binding? The MDGs were designed to be global targets – not to apply to individual countries. While many donors have increasingly tracked MDG progress at country level (and some countries have incorporated them into law or in some cases even the constitution), it’s also the case that the MDGs probably couldn’t have been agreed if they had imposed binding obligations on governments. So should future goals be applied at national as well as global level? And should they define rights or desired outcomes?

Depending on how you answer these questions, you end up at one of a range of different kinds of outcome:

Full SDGs – universal, comprehensive, covering all 7 billion of us and with nationally specific targets – have some momentum right now. But it’s hard to see major powers signing up: India’s against, China’s keeping quiet for now, and it’s hard to see the US agreeing to anything that looks like global direction of the US’s domestic agenda. Don’t hold your breath.

SDGs-lite – which is where we might end up if the full SDGs agenda gets progressively diluted (e.g. controversial goals get dropped; targets become aspirational or voluntary and fail to be matched with a hard-edged delivery plan). This option runs the risk of failing to satisfy anyone (governments, campaigners, the media) - while also losing the MDGs’ focus on the poorest.

MDGs Plus – This option would start from the core MDG principle of focusing on the poorest, but built outwards from there. The risk is that reopening the framework could lead to a ‘Christmas tree’ outcome. But strong leadership could also keep the agenda tight – perhaps complementing goals with a set of key capabilities open to peer review.

Hybrids – Another option would be to combine SDGs and MDGs in a hybrid – for example, the approach proposed by Oxfam’s Kate Raworth. This approach would allow an evolutionary approach under which the poverty elements of the goals would be agreed early on in the process – thus safeguarding the MDGs’ poverty focus before moving on to the politically more challenging ground of sustainability goals.

Car crash – Finally, of course, it could all go pear-shaped. This is a risk that deserves to be taken very seriously indeed; after all, it’s not as though the last few years are short of example of sustainability and climate summits going wrong in one way or another. Remember: the MDGs took ten years to emerge, during a period of history that was a lot more warm and fuzzy than today’s context – and the MDGs were politically much easier than goals on politically charged areas like sustainable consumption. A car crash scenario could lead to the loss of the MDGs’ poverty focus with no countervailing win in another area.

(This post is based on a forthcoming Brookings paper by David and I on the post-2015 challenge, which will be published in the next few days.)

April 16, 2012 at 2:54 pm | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Economics and development, Global system, Influence and networks, Key Posts | 1 Comment

A complex coup in Guinea-Bissau -

Last Friday, just as West Africa watchers were recovering from the excitement of the coup d’état in Mali a couple of weeks back, little Guinea-Bissau piped up with a putsch of its own. A group of soldiers attacked the residence of the prime minister and presidential candidate, Carlos Gomes Jr, and arrested him and the country’s interim president, Raimundo Pereira. They subsequently declared that they were forced to take action after discovering a secret document signed by Gomes Jr that gave a detachment of Angolan soldiers permission to “annihilate” Guinea-Bissau’s army. Said soldiers had been in the country, at Gomes Jr’s request, for a few weeks, ostensibly to restructure and reform the bloated military.

The secret document is quite likely to be a fabrication, but it seems probable that the coup happened because the army had had enough of Gomes Jr’s meddling and wanted to re-establish its authority. Indeed, the Transitional Council it has set up to run the country while the putschists decide its long-term future includes 22 opposition parties but has explicitly excluded Gomes Jr’s ruling party, the PAIGC.

The invitation to the Angolans was a provocative move. Downsizing the military would reduce its access to the lucrative drug trade which for the past few years, as Guinea-Bissau has become a staging post on the cocaine route from South America to Europe, has filled the coffers of the country’s top army, navy and air force officials. It is not known whether Gomes Jr was himself involved in the trade and wanted to weaken the competition (his late predecessor Nino Vieira almost certainly enriched himself with a spot of narcotrafficking on the side), but his removal from power – and he was very likely to win the presidency in the second round of voting later this month – leaves the way clear for the army to continue to profit from the cocaine boom.

Who is behind the coup is not clear. My immediate thought was that army chief-of-staff Antonio Indjai, a shrewd operator who has sidelined rivals such as former navy boss Bubo Na Tchuto and who a couple of years back briefly arrested Gomes Jr and labelled him a criminal, was masterminding things, and it seems Indjai attended the first two post-coup meetings between the junta and opposition leaders. Guinea-Bissau’s leading blogger, Antonio Aly Silva, was of the same opinion, and was arrested shortly after posting that the army chief was in control (he was later released after receiving a beating and having many of his valuables stolen).

But reports have recently emerged that Indjai himself has been arrested, and that his number two Mamadu Ture Kuruma is in control.  This made me wonder if Bubo Na Tchuto, a popular and influential figure who has attempted at least two coups in the recent past, was taking his revenge on his former ally, and at the same time eliminating another rival in Gomes Jr. Investigating, I found a single article from the Spanish news agency EFE claiming that Bubo, who has been described as a drug kingpin by the US, had indeed been released from prison over the weekend, that “military sources” said he had been collected from his cell by a group of uniformed men. This, I thought, confirmed my suspicions, but just as I was congratulating myself for my detective work I was shocked to read the last few words of the article, which stated that  ’according to unconfirmed rumours, Bubo was executed in the early hours of the morning.’

So we still do not know who is really in charge. Guinea-Bissau’s foreign minister is convinced that Indjai holds the reins and has dismissed rumours of his arrest as ridiculous. Bubo may or may not be alive, and may or may not be the coup mastermind. Indjai’s number two is also on the list of suspects, as is opposition presidential candidate Kumba Yala, who looks like benefiting from the political agreement (although at least one source says he too has been arrested).

But although speculating is interesting, to a large extent it does not matter who planned the coup. The real power in the country is held by the drug barons from South America, and this coup, like several before it and no doubt many more in the coming years, is really a squabble over who gets access to their gifts.

Update: Kumba Yala has denounced the coup and refused to join the “Transitional Council“, which coup leaders say will run the country for the next 1-2 years.

Update #2: This report (in Portuguese) suggests that Antonio Indjai had threatened to attack Angolan troops on 5 April, at a meeting of  the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Abidjan. Indjai complained that the Angolans had heavy armaments, including fourteen tanks, and warned ECOWAS that its emergency forces would soon have to go into Guinea-Bissau as well as Mali.

 

April 16, 2012 at 1:14 pm | More on Africa, Conflict and security | Comments closed

Wiliam Hague never did this 1

Hillary Clinton, out on the town in Colombia this weekend:

gty hillary clinton columbia jt 120415 wblog Hillary Clinton Dances the Night Away in Colombia

April 16, 2012 at 12:10 am | More on Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, Off topic | 1 Comment

Highlights from the 2012 Kazakhstan-China-Russia Table Tennis Friendship Tournament -

b2.pingpong.kazakh.table.story

The Washington Diplomat, a magazine focusing on diplomats in Washington, brings us exciting sporting news:

On Feb. 25, Asia’s time-honored tradition of “ping-pong diplomacy” took on a whole new meaning when [Chinese ambassador to the U.S.] Zhang Yesui and fellow diplomats representing the neighboring countries of Kazakhstan and Russia converged on the Kazakh Embassy to anoint a local ping-pong champion.

The formal-sounding “Kazakhstan-China-Russia Table Tennis Friendship Tournament” was anything but. The host team donned bright yellow “Kazakhstan” T-shirts that quickly became soaked in sweat; the Chinese wore red. In between action-packed games, these weekend warriors quenched their thirst with ice-cold Stella Artois beer and snacked on Costa Rican bananas and gala apples from Washington state.

All that sweat, beer and fresh fruit erased the diplomats’ daily cares:

On this particular Saturday afternoon, the diplomats’ attention was focused not on the war in Afghanistan, or Iran’s nuclear buildup, or the recent U.N. Security Council resolution imposing economic sanctions against Syria that was vetoed by both China and Russia — but on the fierce ping-pong battle being played out among three teams representing the world’s largest, fourth-largest and ninth-largest countries by size.

China won by a big margin.  But the Washington Diplomat would like to reassure readers that the Kazakh ambassador Kazakh Ambassador Erlan Idrissov was not downhearted:

Even if his country doesn’t produce the world’s best ping-pong players, it’s an undisputed champion when it comes to vodka.

After the lavish Kazakh-style buffet dinner following the tournament, Idrissov handed each of his guests a goodie bag containing, among other things, a 750-ml decorative bottle of potent Snow Queen. This rare spirit, named “Top Vodka” at the 2008 San Francisco World Spirits Competition, sells for $70 a bottle and is the international winner of 10 gold, seven silver and eight bronze medals for excellence — a spirited end to a long day of hands-on diplomacy.

I for one would have needed a few shots of Snow Queen after all that.

April 15, 2012 at 11:22 pm | More on Cooperation and coherence, East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks | Comments closed

Newt Gingrich’s big multilateral idea: guns for all! -

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/files/1newt1.jpg

Newt Gingrich, who is still hanging on to his presidential ambitions, has a long record of interest in the United Nations.  In the post-Iraq era he was, by Bush-era Republican standards, a bit of UN-booster and led a commission that recommended increasing funding for the organization’s peacekeeping and human rights monitoring.  Over the last year, however, he has mainly mentioned the UN when he’s needed an easy political target, and talked about stopping its funding.  Yesterday, he adopted a third strategy: advocating positive engagement at the UN as a way to spread guns.

Newt Gingrich accused the National Rifle Association of being “too timid” in a Friday speech to the group.

Desperate for attention and trying to get back into a conversation that has passed him by, the still-technically-running candidate said he will submit a treaty to the United Nations that would make the right to bear arms a universal human right.

“Far fewer women would be raped. Far fewer children would be killed…and far fewer dictators would survive if people had the right to bear arms everywhere on the planet,” Gingrich said, earning a standing ovation from a crowd of thousands. “We should say the second amendment is an amendment for all mankind.”

“Let’s take the George Soros’ and the Hillary Clintons’ head on,” he added.

Now, that’s what I call arms control.

April 15, 2012 at 2:17 pm | More on Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Global system, North America, Off topic | Comments closed

Hitler and the naughty chair -

The Globalist has published an intriguing extract from Adam Nagorski’s new book Hitlerland.  It recounts the recollections of Helen Niemeyer, an American married to one of Hitler’s earliest supporters.  Hitler spent a lot of time at Niemeyer’s house in the 1920s, and a good time was had by all:

He was a constant visitor, enjoying the quiet, cozy home atmosphere, playing with my son at intervals, and talking over for hours his plans and hopes for the renaissance of the German Reich,” Helen recalled. “It seems he enjoyed our home above all others to which he was invited.”

Helen maintained that she was able to see Hitler from an “absolutely different” side than others would later. “He was a warm person,” she insisted in an interview in 1971. “One thing was really quite touching: He evidently liked children, or he made a good act of it.”

One afternoon as her son Egon ran to meet Hitler, he slipped and bumped his head against a chair. With a dramatic gesture, Hitler beat the chair, berating it for hurting “good little Egon.” Helen remembered this as “a surprise and a delight,” which prompted the boy to ask the visitor to go through the same act each time he came over. “Please, Uncle Dolf, spank the naughty chair,” Egon would plead.

Helen was fascinated by Hitler’s inclination “to talk and talk and talk,” as she put it, and by “the mesmeric quality” of his voice. That fascination was in no way diminished by the main subject he focused on. “The one thing he always raved against was the Jews,” she admitted.

In 1923, Nagorksi explains, Niemeyer persuaded Hitler not to commit suicide.  Presumably she could not imagine life without the “naughty chair” gag.

April 13, 2012 at 3:08 pm | More on Europe and Central Asia, Off topic | Comments closed

Do World Bank Country Classifications Hurt the Poor? -

world bank country classifications

As the competition for president of the World Bank approaches its final stages, it is worth considering what changes ought to be brought in by the new person. One area in need of reform is the Bank’s system of country classifications. Although Robert Zoellick pushed the World Bank to open its much-prized treasure chest of data to the public during his five-year term as president, he did little to reform how the World Bank conceptualized that data. Changing how countries are classified would have a wide impact on the whole development community.

For instance, look at all the discussion in development policy circles about the sharp reduction in the number of low-income countries in recent years. Some believe this news should be trumpeted as a policy success. For others, the reduction suggests that there is a “New Bottom Billion” of poor people living in middle-income countries, forcing a change in donor focus. For yet another group, it indicates that foreign aid as a concept should be updated to blend more loans with grant money.

But has all that much changed? Does the World Bank country classifications accurately identify the countries in need of outside assistance? more »

April 12, 2012 at 11:07 pm | More on Economics and development | Comments closed

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Charting a New Course for the World Bank
Three scenarios for the future of the World Bank. Which one will the new president choose?

The Regulator Who Explained the World - Justin Fox - Harvard Business Review
As somebody who has long trafficked in explanatory financial journalism, I stand somewhat in awe. Haldane is a Bank of England lifer who presumably already has his hands full executive-directing financial stability in the UK. Yet his speeches amount to possibly the best account out there of where modern financial capitalism stands and where it ought to go.

Africa Here We Come
Finally - a coherent strategy for combating Chinese dominance of Africa.

The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East
Why the best hope for democracy in the Middle East is the mainstream Islamist groups that see it as a means for society to maintain akhlaq: the mores that define good Muslims.

Middle East Policy Council | The Syrian Uprising of 2011
Why the Syrian regime will last at least into 2013.

Economics in the Crisis - Paul Krugman
"Far from contributing useful guidance, many members of my profession threw up dust, fostered confusion, and actually degraded the quality of the discussion. And this mattered."

RIP: Peak Oil - we won't be running out any time soon • The Register
Citigroup's new report of how oil isn't running out just yet

Program Model | One Acre Fund
We use markets to eradicate hunger permanently

BBC News - The myth of the eight-hour sleep
Great article on the history of sleep: until the late 17th century, people mainly passed the night in two distinct four hour sleeps, with an hour or two of wakefulness in between

URBEINGRECORDED » Discontinuity & Opportunity in a Hyper-Connected World
Great discussion of complexity and network theory and its relevance to global risks, from Chris Arkenberg

The Emissions Gap Report
This publication aims to assess the following questions: are countries’ pledges of action collectively consistent with and, if implemented, likely to achieve the 2˚C and 1.5˚C temperature goals? If not, how big is the gap between emission levels consistent with these temperature goals and the emissions expected as a result of the pledges?

The Spectator runs false sea-level claims on its cover
These claims rely on misinterpretations of scientific data so grave that even an arts graduate such as Fraser Nelson should have been able to spot them.

Europe’s Insult Diplomacy - Infographic
British Prime Minister David Cameron called French President Nicolas Sarkozy “a hidden dwarf” as part of a joke told to a journalist. German Chancellor Angela Merkel referred to Sarkozy as “Mr. Bean,” while Sarkozy called her “La Boche,” or the Kraut. Spanish Prime Minister José Zapatero is “too pink” because of the high proportion of women in his cabinet, said Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. And Berlusconi’s opinion of the euro? “A disaster,” he said, that has “screwed everybody.”

Solar Power's Good News
The White House has challenged the solar industry to produce clean electricity at $1 per watt. It has also set a national goal to achieve 80 percent clean energy use by 2035…The good news is that researchers are racing toward that goal at an impressive rate.

BBC News - Viewpoint: Is the alcohol message all wrong?
"The effects of alcohol on behaviour are determined by cultural rules and norms, not by the chemical actions of ethanol."

Something's Happening Here - NYT - Tom Friedman
When you see spontaneous social protests erupting from Tunisia to Tel Aviv to Wall Street, it’s clear that something is happening globally that needs defining

Foreign Aid Set to Take Hit in U.S. Budget Crisis - NYTimes.com
America’s budget crisis at home is forcing the first significant cuts in overseas aid in nearly two decades

Israel - Adrift at Sea Alone - NYTimes.com
Tom Friedman bemoans "the most diplomatically inept and strategically incompetent government in Israel’s history"

Eurozone: A nightmare scenario - FT.com
How it could all go pear-shaped - your cut-out-and-keep flow chart guide

Sharp fall in poor countries' dependency on foreign aid says ActionAid report
Aid dependency among 54 of the world’s poorest countries has declined by a third over the last decade, according to a new report from ActionAid.

World environment programs in budget crosshairs | Reuters
Global conservation programs are prime targets for budget-cutting: they sit at the crossroads of two things Americans dislike spending money on, aid and environment.

Attack of the Superweed - BusinessWeek
widespread use of Roundup has led to the evolution of far-tougher-to-eradicate strains of weeds

Jon Stewart Says Rick Perry Is the Candidate Republicans Want, and Deserve
Laugh out loud funny

Global reach is the prize at Busan - Resources - Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
Jonathan Glennie and Andrew Rogerson on what you need to know ahead of the big aid effectiveness summit

When Bloggers Don’t Follow the Script, to ConAgra’s Chagrin - NYTimes.com
Ha ha ha - epic PR #fail

Obama backs down on tighter smog regulations | World news | The Guardian
In case you missed it. Yes we can...

Wikileaked cable: executions of children by US forces in Iraq
Wikileaked cable with harrowing reports of  US forces handcuffing and then killing 10 people - including children aged 5 years, 3 years and 5 months.

BBC News - Tests show fastest way to board passenger planes
The way airlines board planes turns out to be the least efficient

New sources of aid: Charity begins abroad | The Economist
"The establishment donors’ aid monopoly is finished."

Who Doomed Sarah Palin's Presidential Dream? | TPMDC
Where did it all go wrong for Sarah?

The Intergenerational Foundation
"We believe that each generation should pay its own way, which is not happening at present."

Should we have a land value tax? - MoneyWeek
Discussion of pros and cons for the UK, following an article by OECD's chief economist in Prospect

Toward a Post-2015 Development Paradigm | Centre for International Governance Innovation | Centre pour l'innovation dans la gouvernance internationale
12 new development goals are proposed to replace the MDGs from 2015 - the outcome of an IFRC / CIGI conference at Bellagio

China Gets (Needlessly) Defensive Over Famine in Africa - China Real Time Report - WSJ
Germany's Africa policy coordinator causes dispute by singling out Chinese landgrabs as a culprit in the Horn of Africa famine

Latin America: A toxic trade - FT.com
Must read broadside against probably the most stupid and avoidable public policy screw-up in recent memory: the war on drugs

The intellectual collapse of left and right - FT.com
Michael Lind on how the economic inclusion narratives of centre left and centre right are simultaneously imploding - must read

Articles & Publications
Beyond the Millennium Development Goals

Debate on what should follow the Millennium Development Goals after 2015 is now underway in earnest. This briefing paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, prepared for a closed session Brookings Institution meeting organised at the request of the US government, sets out an overview of the MDGs and their expected status in 2015; describes the background to, and options for, a post-2015 framework; and discusses the political challenges of agreeing a new framework and sets out considerations for governments and other stakeholders.

Putting inequality into the post-2015 picture

There’s a growing consensus among the countries, UN agencies and civil society organisations involved in discussions on the post-2015 development agenda that equity, or inequality, needs to be somehow integrated into any new framework.  This paper considers the pros and cons of some current proposals for integrating inequality  into a post-2015 framework, and offers a tentative [...]

Sustainable Development Goals – a useful outcome from Rio+20?

Recent months have seen increasing interest in the idea that Rio+20 could be the launch pad for a new set of ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs).  But what would SDGs cover, what would a process to define and then implement them look like, and what would some of the key political challenges be? This short briefing [...]

Creating Consensus on a post-2015 framework for development

Any global framework for development which is agreed after 2015 will be a political deal between states. This paper looks at recent trends in policy and politics in emerging economies and traditional donors to assess where a consenus might lie. It suggests some principles for a post-2015 agreement which emerge from recent policy developments

A post-2015 Global Development Agreement: why, who what?

Paper from ODI and UNDP, authored by Claire Melamed and Andy Sumner, summarising the evidence on the impact of the MDGs, and looking at current trends in poverty and in global governance that will affect the shape and the scope of any future agreement on global development.

Resource Scarcity, Fair Shares and Development

Why resource scarcity will be a game changer for global justice agendas, and what aid donors, NGOs and other development opinion formers need to do about it. WWF / Oxfam report by Alex Evans.

Making Rio 2012 Work: Setting the stage for global economic, social and ecological renewal

The Rio 2012 sustainable development summit is at risk of being the latest in a long line of damp squibs on environmental multilateralism – but could still make real progress, if it focuses on greening growth and building resilience to shocks and stresses, and above all faces up to the issues of fair shares that arise in a world of limits.

Governance for a Resilient Food System

How national and international governance systems need to be reconfigured to meet the challenges of food security in a world of tighter supply and demand balances and increasing volatility. Report for Oxfam’s new Grow campaign by Alex Evans. (May 2011)

Running out of everything: how scarcity drives crisis in Pakistan

Article on scarcity of resources in Pakistan and what it means for the country.

Economics for a world with limits

Text of speech by Alex Evans to Institute for New Economic Thinking annual conference at Bretton Woods; the YouTube video is here. (April 2011) Download Speech

Unscrambling the price spike

Article published on China Dialogue on reasons for the new food price spike, including potential implications of the current drought in China. (February 2011) Download Article

2020 Development Futures

Eight critical uncertainties for development over the next decade, and ten recommendations for what ActionAid – who commissioned this report – should do to prepare for them

American Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Article published in World Politics Review on current American foreign policy

The World in 2020 – Geopolitical and Trends Analysis

Report asking how organisations can prosper in what will be a turbulent period for world order

Globalization and Scarcity

Center on International Cooperation report on what forms of multilateral cooperation are needed to manage scarcity of resources

Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict

Background paper on whether resource scarcity and climate change will cause increased violent conflict

Organizing for Influence: UK Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Chatham House report on how the UK’s new coalition government should upgrade and reform the way Britain conducts foreign policy

The Long Crisis Seminar

Introductory remarks by David Steven at a Brookings Institution seminar on risk and resilience in the global system (March 2010)

Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008). Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Looking Forward: how do we build resilience?

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).

Shooting the Rapids: multilateralism and global risks

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, commissioned by Gordon Brown and presented to heads of state at the Progressive Governance Summit (April 2008).

Beyond a Zero-Sum Game on Climate Change

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven, as part of the British Council’s Transatlantic Network 2020 book ‘Talking Trans-Atlantic’ (March 2008).

From Bali to Copenhagen: towards an endgame for global climate policy?

Article by Alex Evans for the Environmental Policy & Law Journal (January 2008).

Climate Change: The State of the Debate

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the London Accord (December 2007).

The Post-Kyoto Bidding War: bringing developing countries into the fold

New paper by Alex Evans on climate policy after 2012 from the Center on International Cooperation (October 2007).

Alternative CSR: the Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Chapter on the FCO from Manchester University Press’s Alternative Comprehensive Spending Review, by David Steven (September 2007).

Fixing the UK’s Foreign Policy Apparatus: A Memo to Gordon Brown

Note by Alex Evans and David Steven about how to restructure the UK’s foreign policy system in order to manage trans-boundary global risks better (April 2007).

Evaluation and the New Public Diplomacy

Talk given by David Steven at the Wilton Park conference: The Future of Public Diplomacy. Focuses on strategies to drive public diplomacy to the heart of the foreign policy armoury (March 2007).

View all Articles and Publications

Key Posts
Open Letter to the Co-Chairs of the UN High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Agenda1

Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon announced on Wednesday that Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and British Prime Minister David Cameron will head a high-level panel to advise on the post-2015 way forward. Here’s a memo from Alex and I on how the chairs can help ensure the Panel succeeds (pdf version here). ——————————————————- To:        [...]

Beyond the Millennium Development Goals1

Debate on what should follow the Millennium Development Goals after 2015 is now underway in earnest. This briefing paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, prepared for a closed session Brookings Institution meeting organised at the request of the US government, sets out an overview of the MDGs and their expected status in 2015; describes the background to, and options for, a post-2015 framework; and discusses the political challenges of agreeing a new framework and sets out considerations for governments and other stakeholders.

What sort of High Level Panel?1

To be effective, the new High Level Panel on the post-2015 agenda needs to be clear about what it wants to be remembered for. Here are the six basic options that international commissions have open to them when they sit down to consider that question…

After the MDGs: what kind of goals?1

The five key questions that will shape the development and sustainability agenda after 2015 – and the different outcomes that the answers to them lead to.

Is the US focus on Asia a first step away from being a global power?1

This is my first post for a while as I’ve been off ‘fighting ‘ cancer though for a lot of the time ‘enduring ‘ would have been a more appropriate way of putting it . Anyway,  I’ve written a piece for Yale Global asking whether the combination of US concern over the rise of China and [...]

Cheap food: bad. Expensive food: terrible. Why the FAO’s glass is always empty8

It’s interesting to look back a few years – to when the world was worried that food was too cheap, not too expensive. In 2004, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization looked back on a long bear market for food: forty years in which real prices of agricultural commodities had fallen 2% per year, or [...]

How many people are hungry?4

The good news: poverty is in retreat. The bad news: hunger isn’t.  That’s the headline finding for the first Millennium Development Goal , which aims to halve the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day and the proportion of people living in hunger between 1990 and 2015. Great strides have been made [...]

“Freeing the entire human race from want”5

The MDGs are so over Having just been rude about one World Bank report, here’s a positive review of another – the Global Monitoring Report 2011, which the Bank produces jointly with the IMF. The GMR updates progress against the Millennium Development Goals – targets that were set as the culmination of a push throughout [...]