FBI predicts AQ defeat in under 4 years

by | Apr 7, 2008


Robert Mueller the head of the FBI, believes the West can achieve victory over al-Qaeda within three-and-a-half years.
In a speech to Chatham House Mueller describes the West confronting a three-layered threat from al-Qaeda:

The top tier is the core of the organisation which has established new sanctuaries in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

The middle tier is the most complex, consisting of small, self-directed groups like the London bombers of 7/7 who had some ties to al-Qaeda’s leadership.

The bottom tier is made up of homegrown extremists who met on the internet instead of in foreign training camps.

His speech is available here.

The speech hid no obvious surprises (aside from the headline that AQ will be defeated in three and a half years)

  • Quote from Churchill – check-
  • Number of terrorist plots -check-
  • Quote on the need for close partnerships – check-
  • Quote on AQ being a resilient network – check-
  • Quote on freedom – check-
  • Story + quotes from Eliza Manningham-Buller (past DG MI5) and Jonathan Evans (present DG MI5) What?

Mueller:

I met Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller just after the September 11th attacks. I was new to my job, and I asked her what she considered the key to MI5’s success in thwarting terrorist attacks. She said, “Two things: sources and wires.”

I don’t think I have ever heard EM-B publicly say that the key to success against AQ is sources and wires – I was under the impression the Security Service didn’t talk about operational matters.

It also became a bit disconcerting to hear him quote both EM-B and Evans so extensively. It was an interesting speech but you can’t help wondering why British officials don’t want to discuss success against AQ (we just hear how many networks and terrorists are active) and, come to think of it, why we only learn about British intelligence, terrorist plots and the UK’s response to terrorism from the US administration … as Churchill once said… [enough Ed.]

Author

  • Charlie Edwards is Director of National Security and Resilience Studies at the Royal United Services Institute. Prior to RUSI he was a Research Leader at the RAND Corporation focusing on Defence and Security where he conducted research and analysis on a broad range of subject areas including: the evaluation and implementation of counter-violent extremism programmes in Europe and Africa, UK cyber strategy, European emergency management, and the role of the internet in the process of radicalisation. He has undertaken fieldwork in Iraq, Somalia, and the wider Horn of Africa region.


More from Global Dashboard

Let’s make climate a culture war!

Let’s make climate a culture war!

If the politics of climate change end up polarised, is that so bad?  No – it’s disastrous. Or so I’ve long thought. Look at the US – where climate is even more polarised than abortion. Result: decades of flip flopping. Ambition under Clinton; reversal...