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The Telegraph on acid – France, the CIA, and a touch of plagiary

March 12, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Influence and networks, North America, UK | No comments

After ‘Duke of Edinburgh asks female sea cadet if she works at a strip club’, the most popular story on the Telegraph website at the moment accuses the CIA of having secretly fed LSD to the villagers of Pont-Saint-Esprit in France in 1951.

It’s a serious accusation. Not only would this be chemical warfare against an ally (or quasi-ally at least), the Telegraph tells us that five people died and ‘dozens were interned in asylums’ after the ‘quiet, picturesque village in southern France was suddenly and mysteriously struck down with mass insanity and hallucinations.’

The timing of the story is very odd. It is based on an obscure book by HP Albarelli, which was published in 2008 and is now out of print in the UK.

Albarelli’s theories are dismissed out of hand by Steven Kaplan, the Goldwin Smith Professor of History at Cornell University and a noted bread expert (yes, really).

Kaplan has also written a book about Pont-Saint-Esprit, in French, entitled Le Pain Maudit. He was not interviewed by the Telegraph, however, but he made the following comment to France 24:

I have numerous objections to this paltry evidence against the CIA. First of all, it’s clinically incoherent: LSD takes effects in just a few hours, whereas the inhabitants showed symptoms only after 36 hours or more. Furthermore, LSD does not cause the digestive ailments or the vegetative effects described by the townspeople…

It is absurd, this idea of transmitting a very toxic drug by putting it in bread. As for pulverising it [for ingestion through the air], that technology was not even possible at that time. Most compellingly, why would they choose the town of Pont-Saint-Esprit to conduct these tests? It was half-destroyed by the US Army during fighting with the Germans in the Second World War. It makes no sense.

Now maybe Albarelli is right and Kaplan is wrong, but you’d think the Telegraph would make some effort to talk to Kaplan before publishing a story that has gone around the Internet like wildfire.  It’s not as if Henry Samuel, the Telegraph France correspondent, wasn’t aware of Kaplan’s work.

After all, parts of his article bear an extremely suspicious resemblance to a review of Kaplan’s book, published by the New York Times in 2008.

Here’s the NYT:

What became a national disaster began on Aug. 16, 1951, when the inhabitants… were suddenly stricken by frightful hallucinations of being consumed by fire or giant plants or horrid beasts.

A worker tried to drown himself because his belly was being eaten by snakes… A man saw his heart escaping through his feet and beseeched a doctor to put it back in place. Many were taken to the local asylum in strait jackets.

And here’s the Telegraph:

On August 16, 1951, the inhabitants were suddenly racked with frightful hallucinations of terrifying beasts and fire.

One man tried to drown himself, screaming that his belly was being eaten by snakes… Another saw his heart escaping through his feet and begged a doctor to put it back. Many were taken to the local asylum in strait jackets.

The details that are not from the Times (“An 11-year-old tried to strangle his grandmother. Another man shouted: “I am a plane”, before jumping out of a second-floor window, breaking his legs.”) come from this French blog post from Monday this week .

It presumably prompted the paper suddenly to jump on Albarelli’s conspiracy theory (and yes – it’s a fairly close translation):

Un gamin de 11 ans, Charles Granjhon, tente d’étrangler sa mère… Un homme saute du deuxième étage de l’hôpital en hurlant : “Je suis un avion.” Les jambes fracturées, il se relève et court cinquante mètres sur le boulevard avant qu’on puisse le rattraper.

Questions for the Telegraph’s editor:

1. Did Samuel read Albarelli’s book or speak to him?
2. Did he speak to Kaplan or any other sources?
3. Does he accept that the Telegraph plagiarized the Times?
4. And shouldn’t he set the bar a little higher before publishing stories of this type?

As an added bonus, enjoy LSD a Go G0, a short film from 2004 that Albarelli says he contributed to.

YouTube Preview Image

Update: Edited for clarity.



Ripple effects on camera

March 10, 2010 | by Alex Evans | More on Latin America and the Caribbean | No comments

This image shows NOAA modelling of the tsunami that followed Chile’s earthquake – which proved to be highly accurate.  Yale Environment 360 explains how to decipher the map:

Researchers used seismic information, wave measurements collected from buoy-based equipment, and computer modeling technology to predict the maximum wave amplitude, wave arrival time, and the extent of wave inundation. The colors illustrate the maximum computed tsunami amplitude in centimeters during the 24 hours after the quake, with the highest waves in purple and red and smaller waves in orange and yellow. The red triangles represent buoys.



Ingham on Europe

March 10, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks, UK | No comments

Bernard Ingham and Margaret Thatcher
In today’s FT, William Hague underlines (again) that a new Conservative government will see the European Union as a platform for achieving progress on global issues.

With David Miliband’s enthusiasm for a G3, we’re left with robust cross-party consensus on Europe’s role as a foreign policy actor (whether it can fulfil this role is another matter).

I’m reminded of how Margaret Thatcher’s press secretary, Bernard Ingham reacted when asked, shortly after the new Tory government took office, to write a report on how the government could build public support for the European Community.

According to Robert Harris, Ingam wrote that:

A community of 250 million could achieve more than a ‘debilitated nation of 55 million, however much the latter may trade on past imperial glory‘.

Government publicity should stress this, ‘with all the instruments of the orchestra, not only central Government, reading the same score, playing the same tune and coming in on cue.’

True in 1980. Even more so thirty years’ later.

(Photo from Iain Dale.)



A precarious peace in Sierra Leone

March 8, 2010 | by Mark Weston | More on Africa, Conflict and security | No comments

“You wouldn’t understand this country if you stayed here for five years. I don’t understand it,” says Nestor Cummings-John, the head of the Sierra Leone Women’s Movement (“faute de mieux,” he replies when I ask why the group is run by a man).

I take his point. After six weeks in Guinea-Bissau (plus a lot of background research), I felt I had a fairly good grasp of how the society worked, why things are as they are, and what the prospects are going forward. But after six weeks in Sierra Leone, my mind is full of confusion, as chaotic as Freetown’s deranged street markets. I can only hope that a few weeks of quiet reflection somewhere sane like Burkina Faso will help me sort through the jumble of impressions, fears, questions and competing explanations that are clattering around my head.

One of the questions I’m grappling with is whether Sierra Leone is knitting itself together after Siaka Stevens’ ruinous dictatorship and the even more damaging civil war, or if in fact the country is in danger of slipping back into conflict.

Tony Blair, who visited Freetown last year, believes Sierra Leone is “thriving.” The Truth and Reconciliation Commission, on the other hand, which was set up to investigate the causes of the war, argues that the same levels of poverty, corruption and youth alienation pertain today as prevailed twenty years ago, before the war started. As Paul Collier showed in The Bottom Billion, moreover, most countries that go through one civil war endure another within a decade or two.

Blair’s view is buttressed by the fact that the country has been at peace for nine years, that it held uneventful elections in 2007 which were widely judged to be fair, and that dangerous neighbours like the Liberian thug Charles Taylor are off the scene. Exiles are returning, drawn by peace and the still-tantalising prospect of mineral riches. And many Sierra Leoneans have told me their compatriots have learned their lesson from the war and are extremely reluctant to go down that road again.

Not everyone is so sanguine, however. While the wealthy are generally quite optimistic about the future, the poor remain disgruntled, railing against the corruption of the rich and the ineffectiveness of government. “The poor don’t love their country,” says Joseph, a young Freetonian working with Amnesty International. Edward, an old man in a Freetown slum, says the poor have no reason to be patriotic. Most young people I’ve met have asked me to help them acquire visas for Britain. (more…)



On the web: Obama’s enforcer, the EEAS and climate, the politics of natural disasters, and nuclear negotiations…

March 5, 2010 | by Michael Harvey | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security, Economics and development, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America | No comments

- The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber has an in-depth profile of President Obama’s under fire right-hand man, Rahm Emanuel, explaining why “laboring as chief of staff during the first year or two of a presidency can be a prolonged form of torture”. Over at The Daily Beast Richard Wolffe gets perspectives from three former presidential enforcers. Elsewhere, Robert Kagan explores the growing bipartisan consensus in US foreign policy.

- Writing in Der Spiegel, Sascha Müller-Kraenner and Martin Kremer assess how the new European External Action Service (EEAS) might help the EU exert greater influence over climate governance post-Copenhagen. The new diplomatic corps will offer “a unique opportunity to increase analytical capacity and to design the right instruments and institutions for confronting climate change”, they suggest. Reuters meanwhile reports on the failure of EU member states to meet their commitments on development aid, and the implications for climate funding.

- Over at World Politics Review, Frida Ghitis explores how natural disasters can shape the national political narrative, with last weekend’s Chilean earthquake proving only the most recent example.

“No matter where disaster strikes”, she argues, “the script opens with shock, heartbreak and compassion. Then, it inexorably moves towards a cold political calculus about the performance of political leaders responsible for managing the aftermath.”

- Finally, in the midst of ongoing nuclear negotiations and two months before the crucial NPT Review Conference, the Moscow Times assesses the Kremlin’s “stubborn” approach to talks. British Ambassador John Duncan offers his perspective on UK-Russian nuclear cooperation here.



How Britain ended apartheid (updated)

March 4, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Africa, UK | One comment

More disgraceful drivel from Con Coughlin, who is still employed by the Telegraph as its “executive foreign editor” (yep, there’s a story behind that job title).

Coughlin – last noted on Global Dashboard cheerleading for torture – hopes that the Queen gave South African president, Jacob Zuma, “a lesson in etiquette.”

About the only good thing that can be said about South African President Jacob Zuma’s State visit to Britain is that he might learn some lessons about how to conduct himself in public.

Just why the Labour government thought it a good idea to extend an invitation to the legendary philanderer, who loves nothing more than to prance around a stage in tribal dress waving a machine-gun, is something of a mystery…

Having been exposed to the brilliant pageantry that Britain puts on for visiting heads of state, and the quiet dignity with which the Queen conducts herself on such occasions, one sincerely hopes that the experience will give Mr Zuma pause for thought. Mr Zuma is, after all, the head of state of a country with a rich and proud history, something that should be reflected in the dignity of his office.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, Coughlin goes on to accuse Zuma of a lack of gratitude to the UK. And what should be thank us for? Nothing more than the end of white majority rule in South Africa.

Yes – according to Coughlin - ”It was Britain’s opposition to South Africa’s apartheid regime that eventually allowed his ANC freedom movement to seize power.”

Update: A good time to recall Coughlin’s track record helping MI6 plant stories in the press, and his work fuelling the rumour that Saddam was behind 9/11.



Jesus wants you for a (multilateralist) sunbeam

March 2, 2010 | by Richard Gowan | More on Cooperation and coherence, Europe and Central Asia, Global system | No comments

We at GD like to fret about examples of badly joined-up global governance wherever we can find them.  Climate change, security, trade… and now religion.  The latest English-language edition of Internationale Politik (which happens to contain a small rant by GD’s Korski and Gowan on crisis management) includes an enjoyable piece about how the Pope isn’t using his global leverage.  But at least, author Otto Kallscheuer points out, the pontiff formerly known as Ratzinger has global reach…

Even in today’s modern age, there is a strong argument to be made for the Holy See’s active presence in the international arena. Now that the power of the papacy has long since been reduced to a “minuscule and, as it were, symbolic temporal sovereignty,” as Pope Paul VI put it in 1965, the power politics in which earlier popes actively participated for centuries have been replaced by the papacy playing a metapolitical role. Such a presence in the emerging international public sphere could contribute to mediating religious conflicts—not only because the Vatican, in contrast to nation states, is an institution well suited to deal with the demands of globalization, but also because it possesses professional routines and knowledgeable actors trained in normative politics.

One question that must first be answered is whether there are international institutions of transnational “religious policy” other than the Catholic Church. In fact, there is nothing of the sort, in Christianity or in any other world religion. In the 1970s and 1980s, at the high point of the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa and the peace movement in Western Europe, the Protestant World Council of Churches was able to raise hopes around the world of a “Christian” means of overcoming conflicts. But even in these years, no theological understanding emerged between the Christian West and East—between more liberal Protestantism and the traditional spirituality of Greek, Russian, and Serbian Orthodoxy. In the face of the explosive worldwide growth of Pentecostalism outside the historical established churches, the Ecumenical Council remains rather powerless, outside of the mainline historical churches or denomination.

And outside of Christianity? Is the Dalai Lama a sort of “pope for Buddhists?” As doubtful as an analogy between the many forms of Buddhism and the Christian churches may be, the combined political and religious role of the Tibetan leader creates a parallel to the 19th century Catholic political crisis, when the pope was simultaneously the sovereign of the papal state in middle-Italy and the spiritual head of a world religion. So far, however, the fourteenth Dalai Lama has not clearly decoupled the spiritual authority of the reborn Buddha from his political role as the exiled leader of a nation and culture fighting for autonomy. Should this separation of religious authority and civil power actually occur, the Dalai Lama or his successor in exile could perhaps become the apostle of a global Buddhism.

No institution comparable to the papacy—a universal monarchy with purely spiritual authority but indirect political power—is found in the Islamic world, aside from the Ismailite Shia, an extreme minority of the “party of Ali,” whose world leader is the Aga Khan. The message of Islam, like the Gospel, is geared universally toward expansion, mission, and globalization. But a billion Muslims have no international form of organization that would offer a starting point to relativize their local conflicts and rationalize their political defeats and identity crises.

Come on non-Catholics, get your multilateral cooperation act together.



The Sierra Leone Guide to Prevention of Tourism

March 1, 2010 | by Mark Weston | More on Africa, Economics and development | 6 comments

When I arrived in Sierra Leone six weeks ago and encountered its friendly people, spectacular beaches, lively nightlife and mysterious traditions, I wondered why the country has so few tourists (in our six weeks we have met a total of three, with three or four other possible but unconfirmed sightings).

It didn’t take long to find out. A nation that should be eager to attract tourists seems to be making systematic efforts to keep them out. If you were trying to make it as difficult as possible for foreigners to visit your country, I could recommend the following measures, which all work brilliantly for Sierra Leone:

- Charge an exorbitant sum for visas (£50 for a month, compared to, say, £10 for three months in Turkey, a much more tourist-friendly destination)

- Make obtaining the visa more complicated than for any of your neighbours by forcing applicants to produce a letter of invitation from a Sierra Leone national

- Encourage customs officials in the airport to be as surly as possible, and fail to punish them for extracting bribes from new arrivals for performing the simplest of procedures

- Build your airport thirty miles away from the capital city, on the opposite side of a giant river mouth, forcing visitors to cross either by helicopter, which regularly crashes, or ferry, which often breaks down or sinks. Make sure, too, that the ferry departure times do not coincide with incoming flights, so that your visitors will have to wait for hours in the burning sun (you will of course already have ensured there is no shade at the dock)

- Allow dozens of hustlers to converge on new arrivals as they exit the airport, giving preference to pickpockets and con merchants

- Refuse to harness the torrential rain in the rainy season to provide water and electricity to visitors at any time of year. This will ensure they cannot take respite from the heat with the help of fans, cold drinks, air-conditioning or showers. It will also mean restaurants and food stores will be unable to refrigerate food, thereby increasing the risk that your visitor will fall sick

- In the event that he does fall sick, make sure you spend none of the billiions of pounds of aid you receive on building effective hospitals or recruiting competent doctors to treat him

- Make your public transport system as slow and uncomfortable as possible, by failing to maintain vehicles so that they break down often, waiting until they are full before departing hours behind schedule, and packing two people into seats designed for one

- Enhance the effect of the above by allowing roads paid for by foreign donors to deteriorate and then failing to fill in the hundreds of resultant potholes

- Should a tourist somehow manage to shrug off these obstacles and apply for a visa extension (you have no psychiatric hospitals to house him, of course), redouble your efforts to force him out. To do this, hire the least friendly, most corrupt people to work in your immigration department. Extort money from your visitor for a visa extension that is officially free, then smile smugly at his distress

- As a final punishment for having the cheek to visit your country despite all your efforts to stop him, charge the departing, browbeaten tourist a £50 airport tax

NB: For foreign investors, multiply your efforts tenfold.



Africa to meet MDGs (updated)

March 1, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Africa | One comment

Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Maxim Pinkovskiy today published a working paper today that drops the following bombshell (here’s a free version):

Our main conclusion is that Africa is reducing poverty, and doing it much faster than we thought. The growth from the period 1995-2006, far from benefiting only the elites, has been sufficiently widely spread that both total African inequality and African within-country inequality actually declined over this period. In particular, the speed at which Africa has reduced poverty since 1995 puts it on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty relative to 1990 by 2015 on time or, at worst, a couple of years late. If Congo-Zaire converges to Africa once it is stabilized, the MDG will be achieved by 2012, three years before the target date. These results are qualitatively robust to changes in our methodology, including using different data sources and assumptions for what happens to inequality when inequality data is not available.

Not much reaction yet – but I’m intrigued to see what other economists are going to make of their work…

Update: Xavier Sala-i-Martin has a wonderfully crazy Columbia University website – he likes FC Barcelona, Salvador Dali and Beavis and Butthead.

Update II: These Economist articles from 2004 (one, two) offer useful background. The crux of the matter seems to be that Sala-i-Martin and Pinkovskiy use GDP to measure poverty (working out distribution of income from household surveys) – the World Bank’s figures are derived directly from the surveys themselves.



Foreign Office leads EU coup

March 1, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks, UK | No comments

It’s taken as a given here in the UK that Brits wield little influence in Europe. But apparently – not. According to the Guardian, an FCO-led coup is under way:

Germany is planning to stop what it sees as a British campaign to dominate European foreign policy-making under Lady Catherine Ashton, the Guardian can disclose.

Amid growing criticism across the EU of the performance of Baroness Ashton of Upholland, the EU’s new high representative for foreign and security policy, Berlin and Paris are alarmed at the prominence of British officials in the new EU diplomatic service being formed under Ashton.

A confidential German foreign ministry document analysing the creation of the EU’s new diplomatic service, seen by the Guardian, has concluded that Britain has grabbed an “excessive” and “over-proportionate” role…

The French contend that the inexperienced Ashton is being schooled in policy-making by the Foreign Office. Diplomats and officials in Brussels also see Britain’s hand in one of Ashton’s first appointments, made last week. She named Vygaudas Ušackas, a former Lithuanian foreign minister and ambassador in London, as the EU’s special envoy to Afghanistan. He was widely seen as the UK’s favoured contender after Britain withdrew its own candidate because it secured the post of Nato envoy in Kabul.

The Germans are also increasingly unhappy at what they see as the erosion of their influence and being cut out of decision-taking.



Pay restraint in Germany

March 1, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Economics and development, Europe and Central Asia | No comments

According to the FT, the German government is proud that it is keeping pay down in both the public and private sectors, and hopes this will provide an example to less prudent Eurozone economies.

But surely Greece, Italy, Spain and Ireland (and the UK as well) would prefer Germany to push wages up – putting more money in the pockets of German consumers and helping reduce Europe’s trade balances?



Daniel Hannan rewrites Falklands’ history

February 27, 2010 | by David Steven | More on Conflict and security, North America, UK | No comments

Hannan Speaks

MEP and internet superstar, Daniel Hannan is up in arms at what he sees Barack Obama sucking up to ‘Peronist Argentina’ on the Falklands.

“When matters last came to a head,” he writes, “Ronald Reagan had no difficulty backing Margaret Thatcher: the Gipper knew who America’s friends were.”

Of course, it wasn’t nearly as simple as that, as I am sure Hannan (a huge Thatcher fan) knows well. Michael Moynihan (no foe of Hannan’s, by the way)  sets the record straight:

Before the British took military action in 1982, the Reagan administration was, to the consternation of the British foreign office, very much on the fence and, initially, wedded to the neutrality position… In a letter to Thatcher, Reagan said that his government would take a neutral position on the matter—again, causing great anger—but would come out in favor of its ally if the Argentinians decide to start shooting…

It was only a communications error that prevented the United States from abstaining, rather than vetoing, a United Nation Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire—which Britain strenuously opposed.

Hannan’s fudging gives me a chance to plug James Rentschler’s superb Falklands diary. Rentschler was the Reagan official who ended up responsible for US policy on the islands after Argentina invaded. He was nonplussed by the task:

Never heard of [the Falklands], right? Me neither at least not until last evening when Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent an urgent message through the Cabinet Line requesting the President to intercede with the Argies. 1800 British-origin sheepherders, pursuing a peaceful life on some wind-blown specks of rock in the South Atlantic, now targeted by Argentine amphibious assault units – who, in turn, may soon be attacked by the largest naval armada ever to steam out of British ports since Suez? Yes indeed, the thing certainly does sound like Gilbert and Sullivan as told to Anthony Trollope by Alistair Cooke. But what started out as comic opera now looks to become not only quite serious, but exceptionally nasty. The Argentines have clearly misjudged the British temper, and this guy Galtieri, speaking first in broken mafioso-type English before the State Department interpreter tactfully intervenes, sounds like a thug. (more…)



On the web: skirmish in the Falklands, NATO futures, State Dept’s media relations, and “cloud computing”…

February 26, 2010 | by Michael Harvey | More on Conflict and security, Cooperation and coherence, Europe and Central Asia, Influence and networks, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, UK | No comments

- As the diplomatic temperature continues to rise in the South Atlantic, Simon Jenkins suggests that the Falklands are “the Elgin marbles of diplomacy” and a “post-imperial anachronism” that should lead Britain to the negotiating table. Hugo Rifkind, meanwhile, explains why he won’t be shedding tears for Argentina’s President, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, while The Economist highlights her failure to see the current crisis as an economic rather than a political opportunity.

- Rob de Wijk explores (pdf) the future options for NATO as it come to terms with changing geopolitics. Andrew J. Bacevich, meanwhile, cites a failure to sufficiently “reignite Europe’s martial spirit” and carve a global role for NATO in the 21st Century as cause for the US to draw back engagement in the alliance. Let it return to its origins and “devolve into a European organization, directed by Europeans to serve European needs”, he argues.

- Elsewhere, the London Review of Books blog offers reaction to plans for the new US Embassy in London. Associated Press, meanwhile, has news of an internal State Department report criticising its media operations.

- Finally, VoxEU explores the emergence of “cloud computing” and its potential impact on our lifestyles, business innovation, and economic growth. Charles Leadbeater assesses the associated rise of “cloud culture” and the importance of guarding this new space from the overbearing influence of government and big business. Elsewhere, over at Brookings Mark Muro wonders if the rise of Amazon’s Kindle could be a “symbol of American decline”.



Prefabricated multilateralism

February 25, 2010 | by Richard Gowan | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Cooperation and coherence, Economics and development, Global system, North America | One comment

I have a new paper out, published by FRIDE in Madrid, on the Obama administration’s approach to multilateralism. It points out that – contrary to our pleas for joined-up thinking on what international institutions should look like – the U.S. has pushed reform in a pretty ad hoc fashion:

Senior figures in the new administration had advocated a wide array of potentially incompatible options: their ideas included a stronger UN, a “global NATO”, a concert of democracies and “network diplomacy” transcending specific international institutions. The President had written of the need to boost the United Nations, but he had also praised NATO and the EU as important allies.

The administration could not continue without a hierarchy of institutional priorities for too long. It needed to find a framework for coordinating the international response to the still-boiling financial crisis – and there was a shared sense among administration members that this must fully involve emerging economic powers like China and India. In this context, one mechanism stood out as the focus for American policy: the Group of Twenty (G20).

The G20 already had momentum.  President Bush had convened its first heads-of-government summit to discuss the financial crisis in November 2008. Gordon Brown was preparing a sequel for London in April 2009. British officials grumbled that the new administration was initially ill-prepared for this, but Obama was a dominant (if deliberately not too dominant) figure at the London talks.

Although the US announced that it would host the next G20 meeting in Pittsburgh in September, this success did not convince all administration officials that the forum should be their priority. Some had been irritated by the long-winded bickering of other participants, or viewed it as a crisis mechanism that would lose steam.

Nonetheless, there was a growing recognition that serious alternatives were in short supply. The administration was unimpressed by Italy’s preparations for the July 2009 meeting of the G8. Susan Rice was making significant diplomatic headway at the UN, but its flaws as a decision-making forum remained clear.

There were enthusiasts in the administration for at least mooting reforms to the Security Council and the dysfunctional UN Human Rights Council, but these options were put on hold (although US officials at least indicated a new level of openness to discussing Security Council reform seriously). Promoting the G20 took priority. The US showed its hand in September, announcing immediately prior to the Pittsburgh summit that the G20 would act as the “premier” forum for economic discussions, displacing the G8.

To summarize: the new administration came into office, looked at what was lying about, and picked up the institution that looked most useful. Bad news for the multilat-nerds, but not that surprising. While writing this paper, I read Mary Elise Sarotte’s brilliant 1989, which probes the decisions around the reordering of Europe at the Cold War’s end. Sarotte points out that there were lots of ideas for rebuilding multilateral cooperation in Europe – Gorbachev was pushing a “common European home” embracing East and West. Yet the U.S. and West Germany went for what she calls the “prefabricated” option of sticking with NATO and the EC. There were lots of reasons for this, but one was NATO was just there already (Sara Batmanglich and I recently wrote a book chapter on how this logic continued in Europe in the 1990s).

I’m not saying that we should give up thinking bold ideas for reforming multilateralism (I’m waiting for David to respond to this post, after our jolly debate on realism…) or just hoping for a bit of policy coherence someday.  But I think that there’s lots of interesting work to be done looking at the dynamics of “prefabricated multilateralism”. Or should that be its absence of dynamism?



Academic precision and the destruction of knowledge

February 24, 2010 | by Richard Gowan | More on Africa, Influence and networks | No comments

The New Yorker has a long profile of Paul Krugman that’s worth a look. The passage that has stuck with me is not really about Krugman but one of his friends…

Krugman began to realize that in the previous few decades economic knowledge that had not been translated into models had been effectively lost, because economists didn’t know what to do with it. His friend Craig Murphy, a political scientist at Wellesley, had a collection of antique maps of Africa, and he told Krugman that a similar thing had happened in cartography. Sixteenth-century maps of Africa were misleading in all kinds of ways, but they contained quite a bit of information about the continent’s interior—the River Niger, Timbuktu. Two centuries later, mapmaking had become much more accurate, but the interior of Africa had become a blank. As standards for what counted as a mappable fact rose, knowledge that didn’t meet those standards—secondhand travellers’ reports, guesses hazarded without compasses or sextants—was discarded and lost. Eventually, the higher standards paid off—by the nineteenth century the maps were filled in again—but for a while the sharpening of technique caused loss as well as gain.

This could act as a metaphor for all sorts of current debates, and academia’s contribution to them, but I leave you to fill in the blanks…



12/03 14:01 Wolfgang Schauble’s torture chamber "The German government is essentially proposing chucking weaklings out of the euro."
12/03 09:54 It’s In the Bag! Teenager Wins Science Fair, Solves Massive Environmental Problem | Discover Magazine Canadian schoolkid's science experiment figures out how to dispose of plastic bags in 6 weeks instead of a thousand years
11/03 13:27 State Department plans 7 new posts in public diplomacy | Washington Times Officials to be assigned to the department's regional bureaus in effort to integrate public diplomacy into the policy process
10/03 17:22 The Foreign Policy Framework of a New Conservative Government | William Hague Shadow Foreign Secretary calls for "Britain to work harder to exert her influence rather than to accept a decline in it. "
10/03 15:45 Cathy Ashton speech to the European Parliament | europa.eu EU High Representative outlines her vision for the future of European foreign policy
10/03 15:11 South African tourism minister nominated for top UN climate job Marthinus van Schalkwyk nominated to replace Yvo de Boer.
10/03 13:05 Time to stock up on "survival seeds"! Seeds are the new gold.
10/03 09:37 Tories plan fast-track review of defence | FT Hague: defence review likely to be complete by November 2010 and to encompass national security and foreign policy
09/03 15:26 Think Progress » Palin Admits To Travelling To Canada For Health Care "We used to hustle over the border for health care we received in Canada. And I think now, isn’t that ironic?"
09/03 09:46 Why Europe needs its own IMF | FT Giancarlo Corsetti and Harold James: a European Monetary Fund is needed "through which support operations can be calmly negotiated without exciting political passions."
08/03 08:59 Interview with Dambisa Moyo | New Statesman Moyo: "Standard models of economic development have three ingredients: capital, labour and technology. I'm looking at how government policies on these have yielded bad outcomes."
05/03 11:19 Hacking human gullibility with social penetration The easiest way into a computer network is by tricking the people who use it.
05/03 10:02 EU faces bitter battle over control of foreign policy | FT David Miliband and Swedish Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt, voice concerns in a letter to Cathy Ashton about the European External Action Service (EEAS)
05/03 09:01 Theatre of war | The Times Ten questions the Chilcot Inquiry should ask Gordon Brown
04/03 12:49 Hassan touted by supporters as best choice for climate post Indonesians want their ex-foreign minister to take over from Yvo de Boer at the UNFCCC.
04/03 12:39 Romney’s ‘No Apology’ Outlines Foreign Policy for Fantasy World Frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination for President loves his zero-sum geopolitics.
03/03 18:34 Fractional-reserve banking - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia If you don't understand this stuff, then you should
03/03 16:11 Fog Catchers Bring Water to Parched Villages - National Geographic With a few thousand dollars and some volunteer labor, a village can set up fog-collecting nets that gather hundreds of gallons of water a day—without a single drop of rain
03/03 11:12 Cathy Ashton interviewed on the Today programme | BBC Radio 4 Ashton addresses critics, saying "i've not yet developed the capacity for time-travel"
28/02 16:48 Could Britain Re-Take The Falkland Islands Again? Probably not - too few ships, military over-stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, not much money to spare.
27/02 23:55 A parable about how one nation came to financial ruin. - By Charles Munger - Slate Magazine Why the US and the UK are screwed, by Warren Buffett's deputy at Berkshire Hathaway
27/02 22:25 100 Items to Disappear First Your supermarket looting list, in order of priority, should you find yourself facing the end of the world as you know it.
27/02 22:23 The World Without Us - Alan Weisman Q: Which part of our legacy will last forever? A: The TV and radio waves making their way through space.
27/02 22:18 Swiss face 'holy war' with Gadhafi's Libya - washingtonpost.com Switzerland unsure how seriously to take El Jefe's declaration of jihad in retaliation for their brief detention of his son in 2008
27/02 22:15 Subjects of UN Security Council Vetoes - Global Policy Forum Interesting factoid: the only times the UK has EVER used its Security Council veto on its own (without US or France) have been on S Rhodesia / Zimbabwe.
27/02 22:11 Freedom Ship - the City at Sea Cruise ship meets tax haven meets aircraft carrier
27/02 17:44 Congressman Tom Perriello On The Senate Stalling On Climate Change Legislation What happens when one of the founders of Avaaz.org gets elected to Congress
27/02 15:15 Kids' Center — Central Intelligence Agency Hi kids! Want to hear a story about our network of secret prisons?
27/02 14:08 Tyranny of the Alphabet The sad fate of academics with surnames that come from the nether regions of the alphabet...
27/02 11:41 British Tea Party Movement to launch on Saturday Posted without comment.
27/02 11:38 How one woman can cause economic boom or bust The media pushes stats well beyond their margin of error to get economic doom stories. And the stories themselves make economic doom more likely. Hey ho.
26/02 23:41 The Making of an Agent Training to protect the President. Or how to be a 'meat shield'.
26/02 18:11 Catherine Ashton: 'My Job Is to Keep Traffic Moving' | TIME Contra Miliband, the EU Foreign Minister outlines her role in foreign capitals
26/02 14:36 BBC News - MI5: The Court of Appeal's controversial paragraphs It's official: you can't believe a word MI5 says (this is news, apparently). But Lord Neuberger has backtracked on "obvious reason for distrusting any UK Government assurance".
26/02 13:58 Policypointers - Policy research from leading think tanks, research institutes and government departments worldwide Every publication, from every think tank, as it's published, if that's your idea of a good time
23/02 15:17 Climategate Meets the Law Senator Inhofe wants criminal sanctions against climate scientists - another stunningly mendacious article from Pajamas Media.
23/02 13:30 Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions Martin Rees bets that by 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to 1 million casualties in a single event. Find out what other experts are betting on here...
23/02 13:28 Yes Minister meets Alice in Wonderland - The Age An Australian writer blows the whistle on what it was like to be a speechwriter for the Department of Health and Ageing.
23/02 11:16 Greenspan, Friedman and Summers win Dynamite Prize in Economics For services blowing up the global economy. NB - the winners in order: retired; dead; running the US economy.
23/02 11:08 Greenpeace | Pacific trash vortex showing drift of ocean pollution. There's a 'trash carpet the size of Texas' in the middle of the Pacific, collated there by ocean currents
Source: GLOABL Dashboard Reading List Pipes
Articles & Publications
Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008).
Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Looking Forward: how do we build resilience?

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).

Shooting the Rapids: multilateralism and global risks

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, commissioned by Gordon Brown and presented to heads of state at the Progressive Governance Summit (April 2008).

Beyond a Zero-Sum Game on Climate Change

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven, as part of the British Council’s Transatlantic Network 2020 book ‘Talking Trans-Atlantic’ (March 2008).

From Bali to Copenhagen: towards an endgame for global climate policy?

Article by Alex Evans for the Environmental Policy & Law Journal (January 2008).

Climate Change: The State of the Debate

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the London Accord (December 2007).

The Post-Kyoto Bidding War: bringing developing countries into the fold

New paper by Alex Evans on climate policy after 2012 from the Center on International Cooperation (October 2007).

Alternative CSR: the Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Chapter on the FCO from Manchester University Press’s Alternative Comprehensive Spending Review, by David Steven (September 2007).

Fixing the UK’s Foreign Policy Apparatus: A Memo to Gordon Brown

Note by Alex Evans and David Steven about how to restructure the UK’s foreign policy system in order to manage trans-boundary global risks better (April 2007).

Evaluation and the New Public Diplomacy

Talk given by David Steven at the Wilton Park conference: The Future of Public Diplomacy. Focuses on strategies to drive public diplomacy to the heart of the foreign policy armoury (March 2007).

Articles and Publications

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Back to Realism

Transnational factors and threats should make state-centric approaches fall apart, in theory – but in practice, today’s statesment seem extraordinarily adept at sticking with “national interest”-based thinking.

Time to Stop Betting the House

Today, I launch a new paper on risk and resilience in the UK housing market. The report calls for a fundamental shift in the way in which the UK mortgage market is regulated and the how it operates.
The paper is published by the Long Finance Foundation, which is a counter to [...]

Read more » | Comments Off

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – or be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

The best news on climate change for months. Maybe.

Bono endorses contraction and convergence – potentially kicking off a major (and long overdue) strategic rethink on climate change among NGOs and civil society

Copenfailure: a first analysis

A very rough first analysis of the Copenhagen Outcome, two hours after the summit finished.

How we talk about climate change

We’re kidding ourselves if we think that “green collar jobs” will persuade people to take serious action on climate change. A deeper narrative is required.

The window of opportunity on scarcity issues starts to close (updated x3)

With oil and food prices already back to July 07 levels, have policymakers missed the window of opportunity to take action when prices eased after the credit crunch?