Anyway,  I’ve written a piece for Yale Global asking whether the combination of US concern over the rise of China and the US debt crisis mean the country is now set on path to de facto becoming a regional as opposed to global power.

Media coverage of President Barack Obama’s high-profile visit to Australia and plan to boost US presence in Asia may mask America’s shrinking global footprint. The combination of concern over China and the US debt crisis could set Washington on a course to becoming a mere regional power in the Asia Pacific. Read More

With Operation Unified Protector in Libya, NATO enters war for the third time in its history. And like its first-ever conflict with Yugoslavia in 1999, the alliance is anything but unified. But gone to war it has, carrying out air strikes against forces loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and more than 100 sorties on most days. The half-hearted nature of the intervention can be seen as a glass half full or half empty for the alliance. But over time the cherry-picking approach of the members could reduce it into irrelevance … Read more

Since the foreign military intervention began in Libya in early March, The World Tonight has been airing the debate over why action is being taken in Libya and not other countries, such as Ivory Coast.

Over the past decade, we have covered the waxing, in Sierra Leone and Kosovo, of so-called humanitarian or liberal intervention, and its waning in the wake of the Iraq invasion in 2003. It is never a simple case of the international community intervening to protect civilians who are victims of repression from their own governments. If it were, we would have seen foreign forces going into such countries as Sri Lanka or Burma as well as Sierra Leone and former Yugoslavia.

Read more

Mr Cameron’s visit was scheduled before the current unrest broke out in the region and the former PR executive in him attempted to head off potential criticism by adding a short stop in Egypt at the beginning of the tour to meet protest leaders and the provisional military government that removed Hosni Mubarak from power. 

However, this has not been an entirely successful gambit. 

The trip has attracted criticism, especially from liberal commentators, because several arms manufacturers are part of the trade delegation with the Prime Minister at the same time that the government had to revoke arms export licenses to Libya and Bahrain when the security forces there used violence against protesters. 

The nub of the criticism is that the government is trying to persuade governments in the Arab world to buy British defence equipment at the same time as London talks about the need for those governments in the Arab world to stop repressing the demands of their people for more democracy. Some commentators argue that Mr Cameron is trying to have his cake and eat it, whereas the former Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, recently attacked the coalition’s foreign policy as ‘low-grade mercantilism’. The charge is that it is too focused on trade at the expense of promoting democratic values. 

Mr Cameron has defended his approach and insisted in a speech in Kuwait and a town-hall meeting with Qatari students that you can promote trade and democracy at the same time and insisted Britain’s rules governing arms exports are among the toughest in the world. 

It looks like the upheaval in the Arab world has brought Mr Cameron’s foreign policy approach, honed in opposition, into contact with the reality of government and he is learning that he has to talk about values as much as the bottom line. 

Does this ring any bells? 

Ironically, when Tony Blair first came to power, his Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook took the opposite approach to Mr Cameron, but ended up facing not dissimilar criticism. On assuming offce, Mr Cook announced that henceforth Britain would have an ‘ethical foreign policy’, but this soon encountered charges of hypocricy and/or naivety, because of -  yes you guessed it – arms sales to authoritarian governments which didn’t square with respect for human rights and democratic values. In Labour’s case it was Indonesia’s violent attempt to suppress East Timor’s desire for independence in 1999 where British-made aircraft were used. 

On The World Tonight   this week we discussed the conflicting pressures on Mr Cameron, and the former British ambassador to Libya, Oliver Miles, argued that selling arms to foreign governments, under strict conditions that they will not be used for repressing their own people or attacking their neighbours, is not contradictory or hypocritical, it is a matter of judgement (as to whether those government’s will respect the guidelines or not).

But as Mr Cameron and Mr Blair before him have found out, the reality seems to be that once arms are licensed for export, it can become a political headache if that judgement turns out to be wrong.

Kosovo has been back on the front pages in recent weeks with lurid allegations against its Prime Minister and dominant politician, Hashim Thaci, accusing him of involvement in organised crime and even harvesting human organs for sale for profit.  Mr Thaci has denied the allegations. 

Mr Thaci has also been in the news as his party was accused of vote rigging in last month’s parliamentary elections which were the first organised by the Kosovo government. This week, the vote had to be rerun in some of Mr Thaci’s strongholds and a new government should be formed in the next few weeks. 

Why is this interesting to people who don’t follow affairs in south east Europe closely? Read More

First up were the Liberal Democrats in Liverpool.Their first conference as a party of government and junior Foreign Office Minister, Jeremy Browne, who described himself as the longest serving Liberal in the Foreign Office since 1919, gave the foreign affairs speech.

He made the now obligatory reference to the rise of China, India, Brazil and other powers and said Britain and Europe can’t stop this, but instead should seek to make it a force for good.He also argued that Britain still has a lot to offer and should be a catalyst for this new world order. It was short on specifics or examples of how this could be done, and how different is this from David Miliband’s talk when he was Foreign Secretary, that Britain should be a ‘global hub’?

The Lib Dems’ junior Defence Minister, Nick Harvey, focussed on one of the party’s keynote policies – a review of the need for a like-for-like replacement of Trident. In his speech, Nick Harvey argued for delaying the decision until after the next election, but his reasons appeared less about giving more time to consideration of the options and more about wrong footing the Labour Party. An argument that could give the impression that debate on a fundamental issue like the future of Britain’s nuclear weapons capability is being used as a tool to embarrass political opponents.

Next to Manchester and Labour’s conference. Being the first since losing power, it, perhaps understandably, witnessed quite a bit of raking over the recent past – both from internal critics of the last government and from former ministers defending their records.

A fringe meeting on the future of defence policy I went to heard concerns from trade unions and defence contractors about the potential impact on jobs and the industrial base of the defence cuts expected from the ongoing Strategic Defence and Security Review. The former Defence Secretary, Bob Ainsworth, was on the panel and on the defensive, responding to questions about his record with jibes back at some of his questioners.

The thing lacking was much discussion of what kind of role Britain should play in the world and what kind of military forces will be required for that. The defeat of David Miliband for the leadership and his decision to return to the backbenches inevitably meant there was less focus on his foreign policy speech to the conference than on discussion of his legacy, including as Foreign Secretary. On The World Tonight, journalist Ann McElvoy argued his main legacy was that in the wake of the Iraq war, which many believe was a big mistake, he made the case for Britain to retain its global reach and the need for intervention when the time is right, especially in Afghanistan.

On to the Conservatives in Birmingham.In the wake of the leak to the Daily Telegraph of Defence Secretary Liam Fox’s letter to David Cameron arguing against deep cuts to his budget, the mood among the Tories’ defence team seemed more upbeat, suggesting their rearguard action ahead of the Comprehensive Spending Review may be having some success. And, almost inevitably, discussion over Britain’s role in the world at the conference was dominated by the defence review as it nears completion.

The defence fringe I went to was a bit more wide-ranging than its Labour equivalent. The Defence Minister, Peter Luff, said the government is looking to France to be a strategic partner along with the US. He also suggested Britain would seek to work with France to develop new weapons systems bi-laterally, rather than enter new multilateral projects like the Eurofighter ‘Typhoon’. But the argument over what role Britain should play in the world came mainly from Nick Witney of the European Council on Foreign Relations rather than the politicians on the panel.

All this left me thinking that if the party conferences reflect the way the main parties are looking at Britain’s future global role, it does seem their focus is still very much on the defence review and cuts, rather than the more fundamental question of what role the UK should play in the changing world order. If there is a wider debate going on about what the UK’s military forces should be for, rather than simply what can be afforded, it seems to be going on largely behind the scenes. Whether that is wise is another matter.

But recent commentary and headlines – particularly in the US – have claimed Turkey is turning its back on the West as the rift between Turkey and Israel deepened following the killing of 9 Turkish citizens by Israeli forces when they raided a Turkish ship trying to run the blockade of Gaza in May.

Turkey is an ally of the US and a staunch member of NATO, it has also been trying to get into the EU for more than twenty years, so why are some commentators saying Ankara is turning away from the West?

A new poll from the German Marshall Fund published  today suggests Turks are cooling in their attitude towards the EU and NATO and are distinctly less concerned about Iran than the public in Turkey’s NATO allies.

And over the past 8 years, under the leadership of the AK Party, which is rooted in political islam, Turkey has changed.

Reuters

In the domestic arena, it has reduced the power and influence of the armed forces which see themselves as the guardians of the secular legacy of the Turkish Republic’s founder Kemal Ataturk.

But AK has also made its mark in foreign policy. It has accelerated Turkey’s negotiations to enter the EU, even if Cypriot blocking tactics and the lack of enthusiasm in France and Germany for Turkish entry have undermined the momentum of those talks.

But Foreign Minister, Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, who is a respected political scientist rather than a career politician, has articulated a clear vision of Turkey’s international role – and it doesn’t involve turning its back on NATO and the EU.

Professor Davutoglu espouses a policy of ‘zero problems with neighbours’, others have called it ‘neo-Ottomanism’, which has seen Ankara reaching out to its neighbours to the north, east and south. This has seen the Turks return to the Middle East as mediators between Israel and Syria and to the Balkans where they have recently tried to ease relations between Serbia and Bosnia. It has also seen booming trade with Russia and Iran.

And it is with Iran that American commentators and, seemingly, the Obama administration, have the most problem with Turkey’s changing foreign policy.

Turkey, along with Brazil, attempted to revive talks over Iran’s nuclear programme in May, when Prime Minister Racep Tayyip Erdogan and President Lula went to Tehran and got President Ahmedinejad to agree to send some nuclear material abroad for reprocessing as a confidence building measure. According to the Brazilians, the initiative was coordinated closely with the US and the Iranians agreed to the three conditions the US had insisted on. But following the announcement of the agreement, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, rejected it out of hand.

Brazil and Turkey were not best pleased and responded by voting against the stronger sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.

President George W Bush’s response to the September 11th attacks was to tell the world “you’re either with us, or you are with the terrorists”.

Some American commentators’ response to Turkey’s dispute with Israel and attempt to negotiate with Iran, has been reminiscent of this zero-sum approach by arguing  that if Turkey adopts foreign policies the US doesn’t agree with, then it is turning against the West.

Turkey is an emerging power – sometimes bracketed along with the BRIC countries. It’s a member of the G20 with an economy expected to grow more than 5% this year. It sees a new role for itself as a regional power, but it does not seem to see that as being incompatible with remaining a member of NATO and continuing talks to join the EU.

As a senior AK MP, Ozlem Turkone, told the World Tonight’s Paul Moss, in an interview to be broadcast tonight “of course Turkey is still an ally of the West and the US, but the world is no longer a bi-polar world. New regional powers are increasing and Turkey can play as a regional power”

The reaction in government and think-tank circles in Washington to Ankara asserting a more independent foreign policy illustrates the difficulty the US seems to be having adjusting to the changing distribution of power in the world, particularly in the Middle East where it asserts stong national interests of its own.

The World Tonight is broadcast at 22.00 UK time on BBC Radio 4 and online

The conflict had several immediate results.

Already fraught relations between Moscow and Tbilisi plunged to new depths and diplomatic relations were severed.

Russia and three other countries recognised the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

And relations between Russia and the West – the US and the EU – deteriorated to their worst level since the collapse of the USSR – there was even talk of a new Cold War from western politicians.

The Cold War analogies led some commentators to argue Russian foreign policy had taken a decisive anti-western turn and things could and/or should never be the same again

Two years later, the one thing that seems unlikely to ever be the same again is the shape and size of Georgia. If recognition from Russia was not enough, the recent International Court of Justice opinion that Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence was not against international law, makes it even less probable Tibilsi could regain control of its lost regions.

But otherwise those predictions and talk of a new Cold War couldn’t appear more misplaced.

Russian relations with Georgia remain hostile. Although the border has reopened in places and some business links survive, ties look set to remain frosty as long as Prime Minister Putin and President Saakashvili remain in office, given their dispute now has a personal animus that goes beyond the geo-political.

But when it comes to relations with the western powers, over the past year things have improved significantly.

One of President Obama’s most successful foreign policy initiatives to date has been the ‘reset’ of relations with Russia that has led to a new nuclear arms control agreement, START 2, but Washington appears to have been pushing at an open door. Though the talks over START took a bit longer than expected and the Russians bargained hard, President Medvedev genuinely seemed to want to do a deal.

When it comes to Europe, the Russians were reaching out to their arch rivals, the Poles, even before the tragic air crash in Russia that killed the Polish President and many of the country’s elite in April. Mr Putin, who has a reputation for playing hardball, handled the consequences of the disaster with a sensitivity that surprised many and Poland has reciprocated.

Russia knows Poland is now an important player in the EU and the overtures to Warsaw show Moscow wants to improve relations with the wider EU, damaged in the past few years by disputes from the disruption of gas supplies via Ukraine, to the killing of the former Russian agent, Alexander Litvinienko, in London.

What lies behind this change of policy in Moscow?

The reasons for the change of approach from Russia were outlined in a leaked Foreign Ministry paper in May  and they appear to be highly pragmatic.

The economic crisis came as huge shock to Russia’s leaders as the economy shrank by up to 10%. The fall in global economic activity led to a big fall in the price of oil on which Russia depends for much of its GDP.

The penny seems to have dropped in Moscow  that the oil and gas industry need to be much more efficient and the country needs to diversify away from reliance on the energy sector. So President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin want to modernise the Russian economy, and they have decided they need good relations with the western economies to get access to investment and technology.

Last month, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, wrote a significant essay in Russia in Global Affairs explaining the policy change in more depth

So is Moscow turning  westwards, rather than to its new partners in the BRIC bloc – China, India and Brazil – when it really needs help?.

Well this change could be a sign that the talk of the shifting balance of power in the world is overblown.

Equally, it could well be a sign that the emergence of new powers, alongside the presence of the traditional western powers, has given all states more options in foreign policy – and a country like Russia, which sees national interest through the lens of realpolitik, can pick its horses for courses in the global arena.

The World Tonight is broadcast at 22.00 UK time on BBC Radio 4 and online