Migration and climate change: old assumptions and new ideas Alex Glennie
October 21, 2011 | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Economics and development, Global system | 23 comments
I spent yesterday afternoon at the launch of the new Foresight report on Migration and Global Environmental Change, a study commissioned and led by the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir John Beddington. Drawing on the best available science and analysis from other disciplines, the project aimed to develop a picture of how international and internal migration patterns might be affected by global environmental changes between now and 2060, and the implications of these developments for policymakers.
It is a substantial report, and looks like important reading for those working on migration, climate change and many other related issues. It is also full of crunchy data and pretty charts, which always helps. Some of the top-line conclusions are unsurprising. It states that environmental change has a clear impact on migration through its influence on the web of political, economic and social drivers that lead people to move, and that this impact will only increase in the future as the world becomes more populated and as natural hazards proliferate. It also argues that the complex interaction of drivers will lead to different migration outcomes, and that well-planned and coordinated policy responses will reduce the risks of humanitarian emergencies and displacement. So far, so predictable.
However, some of its findings and recommendations are more counterintuitive, and should be studied carefully by policymakers. Three in particular jumped out at me.
1. People will increasingly migrate towards environmentally vulnerable areas.
Ask about environmental change and migration, and most people will think of events that that displace large numbers of people in a short period of time: disasters like Hurricane Katrina, the 2004 Asian tsunami and Cyclone Nargis, or droughts and famines in sub-Saharan Africa. The image is of people running away from environmental hazards – a vast stream of ‘climate refugees’. Yet as individuals and households try and carve out space in a rapidly changing global economy, migration will increasingly take place in the other direction, towards urban areas where there are more opportunities to diversify livelihoods but also where the risks of environmental hazards are greater.
This will be particularly true in large cities in low-income countries. For example, the research for this report indicates that the number of people living in floodplains of urban areas in East Asia may rise from 18 million in 2000 to anywhere between 45 and 67 million by 2060. This has huge implications for policymakers and urban planners, who will need to design cities that are capable of absorbing many more people in a sustainable way and that are much more resilient to environmental change than is currently the case.
2. Environmental change is equally like to make migration less possible as more probable.
Migration is an expensive business, requiring considerable financial capital. Contrary to popular opinion, it is not usually the poorest of the poor who migrate, but instead those who have acquired some economic assets. However, as the Foresight report points out, environmental changes (such as drought and flooding) may destroy or remove the very capital that enables people to migrate, leaving large numbers ‘trapped’ in areas that are particularly vulnerable. This comes with substantial risks, since it may encourage people to migrate in more irregular and unsafe ways to seek new sources of income.
3. Preventing or constraining migration is not a no-risk option.
While the debate on migration in many countries often generates recommendations about how to limit people’s ability to move, the evidence gathered for this report supports the case of those who argue that putting severe limits on migration can have a harmful impact on both the development of the individual in question as well as that of both sending and receiving countries (full disclosure: IPPR has broadly subscribed to this view in its work on both UK migration policies as well as international migration and development).
The Foresight report suggests that migration should be regarded as a broadly positive process that can give people access to new employment opportunities that increase their resilience to shocks. It points out that in 2009, remittances sent by international migrants to low income countries totalled around US$307 billion (nearly triple the amount of development aid that was disbursed in the same year). Remittances are not a silver bullet, and will not prevent migration driven by development needs or environmental changes. But by facilitating the freer movement of people both internally and internationally and improving their capacity to send remittances home, policymakers may enable more households to remain in situ than would otherwise be the case.
The work of the Foresight team has provided plenty of food for thought, and some good ideas that should be mainstreamed into planning on migration and environmental change. Let’s hope that policymakers are listening.
Environmental preservation in the United States and other parts of the world, including Australia, is viewed as the setting aside of natural resources to prevent damage caused by contact with humans or by certain human activities, such as logging, mining, hunting, and fishing, often to replace them with new human activities such as tourism and recreation. Thanks a lot.
The exact nature of this balance is controversial and there are many different ways for environmental concerns to be expressed in practice. Environmentalism and environmental concerns are often represented by the color green, but this association has been appropriated by the marketing industries and is a key tactic in the art of green washing. Thanks a lot.
Environmentalism has also changed to deal with new issues such as global warming and genetic engineering. Many youth of today's society have become more aware of the state of the planet and are deeming themselves environmentalists. School Eco Clubs are now working to create new ideals for the future through sustainable schools and other minor changes in student lives like buying organic food, clothing and personal care items. Thanks a lot.
Environmentalism as a movement covers broad areas of institutional oppression. These oppressions are: consumption of ecosystems and natural resources into waste, dumping waste into disadvantaged communities, air pollution, water pollution, weak infrastructure, exposure of organic life to toxins, mono culture, anti-polythene drive and various other focuses. Thanks.
Geschäftszeichen: 11 IN 23/07: In dem Insolvenzverfahren über das Vermögen der
T-C-H Service GmbH & Co. KG, Breitenstraße 37, 36251 Bad Hersfeld (AG Dresden, HRA 5714),
vertreten durch:
1. TCH Vermögensverwaltungs GmbH, (persönlich haftende Gesellschafterin),
vertreten durch:
[b]1.1. Florian Grotehans, Am Baumgarten 12, 36251 Bad Hersfeld, (Geschäftsführer), [/b]
wird die Prüfung der nachträglich angemeldeten Forderungen im schriftlichen Verfahren gemäß § 177 Abs. 1 Satz 2 InsO angeordnet. Geprüft werden alle bislang ungeprüften Forderungen, die noch bis zum 09.08.2011 einschließlich zur Insolvenztabelle angemeldet werden.
Die Schuldnerin, die Insolvenzgläubiger und der Insolvenzverwalter werden aufgefordert, ein eventuelles Bestreiten der Forderungen bis zum 24.08.2011 schriftlich beim Insolvenzgericht einzureichen oder zu Protokoll der Geschäftsstelle zu erklären.
Anderenfalls gelten die Forderungen nach Ablauf dieser Frist als festgestellt. Die bereits geprüften Forderungen werden von der mit diesem Beschluss angeordneten besonderen Forderungsprüfung nicht betroffen.
Amtsgericht Bad Hersfeld, 27.07.2011
Amtsgericht Bad Hersfeld Aktenzeichen: HRB 2126 Bekannt gemacht am: 18.02.2010 12:00 Uhr
Veröffentlichungen des Amtsgerichts Bad Hersfeld In () gesetzte Angaben der Anschrift und des Geschäftszweiges erfolgen ohne Gewähr.
Löschungen von Amts wegen
30.12.2009
Florian Grotehans Vermögensverwaltungs-GmbH, Bad Hersfeld, (Am Baumgarten 12, 36251 Bad Hersfeld).
Die Gesellschaft ist gemäß § 394 Absatz 1 FamFG [b]wegen Vermögenslosigkeit[/b] von Amts wegen gelöscht.
Florian Grotehans Vermögensverwaltungs GmbH vermögenslos!
In common law countries, legal juries render decisions of guilt, liability and quantify damages; juries are also used in athletic contests, book awards and similar activities. Sometimes a selection committee functions like a jury. In the middle ages, juries in continental Europe were used to determine the law according to consensus amongst local notables. Thanks a lot.
In the following discussion, participants discussed the role of municipalities and local designs of action to climate alter adaptation. participant stressed that the sum of slow-onset and rapid-onset natural disasters is not linear, while another inquired about political incentives that favor international aid to reply to rapid-onset disasters than national aid for DRR. Other interventions called for the principles stemming from the conference to focus on industrialized countries responsible for emitting greenhouse gases than on displaced persons
Environmental preservation in the United States and other parts of the world, including Australia, is viewed as the setting aside of natural resources to prevent damage caused by contact with humans or by certain human activities, such as logging, mining, hunting, and fishing, often to replace them with new human activities such as tourism and recreation. Thanks.
Environmental skeptics, dispute the claims of environmentalists, claiming they are either inaccurate or exaggerated. Anti-environmentalists, on the other hand, accept many of the claims made by environmentalists while simultaneously accepting that change is inevitable, regardless of cause and speed. Thanks.
The results of the research could contribute to the ongoing policy debate, which is
dominated by the search of numbers of future „climate change refugees‟.
Migration and climate change are such huge topics and so important for all of us. Important work was obviously done here and I echo Alex's final thought about hoping that policy-makers are listening. Let's for hope for that indeed.
One expert, Oli Brown of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, predicts a tenfold increase in the current number of internally displaced persons and international refugees by 2050. It is important to acknowledge that there is no consensus on this estimate. In fact there is major disagreement among experts about how to identify climate as a causal factor in internal and international migration…thanks
Policymakers are listening only if you have enough money to be heard…
Thanks for great article and an optimistic conclusion.
I have to agree. it is always "show me the money" scenario
Anti-environmentalists, on the other hand, accept lots of of the claims made by environmentalists while simultaneously accepting that alter is inevitable, irrespective of cause & speed
Hopefully we can save the environment as soon as possible and prevent further emissions of these greenhouse gases.
One expert, Oli Brown of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, predicts a tenfold increase in the current number of internally displaced persons and international refugees by 2050. It is important to acknowledge that there is no consensus on this estimate. In fact there is major disagreement among experts about how to identify climate as a causal factor in internal and international migration.
Neues von einer Pleitefirma von Florian Grotehans:
11 IN 23/07 : In dem Insolvenzverfahren über das Vermögen der T-C-H Service GmbH & Co. KG,
Breitenstraße 37, 36251 Bad Hersfeld (AG Dresden, HRA 5714),
vertr. d.: 1. TCH Vermögensverwaltungs GmbH, (persönlich haftende Gesellschafterin),
vertr. d.: 1.1.[b] Florian Grotehans, Am Baumgarten 12, 36251 Bad Hersfeld[/b], (Geschäftsführer) ist die
Zustimmung zur Schlussverteilung erteilt (§ 196 InsO) und Schlusstermin bestimmt auf:
Dienstag, 06.03.2012, 11:00 Uhr, Saal 8, EG, Amtsgerichtsgebäude, Dudenstraße 10, 36251 Bad Hersfeld.
Der Termin dient der
a) Erörterung der Schlussrechnung des Insolvenzverwalters
b) Erhebung von Einwendungen gegen das Schlussverzeichnis
c) Entscheidung der Gläubiger über nicht verwertbare Gegenstände der Insolvenzmasse
Amtsgericht Bad Hersfeld, 13.01.2012
It has been seen for a couple of years that liver disease is spreading a lot.I think the main thing is the level of fats increases inside the body which will effect the lever.
I wish we could do something about climate change that would actually halt it right now. So important for our world and for future generations
It's true that some of the conclusions drawn seem counter-intuitive. However, it's equally clear that they're substantiated by the evidence that was found
In common law countries legal juries render decisions of guilt liability and quantify damages. Juries are also used in athletic contests, book awards and similar activities. Sometimes a selection committee functions like a jury. In the middle ages, juries in continental Europe were used to determine the law according to consensus amongst local notables.