Global Dashboard – Blog covering International affairs and global risks

Archive for July, 2009

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t: Ban Ki-moon’s trip to Burma

July 6, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on East Asia and Pacific | No comments

Many development and humanitarian NGOs already regard their human rights brethren with a degree of exasperation for their no-compromise stance on Darfur and Northern Uganda  – where their successful push for International Criminal Court referrals in each case made life much harder for agencies trying to negotiate ceasefires or deliver help to people, without producing any obvious results in terms of conflict resolution or bringing baddies to justice. Having watched Human Rights Watch’s manoueverings on Burma over the weekend, I can see their point.

On Friday, HRW sallied forth for some incandescent briefing against Ban Ki-moon after Ban reportedly told General Than Shwe, the head of the ruling junta, that “I appreciate your commitment to moving your country forward”.  Cue the following response from HRW in the Guardian:

“That is absolute nonsense,” said Brad Adams, a Burma specialist at Human Rights Watch. “It’s just what we implored him not to say, to make these diplomatic gaffes. Than Shwe has steadily moved his country backwards.”

Then, over the weekend, Ban toughened up his line substantially.  During a speech to 500 officials, diplomats and opposition politicians in Rangoon, he castigated the regime for refusing to allow him to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi, saying it had “missed a very important opportunity” ahead of next year’s elections, in that

“allowing a visit to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi would have been an important symbol of the government’s willingness to embark on the kind of meaningful engagement that will be essential if the elections in 2010 are to be seen as credible”.

“I am deeply disappointed,” Ban concluded. So how did HRW react to the regime’s rebuff and to Ban’s tougher line?  Here’s the FT this morning:

“None of it was a surprise; his disappointment was almost a foregone conclusion,” said David Mathieson, a Burma researcher for Human Rights Watch. “It’s them saying, ‘We are going ahead with what we want to do and we don’t care what you think about it. The idea that you can come here and fix everything the west wants – forget it.’”

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, seems to be the line coming from HRW HQ – but then, it’s a pleasantly straightforward messaging strategy to sit on the sidelines and accuse anyone who tries to engage with the regime of being a sell-out (and no doubt it plays well with HRW’s members in these tough fundraising times). (more…)



Rep Michele Bachmann on US climate bill: “we choose liberty, or we choose tyranny”

July 5, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on What we're watching | No comments

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Sarah Palin’s bonkers resignation announcement

July 5, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on What we're watching | No comments

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Italy’s G8: from bad to worse

July 5, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on Global system | No comments

Folk close to preparations for Italy’s G8 next week have been rolling eyes, shruggling shoulders and wringing hands for some months now about the train wreck that the summit looks likely to be: but now that L’Aquila, the venue for the shindig, has just had yet another earthquake, maybe it’s time to start biting nails as well.  Still, at least the briefing pack sent to delegations has detailed instructions for what to do if disaster strikes (bet they all feel a whole lot better for that).

Security, meanwhile, is rock-solid – as two British representatives of the media discovered:

Top secret: a mobile basketball hoop specially installed for Barack Obama to enjoy during next week’s Group of Eight summit of world leaders is strictly off-limits to unauthorised personnel, the heavily armed Italian police guards warned.

Such is the chaotic state of preparations for the July 8-10 summit in a police barracks on the edge of the quake-torn city of L’Aquila that scores of reporters were kept penned for hours outside in a temporary press centre waiting for Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister and host, to speak.

Except, that is, for two frustrated correspondents of the Financial Times and The Guardian, who found an unguarded side entrance into the sprawling complex of the Ministry of Finance Police College and spent an hour mingling with workers before finally being captured at the hoop.

The FT’s Guy Dinmore reports that “digital photographs of the sensitive hoop [were] deleted” by vigilant members of the Guardia di Finanza, but the Guardian’s John Hooper showed more initiative: here’s his snap of the 5 star resort that awaits President Obama.

Nice. Incidentally, if you’re still optimistic enough about the summit to be curious about what’s actually on the agenda, Berlusconi’s modest ambitions include “the financial and economic crisis and the search for new proposals for stability and growth”; “the battle against climate change”; “the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation”; “development in Africa and other less advanced economies”; and “regional and global security … with special attention paid to the Middle East and Afghanistan”.



Sarah Palin quits as Alaska governor

July 3, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on North America | One comment

KTUU – ‘Alaska’s news source’ – has the [few] details:

Gov. Sarah Palin will resign her office in a few weeks, she said during a news conference at her Wasilla home Friday morning. Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will be inaugurated at the Governor’s Picnic at Pioneer Park in Fairbanks on Saturday, July 25, Palin said.

There was no immediate word as to why she will resign, though speculation has been rampant that the former vice presidential candidate is gearing up for a run at the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Steve Benen’s take:

Palin is making a terrible mistake. The lure of the national spotlight is strong, and the day-to-day challenges associated with running the executive branch of a state are no doubt difficult. There are probably plenty of far-right activists and donors whispering in Palin’s ear, telling her to ignore the naysayers and realize she’s ready to lead the nation, but she’s listening to the wrong people. Walking away from the governor’s office after one term is incredibly foolish — but walking away from the governor’s office after two and a half years in office is stupefying.

But the best comment (predating today’s announcement) is from conservative blogger Reihan Salam, who according to Benen “defended Palin repeatedly over the last several months, making excuses for her shortcomings, and arguing valiantly that Palin is a credible national figure” before reluctantly giving up:

Palin’s campaign antics can be forgiven. What can’t be forgiven is the ham-handed way she’s tried to build her national profile since she returned to Alaska. She’s abandoned the bold right-left populism that won over Alaska voters — and me — in the first place in favor of an increasingly defensive and harsh partisanship…. One can’t help but get the impression that Palin is a clownish, vindictive amateur…. What I’m wondering is: Has Sarah Palin undergone some kind of secret lobotomy?



We love Gordon

July 3, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on Climate and resource scarcity, UK | No comments

Yes, yes, it’s not a phrase one hears very often these days, but credit where it’s due: Gordon Brown’s climate change speech a week ago was first rate. Don’t just take it from me – Dan Smith thinks so too:

I think the Brown government – covered as it is with the ordure of scandal and recession that is dished out daily by the UK news media, the commentariat and the blogosphere – deserves a whole heap of credit for getting out in front of the crowd like this.

So what’s Brown done that’s so praiseworthy? In essence, the right thing on financing for climate change in developing countries (both the adaptation and the mitigation / technology transfer side of the equation). The key points in his speech are:

- a commitment that “I will commit the UK now to paying its fair share of the global total of [a climate financing mechanism for developing countries]. And we would expect other developed countries to do the same”;

- recognition that climate finance must be additional to the 0.7% aid target, and that “while some climate finance can come from official development assistance – where it clearly meets both poverty reduction and adaptation or mitigation objectives – a ceiling should be placed on this … in the UK we will limit such expenditure to up to 10% of our official development assistance. And we will work towards this limit being agreed internationally”;

- and a headline global needs figure of $100 billion a year by 2020 for adaptation.

These are really significant announcements.  The $100 billion figure is at the high end of the range of figures so far mentioned (and looking at the rate at which the science outlook is worsening on climate damages, the high end is the correct end of the spectrum). But better still is the absolutely explicit commitment on additionality. Aid advocates have been seriously worried about the potential that more and more development aid would end up being diverted to coping with climate, rather than actively reducing poverty – Brown’s speech puts a tough new benchmark in place.

The big question now is whether the Conservative party will match Brown’s pledge on adaptation finance. True, they say that they’re committed to reaching the 0.7% aid spending target (it’s one of only two spending areas that the Conservatives have promised to protect) – but that’s of little use if all the money ends up being diverted to coping with climate change…



2009 Failed States Index: Britain’s security apparatus worse than UAE’s, apparently

July 3, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on Conflict and security, UK | No comments

Here in the UK, there’s much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth about the fact that it’s even conceivable that we might lose our triple-A credit rating.

But over at ForeignPolicy.com, the bad news is already here: for it emerges that our “security apparatus” is ranked worse than the United Arab Emirates, which kind of makes you question their methodology given things like this - although on the other hand, now that I think of it…

It also transpires in the full list that Iceland is regarded as more stable than Britain; and that Ireland is even better off, being a member of the coveted “most stable” club (other members: Scandics; Aussies; Kiwis; er – that’s it).  And there I was thinking that Ireland and Iceland had felt the brunt of the credit crunch among OECD countries…



Paul Krugman: climate sceptics in Congress are guilty of treason

July 3, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on Climate and resource scarcity, North America | No comments

Paul Krugman’s NYT column on Monday didn’t pull any punches as far as the 212 Congresspeople who voted ‘no’ on the Waxman-Markey climate bill were concerned:

as I watched the deniers make their arguments, I couldn’t help thinking that I was watching a form of treason — treason against the planet.

He continues:

…sometimes even the most authoritative analyses get things wrong. And if dissenting opinion-makers and politicians based their dissent on hard work and hard thinking — if they had carefully studied the issue, consulted with experts and concluded that the overwhelming scientific consensus was misguided — they could at least claim to be acting responsibly.

But if you watched the debate on Friday, you didn’t see people who’ve thought hard about a crucial issue, and are trying to do the right thing. What you saw, instead, were people who show no sign of being interested in the truth. They don’t like the political and policy implications of climate change, so they’ve decided not to believe in it — and they’ll grab any argument, nomatter how disreputable, that feeds their denial.

(more…)



Patriotism + fighting malaria + Diddy = a piss-up

July 2, 2009 | by Richard Gowan | More on Cooperation and coherence, Influence and networks, North America, Off topic | No comments

If one man can see the links between global health risks and national security, it’s Diddy:

“Official Vodka of Summer” and Diddy Celebrate Military Service with an Invitation to the Summer’s Most Exclusive Party

NEW YORK, June 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ – CIROC Ultra Premium Vodka, the “Official Vodka of Summer,” and Sean “Diddy” Combs today have invited Tanya Vinson of the United States Air Force to serve as Diddy’s personal guest as he celebrates our nation’s independence during his world-famous White Party on July 4, 2009 in Los Angeles, California, which this year is co-hosted by ‘Malaria No More,’ a non-profit, non-governmental organization determined to end the malaria crisis in Africa.

As a sponsor of the event, CIROC Vodka launched a program in April to honor several American service men and women with entry to this exclusive event. The grand prize winner, Tanya Vinson, has received the ultimate CIROC White Party experience for two, including round trip airfare, hotel accommodations, and transportation, in recognition of her outstanding commitment to the armed forces.

“As we celebrate Independence Day at this year’s White Party, it’s only fitting that we show our gratitude for the heroic men and women who protect our freedom every day,” said Combs, who entered into a strategic marketing alliance with the ultra-premium spirit more than one year ago. “I am proud to honor our military by personally hosting Tanya at my Fourth of July White Party.”

A staple on the celebrity party circuit, Diddy’s White Party is revered as one of the most sophisticated and stylish events of the year. Although traditionally held at the end of summer, this year’s fete – themed ‘We Are Family’ – will occur on Independence Day in honor of our nation’s independence and the historic presidential election.

Ms. Vinson, a recruiter in the United States Air Force, holds what has become one of the toughest jobs in the military. As one of the faces for this branch of service, she is tasked with replenishing the ranks of our military during one of the most challenging times in our nation’s history.

The maker’s of CIROC Vodka would like to remind all consumers to celebrate life responsibly this Fourth of July. Use a designated a driver. Those without a designated driver can text “DRIVESAFE” to 44264 from their wireless devices to receive taxi information in their area.

Diageo
Taylor PR

Tammy Thompson
Alexandra Sklansky

Tammy.Thompson@diageo.com
asklansky@taylorpr.com
203-229-4876
212-714-5702

Hat-tip: The Intoxocologist



Killer (probably not) in the rain

July 2, 2009 | by Richard Gowan | More on Climate and resource scarcity, North America | No comments

Raymond Chandler got it wrong:

In fact, an analysis by The New York Times of rainfall and homicides for the last six years shows that when it rains substantially in the summertime, there are fewer homicides.

When there was no precipitation, there was an average of 17 homicides every 10 days. But when there was an inch or more of rain, the average dropped to 14.

That does not surprise Vernon J. Geberth a former Bronx homicide squad commanding officer. He said that when there was a downpour, the police would sometimes joke, “The best cop in the world is on duty tonight.”

The gap is even wider when looking just at Saturdays in the summer. Those are the days that typically post the highest number of homicides in a year. When there was no rain, the average number of homicides for every 10 Saturdays in summer jumped to 24. For every 10 Saturdays doused with at least an inch of rain, the average number was 18.

These numbers may add up to something of a bright spot for a city that officially entered summer with the second wettest June on record, according to meteorologists at Pennsylvania State University. With a little more than 200 homicides so far this year, the city is on pace for a low not seen since the early 1960s. The first few days of July promise more of the same damp weather, with a chance of rain every day.



How not to write a newspaper headline

July 2, 2009 | by Richard Gowan | More on Off topic | No comments

From the Press Association, a headline to thrill the dullest reader:

UN chief to attend committee



Former CIA officer – WTF?

July 1, 2009 | by Charlie Edwards | More on What we're watching | One comment

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Ants!

July 1, 2009 | by Richard Gowan | More on Cooperation and coherence, Off topic | No comments

From the BBC, something to make you feel a bit icky:

A single mega-colony of ants has colonised much of the world, scientists have discovered.  Argentine ants living in vast numbers across Europe, the US and Japan belong to the same interrelated colony, and will refuse to fight one another.

The colony may be the largest of its type ever known for any insect species, and could rival humans in the scale of its world domination.  What’s more, people are unwittingly helping the mega-colony stick together.

Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) were once native to South America. But people have unintentionally introduced the ants to all continents except Antarctica.

These introduced Argentine ants are renowned for forming large colonies, and for becoming a significant pest, attacking native animals and crops.

In Europe, one vast colony of Argentine ants is thought to stretch for 6,000km (3,700 miles) along the Mediterranean coast, while another in the US, known as the ‘Californian large’, extends over 900km (560 miles) along the coast of California. A third huge colony exists on the west coast of Japan.

While ants are usually highly territorial, those living within each super-colony are tolerant of one another, even if they live tens or hundreds of kilometres apart. Each super-colony, however, was thought to be quite distinct.

But it now appears that billions of Argentine ants around the world all actually belong to one single global mega-colony.



URBEINGRECORDED » Discontinuity & Opportunity in a Hyper-Connected World
Great discussion of complexity and network theory and its relevance to global risks, from Chris Arkenberg

The Emissions Gap Report
This publication aims to assess the following questions: are countries’ pledges of action collectively consistent with and, if implemented, likely to achieve the 2˚C and 1.5˚C temperature goals? If not, how big is the gap between emission levels consistent with these temperature goals and the emissions expected as a result of the pledges?

The Spectator runs false sea-level claims on its cover
These claims rely on misinterpretations of scientific data so grave that even an arts graduate such as Fraser Nelson should have been able to spot them.

Europe’s Insult Diplomacy - Infographic
British Prime Minister David Cameron called French President Nicolas Sarkozy “a hidden dwarf” as part of a joke told to a journalist. German Chancellor Angela Merkel referred to Sarkozy as “Mr. Bean,” while Sarkozy called her “La Boche,” or the Kraut. Spanish Prime Minister José Zapatero is “too pink” because of the high proportion of women in his cabinet, said Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. And Berlusconi’s opinion of the euro? “A disaster,” he said, that has “screwed everybody.”

Solar Power's Good News
The White House has challenged the solar industry to produce clean electricity at $1 per watt. It has also set a national goal to achieve 80 percent clean energy use by 2035…The good news is that researchers are racing toward that goal at an impressive rate.

BBC News - Viewpoint: Is the alcohol message all wrong?
"The effects of alcohol on behaviour are determined by cultural rules and norms, not by the chemical actions of ethanol."

Something's Happening Here - NYT - Tom Friedman
When you see spontaneous social protests erupting from Tunisia to Tel Aviv to Wall Street, it’s clear that something is happening globally that needs defining

Foreign Aid Set to Take Hit in U.S. Budget Crisis - NYTimes.com
America’s budget crisis at home is forcing the first significant cuts in overseas aid in nearly two decades

Israel - Adrift at Sea Alone - NYTimes.com
Tom Friedman bemoans "the most diplomatically inept and strategically incompetent government in Israel’s history"

Eurozone: A nightmare scenario - FT.com
How it could all go pear-shaped - your cut-out-and-keep flow chart guide

Sharp fall in poor countries' dependency on foreign aid says ActionAid report
Aid dependency among 54 of the world’s poorest countries has declined by a third over the last decade, according to a new report from ActionAid.

World environment programs in budget crosshairs | Reuters
Global conservation programs are prime targets for budget-cutting: they sit at the crossroads of two things Americans dislike spending money on, aid and environment.

Attack of the Superweed - BusinessWeek
widespread use of Roundup has led to the evolution of far-tougher-to-eradicate strains of weeds

Jon Stewart Says Rick Perry Is the Candidate Republicans Want, and Deserve
Laugh out loud funny

Global reach is the prize at Busan - Resources - Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
Jonathan Glennie and Andrew Rogerson on what you need to know ahead of the big aid effectiveness summit

When Bloggers Don’t Follow the Script, to ConAgra’s Chagrin - NYTimes.com
Ha ha ha - epic PR #fail

Obama backs down on tighter smog regulations | World news | The Guardian
In case you missed it. Yes we can...

Wikileaked cable: executions of children by US forces in Iraq
Wikileaked cable with harrowing reports of  US forces handcuffing and then killing 10 people - including children aged 5 years, 3 years and 5 months.

BBC News - Tests show fastest way to board passenger planes
The way airlines board planes turns out to be the least efficient

New sources of aid: Charity begins abroad | The Economist
"The establishment donors’ aid monopoly is finished."

Who Doomed Sarah Palin's Presidential Dream? | TPMDC
Where did it all go wrong for Sarah?

The Intergenerational Foundation
"We believe that each generation should pay its own way, which is not happening at present."

Should we have a land value tax? - MoneyWeek
Discussion of pros and cons for the UK, following an article by OECD's chief economist in Prospect

Toward a Post-2015 Development Paradigm | Centre for International Governance Innovation | Centre pour l'innovation dans la gouvernance internationale
12 new development goals are proposed to replace the MDGs from 2015 - the outcome of an IFRC / CIGI conference at Bellagio

China Gets (Needlessly) Defensive Over Famine in Africa - China Real Time Report - WSJ
Germany's Africa policy coordinator causes dispute by singling out Chinese landgrabs as a culprit in the Horn of Africa famine

Latin America: A toxic trade - FT.com
Must read broadside against probably the most stupid and avoidable public policy screw-up in recent memory: the war on drugs

The intellectual collapse of left and right - FT.com
Michael Lind on how the economic inclusion narratives of centre left and centre right are simultaneously imploding - must read

Julia Gillard back to rock-bottom: Newspoll | The Australian
Bad news for supporters of green taxes and decisive action on climate change

Oxfam’s looking for a new Head of Research
A plum role is up for grabs

The global crisis of institutional legitimacy | Felix Salmon
"Our hearts want government to come through and save the economy. But our heads know that it’s not going to happen."

UBS' George Magnus On Marxist Existential Crises And The "Convulsions Of A Political Economy" | ZeroHedge
Not every day you see investment banks publishing detailed analysis of Karl Marx

Food Prices Could Hit Tipping Point for Global Unrest | Wired Science | Wired.com
New quant research on thresholds over which high food prices cause riots

Ambassador Locke Picks Up His Own Coffee, Gains 'Hero' Status Among Chinese : The Two-Way : NPR
Some pictures of the brand new U.S. ambassador to China are causing quite a stir.

Jon Stewart | Ron Paul | Michele Bachmann | Mediaite
Jon Stewart breaks down the state of play on the Republican Presidential race

The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution › When?
Some properly out of the box thinking from Vinay Gupta. Must-read.

England’s riots: If the UK were a fragile state… | Dan Smith's blog
By the head of a leading peacebuilding NGO

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder From 9/11 Still Haunts - NYTimes.com
At least 10,000 New Yorkers still have PTSD from 9/11

The unlikely social network fuelling the Tottenham riots « The Urban Mashup Blog
Not Twitter, not Facebook but.... Blackberry Messenger

Mapping world food price volatility | Nourishing the Planet
Clickable map of global food price hotspots

Will the 2012 Earth Summit be a flop? > From Poverty to Power
Great summary of the state of play on Rio 2012 from Oxfam's Sarah Best

Articles & Publications
Sustainable Development Goals – a useful outcome from Rio+20?

Recent months have seen increasing interest in the idea that Rio+20 could be the launch pad for a new set of ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs).  But what would SDGs cover, what would a process to define and then implement them look like, and what would some of the key political challenges be? This short briefing [...]

Creating Consensus on a post-2015 framework for development

Any global framework for development which is agreed after 2015 will be a political deal between states. This paper looks at recent trends in policy and politics in emerging economies and traditional donors to assess where a consenus might lie. It suggests some principles for a post-2015 agreement which emerge from recent policy developments

A post-2015 Global Development Agreement: why, who what?

Paper from ODI and UNDP, authored by Claire Melamed and Andy Sumner, summarising the evidence on the impact of the MDGs, and looking at current trends in poverty and in global governance that will affect the shape and the scope of any future agreement on global development.

Resource Scarcity, Fair Shares and Development

Why resource scarcity will be a game changer for global justice agendas, and what aid donors, NGOs and other development opinion formers need to do about it. WWF / Oxfam report by Alex Evans.

Making Rio 2012 Work: Setting the stage for global economic, social and ecological renewal

The Rio 2012 sustainable development summit is at risk of being the latest in a long line of damp squibs on environmental multilateralism – but could still make real progress, if it focuses on greening growth and building resilience to shocks and stresses, and above all faces up to the issues of fair shares that arise in a world of limits.

Governance for a Resilient Food System

How national and international governance systems need to be reconfigured to meet the challenges of food security in a world of tighter supply and demand balances and increasing volatility. Report for Oxfam’s new Grow campaign by Alex Evans. (May 2011)

Running out of everything: how scarcity drives crisis in Pakistan

Article on scarcity of resources in Pakistan and what it means for the country.

Economics for a world with limits

Text of speech by Alex Evans to Institute for New Economic Thinking annual conference at Bretton Woods; the YouTube video is here. (April 2011) Download Speech

Unscrambling the price spike

Article published on China Dialogue on reasons for the new food price spike, including potential implications of the current drought in China. (February 2011) Download Article

2020 Development Futures

Eight critical uncertainties for development over the next decade, and ten recommendations for what ActionAid – who commissioned this report – should do to prepare for them

American Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Article published in World Politics Review on current American foreign policy

The World in 2020 – Geopolitical and Trends Analysis

Report asking how organisations can prosper in what will be a turbulent period for world order

Globalization and Scarcity

Center on International Cooperation report on what forms of multilateral cooperation are needed to manage scarcity of resources

Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict

Background paper on whether resource scarcity and climate change will cause increased violent conflict

Organizing for Influence: UK Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Chatham House report on how the UK’s new coalition government should upgrade and reform the way Britain conducts foreign policy

The Long Crisis Seminar

Introductory remarks by David Steven at a Brookings Institution seminar on risk and resilience in the global system (March 2010)

Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008). Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Looking Forward: how do we build resilience?

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).

Shooting the Rapids: multilateralism and global risks

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, commissioned by Gordon Brown and presented to heads of state at the Progressive Governance Summit (April 2008).

Beyond a Zero-Sum Game on Climate Change

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven, as part of the British Council’s Transatlantic Network 2020 book ‘Talking Trans-Atlantic’ (March 2008).

From Bali to Copenhagen: towards an endgame for global climate policy?

Article by Alex Evans for the Environmental Policy & Law Journal (January 2008).

Climate Change: The State of the Debate

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the London Accord (December 2007).

The Post-Kyoto Bidding War: bringing developing countries into the fold

New paper by Alex Evans on climate policy after 2012 from the Center on International Cooperation (October 2007).

Alternative CSR: the Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Chapter on the FCO from Manchester University Press’s Alternative Comprehensive Spending Review, by David Steven (September 2007).

Fixing the UK’s Foreign Policy Apparatus: A Memo to Gordon Brown

Note by Alex Evans and David Steven about how to restructure the UK’s foreign policy system in order to manage trans-boundary global risks better (April 2007).

Evaluation and the New Public Diplomacy

Talk given by David Steven at the Wilton Park conference: The Future of Public Diplomacy. Focuses on strategies to drive public diplomacy to the heart of the foreign policy armoury (March 2007).

Articles and Publications

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Gabrielle Giffords to step down | 2 Comments

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Oh to be in the president of Turkmenistan’s entourage… | 1 Comment

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David Carr And Danah Boyd Share Insights | Comments Off

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Edgar Mitchell on the Overview Effect | 1 Comment

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Presidential debate fail | 2 Comments

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Key Posts
Cheap food: bad. Expensive food: terrible. Why the FAO’s glass is always empty8

It’s interesting to look back a few years – to when the world was worried that food was too cheap, not too expensive. In 2004, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization looked back on a long bear market for food: forty years in which real prices of agricultural commodities had fallen 2% per year, or [...]

How many people are hungry?3

The good news: poverty is in retreat. The bad news: hunger isn’t.  That’s the headline finding for the first Millennium Development Goal , which aims to halve the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day and the proportion of people living in hunger between 1990 and 2015. Great strides have been made [...]

“Freeing the entire human race from want”2

The MDGs are so over Having just been rude about one World Bank report, here’s a positive review of another – the Global Monitoring Report 2011, which the Bank produces jointly with the IMF. The GMR updates progress against the Millennium Development Goals – targets that were set as the culmination of a push throughout [...]

21 years ahead of its time5

A 1989 article on ‘the global teenager’ in Whole Earth Review was way ahead of its time in identifying the crux of what today’s youth bulge means for global change

Is it time for Sustainable Development Goals?4

The pros and cons of a new global set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and how they might work in practice

The one book you must read over the summer9

Mark Lynas’s new book The God Species is a must-read for environmentalists

Fair shares in a world of limits: the new front line for development-

Thoughts after from a joint WWF / Oxfam seminar on resource scarcity, fair shares and development.

What the ‘powershift’ narrative overlooks on US-China relations-

The ‘powershift’ narrative about US-China relations obscures how much they have in common: unsustainable growth paths, shaky financial sectors, political sclerosis, massive inequality, reliance on imported resources and above all their status as the two principal obstacles to collective action on shared global risks.