Pandemic flu – what are we missing?

by | Jul 28, 2009 | Global system, UK

For governments, managing risk is a pretty thankless task. Today, the House of Lords Science and Technology committee published its report on pandemic flu. Here’s the finding you won’t see widely reported:

We know from the evidence we received prior to the outbreak of swine flu that there has been a significant amount of work undertaken to ensure UK pandemic preparedness. According to Ms Merron, the WHO recognised the UK “as one of the best-prepared countries in the world”. Professor Lindsey Davies, National Director of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness at the DoH, told us that “No other country in the world has done more than we have to ensure that we protect the population and that we minimise the pandemic’s impact”-other countries are now coming to the United Kingdom for advice.

Instead, the spotlight will be firmly on where the government has got it wrong:

Guardian: “Committee concerned over delays, failures and preparedness for expected ‘second wave’ of virus in autumn.”

Telegraph: “Committee says Government has failed to offer reassurance that NHS services can deal with a “second wave” of swine flu.”

Sun: “NHS can’t cope with swine flu.”

Independent: “The spy who blew the whistle on his former colleagues is now living in a squat, dressing as a woman, and railing against the ‘Zionist empire’.” [Sorry – seem to have got my wires crossed here.]

Of course, none of these stories is a surprise. The Committee made sure the bad news got out over the weekend, leaking the bad bits to the BBC. Ministers have been on the defensive ever since.

Three reasons why this matters. First, it feeds cynicism about the public sector, helping convince ordinary punters that civil servants are such morons that they haven’t done anything useful to prepare for the pandemic.

Second, it creates a cartoonish view of the nature, and limitations, of any response to a serious pandemic. With an attack rate of 30%, our social, economic and health systems are certain to degrade to a degree (though hopefully, in a controlled way). Resilience relies on individuals, families, communities and networks of all kinds to pull together.  Expecting the government to ride around dolling out magic bullets is both a self-indulgent and ultimately self-defeating strategy.

The final point, though, is perhaps the most serious one. The Lords’ criticisms are aimed mostly at patchy implementation of a good strategy. But what if the strategy itself is faulty – not just the detail of its execution? That would be a much more serious matter.

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More unrest in Nigeria

by | Jul 27, 2009 | Africa, Conflict and security

The BBC reports that the weekend’s violence in the city of Bauchi has spread to other parts of northern Nigeria, including the sleepy northeastern town of Maiduguri and Wudil, a town near Kano.  A BBC reporter counted over 100 bodies in Bauchi.

Blame has been placed on a militant Islamist group called Boko Haram, an organisation made up mostly of former university students who are opposed to the westernisation of education. Apparently (although nothing is clear), some of the group’s leaders were arrested, so their cadets took to the streets with guns to secure their release.

Most of northern Nigeria is under sharia law. On a trip there earlier this month for the Next Generation Nigeria project, I met sharia leaders in Kano, the north’s biggest city. They told me that resistance to western education had historic roots, as it was seen as an attempt by southern Christians, who had been educated by the British colonisers, to spread their religion to the Muslim north.

Only in recent years has this resistance weakened, and many parents are now very keen for their children to attend western schools. Trouble is, there aren’t enough places for the burgeoning numbers of children, so in many areas Islamic schools remain the only option. State governments are encouraging these schools to teach secular subjects like English and maths as well as Kuranic studies and Arabic.

The religious leaders I spoke to were generally fine with this, but it seems not all their peers are of the same opinion. Mohammed Yusuf, the leader of Boko Haram, has said western education is forbidden, and recruited students to advance his arguments. Given how bad Nigeria’s schools and universities are, and how slim graduates’ prospects of getting a decent job when they leave, the recruitment drive probably isn’t difficult.

If Yusuf’s campaign is successful, it will be a blow to northern Nigeria’s development prospects. Although Islamic schools may do a good job of inculcating values and morality, for the vast majority of their alumni what they teach is of no value at all to their careers.  I asked a sharia leader how Arabic and Kuranic studies help students find jobs, and he replied that they could work as teachers in such schools or as imams. This would be fine if everybody could become an imam or a teacher, I said, but then there wouldn’t be any congregation or students. He smiled patiently, and said that the rest would work in the fields or hawking in the street.  In the north, as in the country as a whole, too many leaders benefit from the status quo to concern themselves with progress.