Global Dashboard – Blog covering International affairs and global risks

Archive for April, 2009

Landgrab map

April 15, 2009 | by Mark Weston | More on Climate and resource scarcity | One comment

Further to Alex’s recent posts (here, here and here) on wealthy countries’ purchases of arable land in the developing world, here’s a map from Le Monde showing the main buyers of land, their primary targets, and the amount of land in hectares they are buying up. The map includes both done deals and deals that are still being negotiated. Note the massive sell-offs by the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan and Laos to China, Saudi and the United Arab Emirates. Excuse the French.

landgrabmap



K’Naan on Somali pirates: “coast guards of the country”

April 14, 2009 | by David Steven | More on What we're watching | No comments

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Obama: leading the low carbon revolution

April 14, 2009 | by David Steven | More on What we're watching | No comments

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Right to Obama – “you’re making us crazy”

April 14, 2009 | by David Steven | More on Conflict and security, North America | No comments

The US  report (linked by Alex earlier) on far-right extremism risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, as it drives the far-right even further up the wall. Michelle Malkin voices the rage:

The “report [is] one of the most embarrassingly shoddy pieces of propaganda I’d ever read out of DHS. I couldn’t believe it was real… The piece of crap report issued on April 7 is a sweeping indictment of conservatives. And the intent is clear…In Obama land, there are no coincidences. It is no coincidence that this report echoes Tea Party-bashing left-wing blogs… and demonizes the very Americans who will be protesting in the thousands on Wednesday for the nationwide Tax Day Tea Party.

Andrew Sullivan has the best snark: “Why, one wonders, would Michelle Malkin read a DHS report on fringe, far-right extremism that could lead to violence or Oklahoma-style domestic terrorism and think … they’re talking about her?”

(Image courtesy: Random Factor)



Berlusconi: His greatest gaffes*

April 14, 2009 | by Charlie Edwards | More on Off topic | No comments

He’s done it again. Berlusconi’s gaffe’s just keep on coming. His latest comes as he went on a walkabout in the Abruzzo earthquake zone.  Turning to one female doctor he told her: “I wouldn’t mind being resuscitated by you” . Dr Fabiola Carrieri, a specialist in intensive care from Milan replied diplomatically that she hoped she would never have to resuscitate him and that he had been trying to raise a smile in the middle of all the sorrow we have all around us.

Dr Carrieri a specialist and a complete professional. Sadly the same can’t be said for the Italian Prime Minister. Remember these:

April 2009: Touring camps set up for survivors of the recent Italian earthquake he told a journalist: They have everything they need, they have medical care, hot food… Of course, their current lodgings are a bit temporary. but they should see it like a weekend of camping

On left-wing voters at a conference of retailers during the 2006 campaign : “I trust the intelligence of the Italian people too much to think that there are so many pricks around who would vote against their own best interests.”

At the launch of the 2006 campaign : I am the Jesus Christ of politics. I am a patient victim, I put up with everyone, I sacrifice myself for everyone

To German MEP Martin Schulz, at start of Italy’s EU presidency in July 2003 : I know that in Italy there is a man producing a film on Nazi concentration camps – I shall put you forward for the role of Kapo (guard chosen from among the prisoners) – you would be perfect.

*We will aim to update this page as and when they occur in the future. More here



Homeland Security warns on right wing extremism

April 14, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on Influence and networks, North America | 2 comments

The US Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis apparently issued an assessment to US law enforcement agencies last week, warning that conditions are ripe for radicalisation and recruitment on the extreme right.  According to TacOps:

“Right-wing extremists have capitalized on the election of the first African American president, and are focusing their efforts to recruit new members, mobilize existing supporters and broaden their scope and appeal through propaganda, but they have not yet turned to attack planning,” the assessment reads.

“The current economic and political climate has some similarities to the 1990s when right-wing extremism experienced a resurgence fueled largely by an economic recession, criticism about the outsourcing of jobs and the perceived threat to U.S. power and sovereignty by other foreign powers,” it continues.

The report also suggests that returning veterans are attractive recruits for right-wing groups looking for “combat skills and experience” so as to boost their “violent capabilities.” It adds that new restrictions on gun ownership and the difficulty of veterans to reintegrate into their communities “could lead to the potential emergence of terrorist groups or lone wolf extremists capable of carrying out violent attacks.”

“Proposed imposition of firearms restrictions and weapons bans likely would attract new members into the ranks of right-wing extremist groups … The high volume of purchases and stockpiling of weapons and ammunition by right-wing extremists in anticipation of restrictions and bans in some parts of the country continue to be a primary concern to law enforcement,” the report says.



Armando Iannucci’s In The Loop – out April 17

April 14, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on What we're watching | No comments

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If the Independent ran the country…

April 14, 2009 | by David Steven | More on UK | 2 comments

Prime Minister warned by journalist – doesn’t listen. (shock, horror). Andy McSmith – a ‘senior reporter’ at the Independent writes:

McBride is a man of parts. When I dealt with him professionally, I was always impressed by how quickly and succinctly he replied to queries. And yet, though I do not normally consider it my business to intervene in the political process, I did attempt two years ago to convey a message to Gordon Brown, through one of his trustees, that it would be unwise to move McBride from the Treasury to the highly exposed position of official spokesman for the Prime Minister.

Gob-smackingly bizarre that McSmith believes this to be his job.



Some pirates are better than others

April 14, 2009 | by Mark Weston | More on Africa, Conflict and security | No comments

The International Maritime Bureau’s live piracy map is worth a look. In 2005 (see here for 2005 map), there were many more attacks in South East Asia than off the horn of Africa, but today Somalia has become the epicentre of the industry. There have been more attacks off the horn of Africa so far this year than in the whole of 2005, while piracy in South East Asia has become a rarity.

The 2009 map also shows how much more efficient South East Asian pirates are than their brethren in the western Indian Ocean. All the raids there this year have resulted in capture of a vessel, whereas in Somalia, attempted attacks far outnumber actual attacks. Perhaps as they become more practised, the Somalis too will become more effective, enabling them to some extent to counter the increasingly forceful response by the West.

IMB Live Piracy Map 2009: red = actual attack, yellow = attempted attack

IMB Live Piracy Map 2009: red = actual attack, yellow = attempted attack



Firing the first shot

April 14, 2009 | by Mark Weston | More on Africa, Conflict and security | One comment

The piracy saga in the Indian Ocean has taken a nasty turn, as France’s new Napoleon, Nicolas Sarkozy, has decided capital punishment is the best way of dealing with Somali bandits in the region. French commandos shot dead two pirates as they attempted to rescue a young French yachtsman and his family. It looks likely that they also killed the yachtsman. Then, on Sunday, the US killed a further three pirates as they successfully rescued a captured ship’s captain.

Until now, the pirates have treated their hostages fairly well – possibly because ransoms have usually been paid – but if they decide to fight fire with fire their activities could become more violent. Indeed, hardline Islamists in Somalia have already vowed revenge for the killings, and another pirate who’s holding some Greek captives (over 230 hostages are being held by various pirates) warned:

Every country will be treated the way it treats us. In the future, America will be the one mourning and crying. We will retaliate [for] the killings of our men.



After McBride: “The election is lost”

April 12, 2009 | by David Steven | More on What we're watching | No comments

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Death by blog

April 11, 2009 | by Jules Evans | More on Influence and networks | No comments

The blogosphere can be fairly brutal. This weekend, it is busy consuming the political careers of two New Labour apparatchiks – Derek Draper, who runs the Labour website LabourList, and Damian McBride, a special advisor in Number 10.

In January, Draper set up LabourList, which calls itself ‘Labour’s biggest independent grassroots e-network’. It was designed to counter the popularity of Tory networks like Conservativehome and bloggers like Iain Dale and Guido Fawkes.

It was part of a Labour drive to harness the power of the net, as Obama’s campaign did last year. As John Prescott put it in comments posted by LabourList on YouTube: “whatever Iain Dale and them are saying, Derek Draper has put up a good network for the Labour Party, ‘LabourListens’ [sic], and we want as many communications as we can get. Iain Dale, Gui Fawkes [sic] – look out baby, coz we’re taking over!’

The Tory blogosphere mocked LabourList for its claim to independence, and suggested it was just a vehicle for the Labour party line.

Meanwhile, Draper was in discussions to set up yet another Labour website, called Red Rag.

The website was registered on November 4 2008, the same day that Draper met with Tim Allan (Alastair Campbell’s former deputy), Benjamin Wegg-Prosser (Peter Mandelson’s former special advisor) and David Prescott in Labour HQ, to discuss “how to take the fight to right-of-centre bloggers”.

Draper says on LabourList:

“I’ve wondered for ages why the right wing have a near monopoly on websites that feature tittle tattle and teasing of their political opponents. But I felt strongly that such gossip wasn´t suitable for LabourList and kicked around the idea of setting up another blog, Red Rag, where such stories might be published.”

The site was registered as being owned by ‘Ollie Cromwell’, which suggests it was intended to be an anonymous site (unlike LabourList) disseminating smears fed by Number 10 and other sources.

As part of this Red Rag project, McBride sent Draper emails in January, from Number 10, with a lot of lurid gossip about the sex lives of front bench Tories, particularly David Cameron and George Osborne, and their wives.

Oops. The emails then found their way to a Tory blogger, Guido Fawkes, and have also been offered to several newspapers. Apparently pages 1 to 3 of the Sunday Times tomorrow will be about the story, including the contents of the emails.

(more…)



The revenge of Levi Johnston

April 11, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on North America | One comment

Come on, admit it.  Sure, it’s nice to have Barack Obama as President.  But you’ve felt something missing in your life ever since we lost the daily spectacle of watching the Sarah Palin political machine attempting to manage the story that her unmarried, school-age daughter Bristol was pregnant – despite what was obviously the inherent unmanageability of the father, Levi Johnston.

So on the one hand, we were treated to photos of the happy couple (with Levi sporting a blazer, a tie and a snappy haircut), and the news that they would be getting married; on the other hand, the exquisite revelation on Levi’s MySpace page that,

I’m a fuckin’ redneck who likes to snowboard and ride dirt bikes. But I live to play hockey. I like to go camping and hang out with the boys, do some fishing, shoot some shit and just fuckin’ chillin’ I guess. Ya fuck with me I’ll kick ass.

And then Obama won and – suddenly, we were bereft.

Until now! For Levi has now declared all out war on Sarah Palin family (since you ask, no, he is no longer getting married to Bristol), by appearing on the Tyra Banks Show and then The Early Show on CBS, in each case giving it to Sarah with both barrels. According to People,

One point of disagreement: Whether Johnston, 18, ever lived at the Palin’s home. “They said I didn’t live there,” he said. “[They say] I ‘stayed’ there. I was like, ‘Okay, whatever you want to call it’ – I had all my stuff there. So, if you wanna call it staying there, that’s fine.”  “So, they’re lying,” said anchor Maggie Rodriguez. “Yeah,” Johnston replied.

And Levi’s family mother Sherry and sister Mercede are getting stuck in, too.  As the latter observes,

“They’re lying, trying to save themselves when they’re the ones that asked for it. They brought him to the campaign. They should have known what was coming. They can’t turn around and try and take it back now.”

Hell yeah! How do you like them family values? He warned us he’d kick ass. But for me, the real hold-the-front-page bombshell here is the one set out in the Huffington Post:

Levi Johnston, ex-fiancee of famous teen mom Bristol Palin, admitted to Tyra Banks in an interview set to air Monday that the couple was not always practicing safe sex and says they shared a bedroom on occasion.

Steady on, HuffPo. Did you have your lawyers look this over before you went to press? 

As for Bristol, well, dignfied silence is the order of the day.  As a statement from Camp Palin notes:

“Bristol’s focus will remain on raising Tripp, completing her education, and advocating abstinence.”



Yeah, yeah, it’s off topic. Whatever. Elmo meets Gervais on Sesame Street

April 9, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on What we're watching | No comments

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‘Oh Dear’-ism

April 9, 2009 | by Jules Evans | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Conflict and security, Global system | No comments

The highlight of last night’s Newswipe – Charlie Brooker’s rather weak British answer to the Daily Show in the US - was a brief video by Adam Curtis, the maker of such brilliant documentaries as The Century of the Self and The Power of Nightmares.

Curtis, in a typically bold narrative, argued that the hippy counterculture had changed the way we see global events, leading us to see situations like the famine in Ethiopia or the Kosovo War through the simplistic hippy framework of innocent and heroic individuals versus corrupt political systems.

The global ‘solution’, in this hippy framework, is for direct aid that side-steps corrupt political frameworks - the Blue Peter aid project to Biafra in 1969 launched this, and Live Aid was the culmination of it.

But the simplistic vision broke down, he argued, during the Hutu / Tutsi wars of the 1990s – first the Tutsis were portrayed by the western media as the innocent heroes, but then the Tutsi massaces of Hutus, and the ensuing civil war, showed the story to be much more politically complex, with no obvious ‘goodies’ and ‘baddies’.

But the media can’t handle such complexity, so the result is we’re shown repeated images of evil and suffering, without any political framework in which to comprehend it. The end is ‘oh dearism’ – the attitude of a depressed hippy.

It really reminds me of the western world’s response (including my response at the time) to the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine: kids in tents and good-looking rebel politicians standing up to corrupt political leaders, what’s not to like?

Then the Orange leaders spend the next five years arguing and fighting, and the country descends into a major economic crisis. Oh dear.

It’s only about five minutes long, you can watch it below:

Adam Curtis on Newswipe



URBEINGRECORDED » Discontinuity & Opportunity in a Hyper-Connected World
Great discussion of complexity and network theory and its relevance to global risks, from Chris Arkenberg

The Emissions Gap Report
This publication aims to assess the following questions: are countries’ pledges of action collectively consistent with and, if implemented, likely to achieve the 2˚C and 1.5˚C temperature goals? If not, how big is the gap between emission levels consistent with these temperature goals and the emissions expected as a result of the pledges?

The Spectator runs false sea-level claims on its cover
These claims rely on misinterpretations of scientific data so grave that even an arts graduate such as Fraser Nelson should have been able to spot them.

Europe’s Insult Diplomacy - Infographic
British Prime Minister David Cameron called French President Nicolas Sarkozy “a hidden dwarf” as part of a joke told to a journalist. German Chancellor Angela Merkel referred to Sarkozy as “Mr. Bean,” while Sarkozy called her “La Boche,” or the Kraut. Spanish Prime Minister José Zapatero is “too pink” because of the high proportion of women in his cabinet, said Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. And Berlusconi’s opinion of the euro? “A disaster,” he said, that has “screwed everybody.”

Solar Power's Good News
The White House has challenged the solar industry to produce clean electricity at $1 per watt. It has also set a national goal to achieve 80 percent clean energy use by 2035…The good news is that researchers are racing toward that goal at an impressive rate.

BBC News - Viewpoint: Is the alcohol message all wrong?
"The effects of alcohol on behaviour are determined by cultural rules and norms, not by the chemical actions of ethanol."

Something's Happening Here - NYT - Tom Friedman
When you see spontaneous social protests erupting from Tunisia to Tel Aviv to Wall Street, it’s clear that something is happening globally that needs defining

Foreign Aid Set to Take Hit in U.S. Budget Crisis - NYTimes.com
America’s budget crisis at home is forcing the first significant cuts in overseas aid in nearly two decades

Israel - Adrift at Sea Alone - NYTimes.com
Tom Friedman bemoans "the most diplomatically inept and strategically incompetent government in Israel’s history"

Eurozone: A nightmare scenario - FT.com
How it could all go pear-shaped - your cut-out-and-keep flow chart guide

Sharp fall in poor countries' dependency on foreign aid says ActionAid report
Aid dependency among 54 of the world’s poorest countries has declined by a third over the last decade, according to a new report from ActionAid.

World environment programs in budget crosshairs | Reuters
Global conservation programs are prime targets for budget-cutting: they sit at the crossroads of two things Americans dislike spending money on, aid and environment.

Attack of the Superweed - BusinessWeek
widespread use of Roundup has led to the evolution of far-tougher-to-eradicate strains of weeds

Jon Stewart Says Rick Perry Is the Candidate Republicans Want, and Deserve
Laugh out loud funny

Global reach is the prize at Busan - Resources - Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
Jonathan Glennie and Andrew Rogerson on what you need to know ahead of the big aid effectiveness summit

When Bloggers Don’t Follow the Script, to ConAgra’s Chagrin - NYTimes.com
Ha ha ha - epic PR #fail

Obama backs down on tighter smog regulations | World news | The Guardian
In case you missed it. Yes we can...

Wikileaked cable: executions of children by US forces in Iraq
Wikileaked cable with harrowing reports of  US forces handcuffing and then killing 10 people - including children aged 5 years, 3 years and 5 months.

BBC News - Tests show fastest way to board passenger planes
The way airlines board planes turns out to be the least efficient

New sources of aid: Charity begins abroad | The Economist
"The establishment donors’ aid monopoly is finished."

Who Doomed Sarah Palin's Presidential Dream? | TPMDC
Where did it all go wrong for Sarah?

The Intergenerational Foundation
"We believe that each generation should pay its own way, which is not happening at present."

Should we have a land value tax? - MoneyWeek
Discussion of pros and cons for the UK, following an article by OECD's chief economist in Prospect

Toward a Post-2015 Development Paradigm | Centre for International Governance Innovation | Centre pour l'innovation dans la gouvernance internationale
12 new development goals are proposed to replace the MDGs from 2015 - the outcome of an IFRC / CIGI conference at Bellagio

China Gets (Needlessly) Defensive Over Famine in Africa - China Real Time Report - WSJ
Germany's Africa policy coordinator causes dispute by singling out Chinese landgrabs as a culprit in the Horn of Africa famine

Latin America: A toxic trade - FT.com
Must read broadside against probably the most stupid and avoidable public policy screw-up in recent memory: the war on drugs

The intellectual collapse of left and right - FT.com
Michael Lind on how the economic inclusion narratives of centre left and centre right are simultaneously imploding - must read

Julia Gillard back to rock-bottom: Newspoll | The Australian
Bad news for supporters of green taxes and decisive action on climate change

Oxfam’s looking for a new Head of Research
A plum role is up for grabs

The global crisis of institutional legitimacy | Felix Salmon
"Our hearts want government to come through and save the economy. But our heads know that it’s not going to happen."

UBS' George Magnus On Marxist Existential Crises And The "Convulsions Of A Political Economy" | ZeroHedge
Not every day you see investment banks publishing detailed analysis of Karl Marx

Food Prices Could Hit Tipping Point for Global Unrest | Wired Science | Wired.com
New quant research on thresholds over which high food prices cause riots

Ambassador Locke Picks Up His Own Coffee, Gains 'Hero' Status Among Chinese : The Two-Way : NPR
Some pictures of the brand new U.S. ambassador to China are causing quite a stir.

Jon Stewart | Ron Paul | Michele Bachmann | Mediaite
Jon Stewart breaks down the state of play on the Republican Presidential race

The Bucky-Gandhi Design Institution › When?
Some properly out of the box thinking from Vinay Gupta. Must-read.

England’s riots: If the UK were a fragile state… | Dan Smith's blog
By the head of a leading peacebuilding NGO

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder From 9/11 Still Haunts - NYTimes.com
At least 10,000 New Yorkers still have PTSD from 9/11

The unlikely social network fuelling the Tottenham riots « The Urban Mashup Blog
Not Twitter, not Facebook but.... Blackberry Messenger

Mapping world food price volatility | Nourishing the Planet
Clickable map of global food price hotspots

Will the 2012 Earth Summit be a flop? > From Poverty to Power
Great summary of the state of play on Rio 2012 from Oxfam's Sarah Best

Articles & Publications
Sustainable Development Goals – a useful outcome from Rio+20?

Recent months have seen increasing interest in the idea that Rio+20 could be the launch pad for a new set of ‘Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs).  But what would SDGs cover, what would a process to define and then implement them look like, and what would some of the key political challenges be? This short briefing [...]

Creating Consensus on a post-2015 framework for development

Any global framework for development which is agreed after 2015 will be a political deal between states. This paper looks at recent trends in policy and politics in emerging economies and traditional donors to assess where a consenus might lie. It suggests some principles for a post-2015 agreement which emerge from recent policy developments

A post-2015 Global Development Agreement: why, who what?

Paper from ODI and UNDP, authored by Claire Melamed and Andy Sumner, summarising the evidence on the impact of the MDGs, and looking at current trends in poverty and in global governance that will affect the shape and the scope of any future agreement on global development.

Resource Scarcity, Fair Shares and Development

Why resource scarcity will be a game changer for global justice agendas, and what aid donors, NGOs and other development opinion formers need to do about it. WWF / Oxfam report by Alex Evans.

Making Rio 2012 Work: Setting the stage for global economic, social and ecological renewal

The Rio 2012 sustainable development summit is at risk of being the latest in a long line of damp squibs on environmental multilateralism – but could still make real progress, if it focuses on greening growth and building resilience to shocks and stresses, and above all faces up to the issues of fair shares that arise in a world of limits.

Governance for a Resilient Food System

How national and international governance systems need to be reconfigured to meet the challenges of food security in a world of tighter supply and demand balances and increasing volatility. Report for Oxfam’s new Grow campaign by Alex Evans. (May 2011)

Running out of everything: how scarcity drives crisis in Pakistan

Article on scarcity of resources in Pakistan and what it means for the country.

Economics for a world with limits

Text of speech by Alex Evans to Institute for New Economic Thinking annual conference at Bretton Woods; the YouTube video is here. (April 2011) Download Speech

Unscrambling the price spike

Article published on China Dialogue on reasons for the new food price spike, including potential implications of the current drought in China. (February 2011) Download Article

2020 Development Futures

Eight critical uncertainties for development over the next decade, and ten recommendations for what ActionAid – who commissioned this report – should do to prepare for them

American Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Article published in World Politics Review on current American foreign policy

The World in 2020 – Geopolitical and Trends Analysis

Report asking how organisations can prosper in what will be a turbulent period for world order

Globalization and Scarcity

Center on International Cooperation report on what forms of multilateral cooperation are needed to manage scarcity of resources

Resource Scarcity, Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict

Background paper on whether resource scarcity and climate change will cause increased violent conflict

Organizing for Influence: UK Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Chatham House report on how the UK’s new coalition government should upgrade and reform the way Britain conducts foreign policy

The Long Crisis Seminar

Introductory remarks by David Steven at a Brookings Institution seminar on risk and resilience in the global system (March 2010)

Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008). Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Looking Forward: how do we build resilience?

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).

Shooting the Rapids: multilateralism and global risks

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, commissioned by Gordon Brown and presented to heads of state at the Progressive Governance Summit (April 2008).

Beyond a Zero-Sum Game on Climate Change

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven, as part of the British Council’s Transatlantic Network 2020 book ‘Talking Trans-Atlantic’ (March 2008).

From Bali to Copenhagen: towards an endgame for global climate policy?

Article by Alex Evans for the Environmental Policy & Law Journal (January 2008).

Climate Change: The State of the Debate

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the London Accord (December 2007).

The Post-Kyoto Bidding War: bringing developing countries into the fold

New paper by Alex Evans on climate policy after 2012 from the Center on International Cooperation (October 2007).

Alternative CSR: the Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Chapter on the FCO from Manchester University Press’s Alternative Comprehensive Spending Review, by David Steven (September 2007).

Fixing the UK’s Foreign Policy Apparatus: A Memo to Gordon Brown

Note by Alex Evans and David Steven about how to restructure the UK’s foreign policy system in order to manage trans-boundary global risks better (April 2007).

Evaluation and the New Public Diplomacy

Talk given by David Steven at the Wilton Park conference: The Future of Public Diplomacy. Focuses on strategies to drive public diplomacy to the heart of the foreign policy armoury (March 2007).

Articles and Publications

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Gabrielle Giffords to step down | 2 Comments

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Oh to be in the president of Turkmenistan’s entourage… | 1 Comment

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David Carr And Danah Boyd Share Insights | Comments Off

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Edgar Mitchell on the Overview Effect | 1 Comment

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Presidential debate fail | 2 Comments

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Key Posts
Cheap food: bad. Expensive food: terrible. Why the FAO’s glass is always empty8

It’s interesting to look back a few years – to when the world was worried that food was too cheap, not too expensive. In 2004, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization looked back on a long bear market for food: forty years in which real prices of agricultural commodities had fallen 2% per year, or [...]

How many people are hungry?3

The good news: poverty is in retreat. The bad news: hunger isn’t.  That’s the headline finding for the first Millennium Development Goal , which aims to halve the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day and the proportion of people living in hunger between 1990 and 2015. Great strides have been made [...]

“Freeing the entire human race from want”2

The MDGs are so over Having just been rude about one World Bank report, here’s a positive review of another – the Global Monitoring Report 2011, which the Bank produces jointly with the IMF. The GMR updates progress against the Millennium Development Goals – targets that were set as the culmination of a push throughout [...]

21 years ahead of its time5

A 1989 article on ‘the global teenager’ in Whole Earth Review was way ahead of its time in identifying the crux of what today’s youth bulge means for global change

Is it time for Sustainable Development Goals?4

The pros and cons of a new global set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and how they might work in practice

The one book you must read over the summer9

Mark Lynas’s new book The God Species is a must-read for environmentalists

Fair shares in a world of limits: the new front line for development-

Thoughts after from a joint WWF / Oxfam seminar on resource scarcity, fair shares and development.

What the ‘powershift’ narrative overlooks on US-China relations-

The ‘powershift’ narrative about US-China relations obscures how much they have in common: unsustainable growth paths, shaky financial sectors, political sclerosis, massive inequality, reliance on imported resources and above all their status as the two principal obstacles to collective action on shared global risks.