From Ralph Nader – yes Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate and the man who, in 2000, running to the left of Gore, did most to get Bush elected:
To put it very simply, he is our first African American president or he will be. And we wish him well. But his choice is, basically, whether he’s going to be Uncle Sam for the people of this country, or Uncle Tom for the big corporations.
Yes really.
Watch Nader – who ran again this time and got 4 or 5 votes – destroy the last shreds of his credibility here. The Fox News presenter he’s talking to is too flabbergasted to really know what to say…
How many malaria cases does Nigeria have every year? And how many deaths? You would think the obvious place to find out would be the World Health Organisation’s website, which has a whole section dedicated to the Roll Back Malaria Program. What you are met with when you get there, however, is a blizzard of different numbers. The Nigeria Country Profile in the 2005 World Malaria Report says there were 2.6 million reported malaria cases in 2003, a similar figure to the previous three years (in a country where malaria is endemic you’d expect incidence to remain roughly similar year on year). Sounds OK so far then. Despite nearly half of those infected being aged under 5, however (and therefore, you would think, weak and at high risk of death from such a dangerous disease), there were only 5,343 reported malaria deaths in 2003.
Perhaps Nigerian children are unusually robust, and therefore better equipped than kids in other countries to fend off a disease that (reportedly) kills hundreds of thousands of their peers each year worldwide. Alas, probably not, or at least not according to data posted elsewhere on the WHO site. The “country info” on Nigeria claims that there were 5.3 million reported malaria cases in Nigeria in 2007 – double the number four years earlier, and 10,000 reported deaths. OK, maybe an extra battalion or two of foreign mosquitoes has been called in by their fully sated Nigerian cousins to join in the bloodfest, or maybe reporting has improved or become more sensitive (not the same thing) over the past four years.
But then, on the same page, we are told that malaria accounts for “approximately 300,000 annual deaths.” So not the 10,000 “reported” deaths a few inches down the page, nor the 5,000 reported in the country profile, but 300,000. You might think the difference lies in the low figures being “reported” and the high ones extrapolated, but on closer inspection, the 5.2m cases in 2007 are described as “probable and confirmed”, and the 2.6m in 2003 “probable or clinically diagnosed.” Can’t tell the difference? Nor me.
Even if it is extrapolated, WHO has guessed that 10,000 reported deaths means 300,000 actual deaths – a thirtyfold difference. But if you do the same multiplication for the number of cases, you’d get 159 million cases – more than one bout of malaria per Nigerian per year, and nearly 50 million more even than the government (which is seeking aid to fight the disease so has an interest in inflating the numbers) claims on the World Bank website. It’s also almost triple the estimate of annual malaria cases in – wait for it – WHO’s latest country profile, released in 2008, which puts the number of cases at 57m and the number of deaths at, er, 225,000.
After all this, needless to say, I am no nearer to answering my two initial questions.
Update: It’s not just on malaria that the data are shaky, of course. David railed at even worse incompetence by UNAIDS a year ago.
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world – our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand.
To those who would tear this world down – we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security – we support you.
And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright – tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.
For that is the true genius of America – that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
Update: I can’t find embeddable video of today’s victory speech, but here’s the BBC version. Contrast though with Obama’s speech after he stormed to victory in the Iowa caucuses back in January:
You see how immediately how Obama has withdrawn into himself, become more dignified, more Presidential – after Iowa he was looser, happier, free of that foreboding he must feel now that the USA (and the mess it’s in) is his responsibility.
It reminds me of the famous picture of Cherie hugging Blair as they arrived in Downing Street the morning after Labour’s 1997 victory – where she has that poignant ‘oh shit – what have we done?’ look on her face:
Update II: Sad to see McCain having to quiet the boos (for Obama) as he conceded the race, though the crowd did get more gracious as the speech went on. As I have argued, this is probably one of those elections where the loser is driven into a temporary period of insanity by its defeat.
Rather ominous, then, that the only full-throated cheer of the night was for (a slightly tearful) Sarah Palin, who McCain described as: “one of the most impressive campaigners I have ever seen and an impressive new voice in our party for reform, and for the principles that have always been our greatest strength.”
Thought the body language between the two was pretty chilly, though. And remember this vicious quote from a few days ago, from an unnamed McCain adviser:
She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.
Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.
Update III: Have to say, I’m feeling pretty happy about my prediction of a 5% victory in the popular vote, which I made not long after Iowa and have stuck to steadfastly ever since. Have also been irritating people by saying that Obama is already a two-term President – time will tell on that one.
Update V: Surprising factoid of the night – via Kos:
Something to look at in the next couple of days — turnout sucked. Not all ballots are in, but we’re currently at almost 119M for the night. We had 122M vote in 2004. So we may get to 2004 levels. A quick spot check confirmed numbers down in many states (e.g. CA, NY, OH, etc). Could it be Republicans staying home? A look at the exit polls will be on my agenda tomorrow.
More than 130 million people turned out to vote Tuesday, the most ever to vote in a presidential election.
With ballots still being counted in some precincts into Wednesday morning, an estimated 64 percent of the electorate turned out, making 2008 the highest percentage turnout in generations.
In 2004, 122.3 million voted in what was then the highest recorded turnout in the contest between President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry.
Previously red states targeted by the Barack Obama campaign demonstrated remarkable turnout, setting records in North Carolina and elsewhere. Increased turnout was also reported in states including Virginia and Indiana.
Update VI – Here’s an eye watering statistic. The election cost $4.2bn ($5.3bn if you include the congressional and senate races). 120-130m Americans voted. So that’s nearly $35 spent for every vote cast.
Update VII – From the department of sore losers, the batshit crazy Debbie Schlussel:
With Black Panthers ruling the polling places and idiocy ruling the minds, America is now unstable. This election will instantly change our lives . . . for the worse. And dummies and the mob mentality are dominating voting booths across America. Our country is now unstable like those of Europe. The numbers of Muslim aliens and U.S.-born Muslims will eventually mirror those of Europe. We’re just a decade or so behind.
Congrats, America. We’re the new Europe.
(No deodorant, lack of showers, and women without shaved pits and legs can’t be far behind . . . along with the Islamic wildings and mobs. I can already smell it. And it’s malodorous.)
Just watched Wonder Boy’s speech. Hmph. “Callused hands?” When did he ever have callused hands?
All right, I’m sour. The most liberal member of the U.S. Senate! And that shakedown-artist of a wife, with the permanent frown! And Joe Biden! …
I’m sour about the GOP too. What did it all get us, those 8 years of pandering and spending? If GWB had turned his face against new entitlements, closed the borders, deported the illegals, held the line on calls to loosen mortgage-lending standards, starved the Department of Education, and declined those invitations to mosque functions, would the GOP be in any worse shape now?
What won this election was the packaging skills of David Axelrod, the swooning complicity of the media, the ruthless opportunism of Barack Obama, and the unprincipled thuggishness of his supporters.
Before McCain took the stage, Nathaniel Eyler, 29, of Phoenix, mouthed the words as the song “God Bless the USA” played.
“Scared,” he said in response to how he felt about the outcome, calling Obama a “socialist.”
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it. I’m scared. Just the idea of Barack Obama as president of the United States scares me. It does not embody the idealism I grew up with and am passionate about. We’re Americans. We’re resilient. We’ll bounce back. Our government’s idiot-proof. There’s nothing he can do that we can’t fix in the end.”
Still, he said, “We’re going to be taking steps backwards.”
