by Jules Evans | Aug 9, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia
One of the interesting questions in the Georgia – Ossetia – Russia conflict is who is calling the shots.
On the Ossetian and Russian side, is Dmitry Medvedev, the young president who many think is the puppet of Putin, calling the shots? It’s interesting to contrast the rhetoric of Putin and Medvedev in the last few days. Medvedev has been quoted as saying: ‘”Under the Constitution and the Federal law … I must protect the life and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are”.
That’s a Westernized lawyer speaking, almost as if apologizing to the West. ‘Look, I don’t really want to send in the tanks, but you understand, I must, it’s in the constitution.’
I wonder if Medvedev had any say on the movement of Russian armed forces at all. I think Putin would have called the shots on this one. He’s seemed much more up for a confrontation in his comments, saying ‘Of course there will be consequences’ when Georgia invaded Ossetia.
But Putin was quoted yesterday as saying: “There are lots of volunteers being gathered in the region, and it’s very hard to withhold them from taking part. A real war is going on.” This sounds a bit like Lebanon talking about Hezbollah, or the PLO talking about Hamas. ‘We’d like to call a ceasefire, but you know, these volunteers, it’s out of our hands.’
Meanwhile, who’s in charge in Georgia? Mikhail Saakashvili’s chief press spokesman in Tblisi is an American government official. The city is crawling with CIA spooks. You can’t get into a lift in the Radisson without seeing some yank with a crew-cut and shiny black shoes. Did the Georgians tell the Americans what they planned to do? Did the Americans agree? Or are they being pulled into a stand-off with Russia against their will?
This is the weird thing with proxy wars, it’s hard to define who is in control of what. But be assured that Russia will see America’s hand behind Georgia’s actions, even if Saakashvili has been operating more autonomously. This is not just a stand-off between Georgia and Ossetia. It’s a stand-off between Russia and the US, over the borders of NATO.
by Daniel Korski | Aug 9, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia
Following the Georgian War from the Tel Aviv beaches lends a different perspective. The $ 22 million in military exports from Israel to Georgia belie a much deeper security relationship. Numerous ex-IDF generals provide military advice to the Tblisi government while Israeli hardware – especially pilotless drone aircraft- has been shipped by the plane loads.
But the link is also philosophical – both countries seem themselves as to “outposts” in hostile neighbourhoods. When a colleague of mine asked President Mikheil Saakashvili who his political heroes were, he mentioned De Gaulle, Ataturk and David Ben Gurion, Israel’s founder. An Israeli delegation recently visiting Tblisi was told by the Georgian president : “When Israel is harmed, Georgia is harmed as well,” and he later swore: “The only place in the world where I feel at home is Israel.”
Recently, the Israeli press claimed the outgoing government of Ehud Olmert had decided to halt sales of military equipment to Georgia because of objections from Russia and to give Israel leverage with Moscow in its attempts to persuade Russia not to ship arms and equipment to Iran. But these reports have been denied by the Georgian government, as well as Israeli diplomats.
With the Israel-Georgian links tight, any reader will doubtlessly ask whether Georgia will now take the role of Israel in the Second Lebanese War or that of Hezbollah? That is, will Georgian forces undermine Russia’s conventional army and air superiority with Hezbollah-style attacks, using a sophisticated blend of conventional and asymmetric tactics; or will they try to take on the much larger Russian force in a conventional attack?
To thicken the plot, the Israeli company said to be providing advice to the Tblisi government is one Defensive Shield, owned by General Gal Hirsh, the former commander of the 91st division of IDF’s Northern military command and one of the first general officers to retire before the Vinograd commission reported on Israel’s failures during the Second Lebanese War.
Whilst this is early days, it looks like Georgia has chosen to fight like the IDF rather than Hezbollah. Russian tanks were able to roll towards the capital of South Ossetia without road-side bombs etc. and the clashes have until now looked conventional – thus giving Russia the advantage.
But at the same time, Moscow also looks like it is trying to fight like the IDF, with reports that Russian fighters bombed non-military targets, including the Black Sea port of Poti. This will not help Moscow win any international PR competition (for a crude Russian attempt, see here) and may drive the Tblisi government to contemplate unconventional tactics. Perhaps time to send for Sheikh Nasrallah’s men for a few military tips on the next phase of the war…
