MoD 2.0: An ‘open mind’ not a ’safe pair of hands’ is needed Charlie Edwards
July 25, 2008 | More on UK | 2 comments
I’ve just given a talk to 120 + senior officers at the Australian Command and Staff College on national security. My talk was deliberately aimed at the strategic level and focused on three interrelated areas: the new geography of risk, the connecting the dots concept, and the system vulnerabilities associated with strategic myopia.
The Australian and British defence establishments face many similar issues but one in particular shines out: the lack of a strategic capability in the system, in the sense that the connections between the tactical and operational levels are often separate to, and removed from, the strategic decision making cycle (hence the failings of the current defence planning assumptions). This, I realise, is hardly new and experts more qualified than I have talked at length about the sub-strategic behaviour that characterises much of UK Defence. But as I made clear in my talk this morning this is not a criticism of an individual. It is a recognition that the system is broke.
However a window of opportunity is about to present itself (possibly). Plans are afoot to recruit a new Director of Strategy at the MoD this autumn. There is a slim possibility that Des Browne may be moved in a summer reshuffle. Both these ‘opportunities’ must be set against the background of cuts in the defence budget – something like £5 Billion over the next three years. Taken together all three things offer the MoD a real opportunity to refocus, rearm (metaphorically) and redeploy.
But this will require a new Minister to have an ‘open mind’. The very worst thing that could happen is for Gordon Brown to chose a ’safe pair of hands’. Given current circumstances this may sound counter-intuitive, but bear with me. There is probably 22 months or so before a General Election. Short-termism and political expediency dictates an experienced operator should ‘hold the fort’ for the remaining period but given the current political, operational and military climate that would be suicide – lots of things need to change now not post 2010.
The MoD has long been considered a political backwater for aspiring politicians, by Labour MPs especially. Education, health and latterly development have been the portfolios of choice. But the MoD is crying out for change – a (youngish) Minister with an open mind is the best bet for the future of UK Defence, not a tired ’safe pair of hands’ riding out his last term in office.
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I don’t think it’s fair to call John Reid a safe pair of hands. Britain is facing the very real possibility of defeat in Afghanistan. Strategising about the future is very important, but let’s make sure we win the fight we are in too. That requires a hard-hitting Defence Secretary who can pull the rest of Whitehall with him.
Dr. Reid at least made a go at this when he was asked by Tony Blair to lead the Afghan effort. If not Reid, then I have another proposal – Peter Mandelson.
Yes, you heard me. Elevate the EU Commissioner to the Lords and appont him Defence Secretary. He was widely seen as being the best Trade and Northern Ireland Secretary in the Blair years. He is a good manager, master of spin and is about to leave the Commission. Of course the PM and Mr Mandelson would have to kiss and make up, but hopefully they can put the country’s interest first.
I think you may have missed my point Daniel. Looking to the future is one strand of the MoD’s strategic capability. Strategic capability is the ability of the system to make the connections between the tactical and operational and strategic levels. It requires sound communication skills both in theatres of operations and in ‘Main Building’. I am not as pessimistic as you re – Afghanistan, that the situation is pretty critical – we need to move towards stabilising the patient(s). John Reid is patently not the man for the job (politically and organisationally).