It was nice to meet you in Tokyo and I’m pleased to see that my presentation got a rise out of you. I took a hard look at the same report you cite a few months ago. You can find it here: http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2008/03/it_has_become_an_article.shtml

I must say that your analysis above really doesn’t refute the primary point I made in my talk and that is documented in the post I’ve linked to above, namely that EU 15 emissions, once one discounts UK and German emissions, which declined for reasons entirely exogenous to Kyoto, have increased 12% since 1990. That is roughly comparable to the U.S. increase over the same time period. The decline in emissions of new EU members, like the decline of German emissions, is almost entirely attributable to the collapse of eastern bloc economies in the post-communist era.

Now you may wish to argue that EU emissions would have risen faster were it not for Kyoto, or that prospective EU policies will quickly reverse the increase in emissions among EU 15 members excluding the UK and Germany. But it seems to me that unless you are prepared to argue that Kyoto had something to do with Margaret Thatcher’s politically motivated dismantling of the coal industry in the 1980′s and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, you ought to concede the point that Kyoto, and Kyoto motivated policies have, to date, failed to reduce EU emissions. And given the current coal generation boom on the continent, you might reconsider your confidence that the projections for future reductions are likely to come to pass.

best

ted