by Alex Evans | Jun 22, 2008 | Influence and networks, UK
An interesting signal in the ether today from Sky News’s political editor Adam Boulton, who has this to say:
It could be said that Tony Blair’s domestic achievements were overshadowed by international misadventures. It may be said that Gordon Brown’s premiership is working in reverse.
For all the travails at home, GB is beginning to cut a substantial (if unshowy) figure on the world stage. He may tour the world in aircraft more suited to rock-star has-beens than international statesman, but supported by a strong foreign affairs team, GB is developing a credible foreign policy.
Despite a wobbly start with the Americans, relations with the White House are back on track. The PM has taken an admirable lead on Zimbabwe and was the lead voice at last weeks EU crisis summit in Brussels. The sceptics are having a field day with the PM’s Jeddah proposals, but he’s taken a risk by being the only head of government to travel here and the ideas put forward are interesting, if untested.
Blair (and Thatcher for that matter) retained a unstinting belief in the UK’s place in the world. I’d argue that Brown is more realistic and, possibly, constructive.
Boulton’s line is worth noting, given that it’s at odds with the prevailing view among the commentariat (c.f. Jonathan Freedland’s verdict earlier this week – “A year in, it’s clear: we got Brown wrong. He is simply not up to the job”).
Still more interesting is the fact that it’s foreign policy that Boulton sees as Brown’s strong suit. In the early days of Brown’s tenure as PM, the general assumption was that Brown was far less interested in matters international than his predecessor (international development being the one exception); for many, his early unwillingness to go to Brussels seemed to confirm the fact.
But Boulton may well be right that things are changing. Brown did indeed show deftness with Bush and Brussels alike last week (notwithstanding an unlucky hat-trick of comms mess-ups: see here, here and here). The PIPA global polling data on trust in world leaders puts him in second place behind Ban Ki-moon. And on top of that, there’s been a definite pick-up of momentum within Whitehall on the PM’s foreign policy agenda, especially on reforming international institutions and on food, energy and climate change. A lot of serious thinking is underway – both on the content of the agenda, and ways to deliver it – and departments seem to be pulling together more than usual.
As David and I noted last year (and I recalled in a post earlier this week), leaders can become statesmen quickly during a period of flux in international affairs like the current global interregnum. It may be too soon to talk about tides turning just yet – but Brown is asking the right questions on the most fundamental global issues, and putting real resources behind the process.
by Daniel Korski | Jun 22, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia
The Pro-European Serb President, Boris Tadic announced yesterday that talks to form a governing coalition with the Socialist Party would begin.
Several weeks after its election, Serbia’s still has no government. The parliamentary elections in early May saw moderate pro-European parties win a razor-thin majority in Serbia’s parliament. But for weeks it looked as if the current Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, would cobble together an anti-EU, nationalist coalition with the Radical party.
With yesterday’s announcement, it looks as if a coalition by President Tadic’s party (DS) and the late Slobodan Milosevic’s party, the Socialists (SP), will be formed in a matter of days. Recent weeks have witnessed behind-the-scenes horse-trading about government jobs with the Socialists and other minority parties. The Socialists have been demanding control of key ministries like the Ministry of Interior, which is one of the most powerful portfolios in the Serbian government.
In turn, prime ministerial candidates all come from the President’s party with Mirko Cvetkovi?, the current Finance Minister, high on the list. All eyes will also be on United Serbia (JS) leader Dragan Markovi? Palma, the mayor of Jagodina, who famously wanted to invite Mozart and Bethoven to perform in his city. A Richard Armitage-look-a-like, Dragan Palma is expected to become a government minister.
What happens in Serbia matters. The Balkans are still fragile and Belgrade can play an important role both for good and for bad. A new government is likely to continue a hard-line stance on Kosovo, but will improve Serbia’s relationship with the EU. The Stabilistation and Association Agreement – the first real step towards EU integration – is likely to be ratified by the new parliament and after a two year hiatus the legislature may actually begin passing much-needed laws.
But how long the stability will last nobody knows. The government’s majority will be wafer-thin and on many issues the two coalition partners – DS and the Socialists –sport not only different policies, but different worldviews. Will they have the appetite to arrest Ratko Mladic – one of the world’s leading war criminals – tackle the country’s deep-seated corruption, and counter the isolationist, anti-Western sentiment most Serbs – even young people – now hold?
Kosovo will not go away either and the EU will continue to press for its rule-of-law mission, EULEX, to be allowed into the Serb-dominated northern part of the newly-independent country. Most Serbs know in their hearts of hearts that Kosovo is and will remain independent. But they still hope the northern part, where most Serbs live, can join Serbia. Either way, it is taboo in Serbian politics to admit that Kosovo is no longer part of Serbia proper whatever the Belgrade government says or does.
Pro-European government made up of the President’s party and the Socialists is an good thing. But many challenges still remain for a country that could be the region’s linchpin.
by Alex Evans | Jun 22, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, North America
From Reuters via John Robb:
U.S. motorists are risking rampant drug violence in Mexico to drive over the border and fill their tanks with cheap Mexican fuel, some even coming to blows over gas shortages and long queues.
The gap between Mexico’s subsidized gasoline and record U.S. prices has made it well worth making the trip, and U.S. drivers are even shrugging off the dangers of Mexico’s drug war which sees almost daily shootings in border towns.
Some say they can save up to $100 a month by filling up every two weeks in Mexico. The extra demand is causing shortages at hundreds of Mexico’s border gas stations, some of which are starting to ration fuel.
“It’s worth taking the risk even with the violence,” said a retired California engineer named Terry, who declined to give his surname, as he filled his red Ford pick-up truck in Tijuana, over the border from San Diego. “I know they could kill me or kidnap me, but the cost of filling my tank in the United States is just too much,” he said.
(See this post from 10 days ago for background and links on current violence in Mexico.)
