by Alex Evans | Mar 17, 2008 | Europe and Central Asia, Global system
…as the eurozone overtakes the United States of America.
FRANKFURT (AFP) — The dollar’s plunge has made the eurozone the world’s biggest economy by one measure and has underscored shifts that are reorienting the 15-nation bloc towards Asia, Russia and oil-rich Gulf states, analysts say.
“With the euro now trading around 1.56 against the dollar, the size of its annual output (at market value) has exceeded that of the United States,” US investment bank Goldman Sachs estimated last week.
by Alex Evans | Mar 17, 2008 | South Asia
The Economist’s James Miles is the only foreign correspondent with official approval to be in Tibet. More photos here.
Security is particularly intense in the Tibetan quarter itself. Helmeted riot police are posted every few metres along its narrow, winding alleyways. Residents are subjected to identity checks as they walk around. In the heart of the district, in front of the Jokhang temple, which is Tibet’s holiest shrine, two armoured personnel carriers are parked. On the front of one big red Chinese characters read: “Stability is Happiness”. On the other it says “Separatism is Disastrous.”
Meanwhile, Tim Johnson – and everyone else – is at the border:
This is an interesting time to be a foreign correspondent in China. Like dozens of colleagues, I am near the border with Tibet but unable to get in. I happen to be in Sichuan province. And I’ve been in contact with colleagues who I know are in Gansu and Qinghai provinces, all trying to get a feel for what’s going on among ethnic Tibetans. It is not easy. We are face some measure of difficulty, trying to outsmart Chinese provincial authorities who would just as soon muzzle the foreign press at times like this. None of us can enter Tibet, which is off limits to foreign reporters without a permit. I know of only one foreign journalist, James Miles of The Economist, who had the good fortune to be in Lhasa as events unfolded over the past few days …
We foreign reporters all take precautions. We have to switch vehicles often. Some of us swap out SIM cards in our mobile phones, or just turn them off. That way, authorities cannot triangulate mobile phone signals and figure out our locations.
A blogger called Kadfly – who’s backpacking around China – is on the ground in Tibet too. His take:
Yes, the Chinese government bears a huge amount of blame for this situation. But the protests yesterday were NOT peaceful. The original protests from the past few days may have been, but all of the eyewitnesses in this room agree the protesters yesterday went from attacking Chinese police to attacking innocent people very, very quickly. They appeared to target Muslim and Han Chinese individuals and businesses first but many Tibetans were also caught in the crossfire.
Here’s his friend Ben’s photo of the Potala Palace by the light of rioters’ fires:
by Charlie Edwards | Mar 17, 2008 | Middle East and North Africa
The Israeli secret service has launched a blog written by four of its agents. According to the BBC the agents discuss how they were recruited, and what sort of work they perform; they also answer questions sent in by members of the public. The blog is part of a recruitment drive with one agent claiming that the service ‘offered her a better work-life balance than her previous job in the private sector.’
Sadly for wannabe spies the agents also debunk a myriad of myths. They don’t work in a basement or spend the day wearing earpieces and don’t get to have flashing blue lights for their cars but have to sit in traffic jams like everyone else.
Not very exciting is it?
by Alex Evans | Mar 17, 2008 | Climate and resource scarcity, Global system
As you watch the ongoing tailspin in the dollar’s value and ponder to yourself whether Ben Bernanke is really going to reduce interest rates by a whole percentage point tomorrow, spare a thought for those poor countries – like Ukraine, China and Saudi Arabia – whose currencies are pegged to the dollar. Inflation in all of them is going through the roof as it is, thanks to food, energy and other commodities.
Here’s Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research:
In emerging economies, core inflation for most people is mostly determined by the prices of food and energy. In these countries, central bankers (who aren’t as politically independent as their counterparts in advanced economies) are reluctant to tighten monetary policy too aggressively to fight inflation because this might trigger a recession, which could be politically destabilising.
So they are increasingly letting their currencies appreciate as their primary anti-inflation policy. This means they are increasingly less willing to prop up the dollar, which then pushes up the key commodity prices that are causing their inflation problem.
David Bowers of Absolute Strategy Research puts it like this: “By failing to recognise the external dimension to the credit crunch, the Fed could introduce a new source of instability.”
by Charlie Edwards | Mar 17, 2008 | Conflict and security, UK
This Wednesday the British Government will publish the UK’s first ever National Security Strategy. This is a big moment for Gordon Brown and comes with great expectations. Don’t be surprised if there is no Minister on the Today Programme discussing the strategy’s pros and cons on Wednesday morning – this will be Gordon Brown’s opportunity to kill lots of birds with one mighty strategic stone (so lets hope he does wait and announce it in Parliament).
Dignity and gravitas will ooze from every pore of the front bench as Brown steps up to the dispatch box and announces the strategy. MPs from all sides of the House will nod and mouth their agreement. In the gallery sketch writers will pen columns for Thursday’s newspapers about how important Parliament is. For a brief moment the Government will look in complete control of its destiny – polls will even show the Labour party jump ahead of the Conservatives.
Some British newspapers are already trailing the announcement. The Telegraph suggests that ‘a national security council will be created, staffed by senior politicians including, potentially, individuals from other parties, intelligence and military chiefs, and scientific experts.. and that Paddy Ashdown has been suggested as a possible leading opposition figure with the experience to be invited to serve alongside senior Government ministers’. The Guardian points to the fact that ‘officials were divided about how broad they should paint the security threats facing Britain, and whether they should include such issues as social cohesion, for example,’ while The Times believes that a ‘group of veteran specialists will advise Gordon Brown on all aspects of national security, ranging from terrorist strikes to pandemics’. Finally the Financial Times writes that Sir Paul McCartney has been ordered to pay his estranged wife Heather Mills £24.3m.
Below are some thoughts ahead of the publication of the UK NSS.
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