Global Dashboard

Eyewitness account of the Serena Hotel bombing in Kabul Alex Evans

January 16, 2008 | More on Conflict and security, Middle East and North Africa | No comments

Barney Rubin’s friend Naser Shahalemi was in the Serena Hotel in Kabul when suicide bombers shot their way in and blew themselves up:

I look through the glass outside and see a Corolla turn and wrap to the front of the Serena Door and then the driver jumps outs and throws himself on the ground. The Corolla hits the wall of the front glass doors.Then I just hear hundreds of bullets shooting, I hit the ground because the bullets at this point sound extremely close to me. I start crawling through the Chai Khana on my knees and I get back to the second lounge in the slip door…

I turn on the afterburners and start cutting up the hall following a trail of blood leading to the basement. Everyone is running as fast as possible. I lost my cousin Arif in this mess. I get down two flights of steps in the secure basement of the Serena where I see Arif. We greet each other, and I check to see he isn’t injured. I asked him are you OK, he is fine, we quickly move to the deeper portion of the basement … We get in the cafeteria and more Afghan politicians are amongst us, with Europeans and foreigners. Karzai’’s oldest brother is also trapped with us and he is pacing frantically as we are unaware of what is going on in the lobby. We can hear shots and we can hear booms, but the remaining security personnel is posted at the doors and is ready to shoot at will.

More people come to the basement, as the terrorists have infiltrated the gym and spa area. They have shot dead the spa manager, Zina a very pleasant Filipino Girl who was just doing her job working in Afghanistan to support herself and family abroad. The Terrorists move into the gym and shot an American dead in the face on the treadmill.

As someone else notes in the Comments section, “everyone’s in shock, Serena felt like the one place you could relax”.  So what does it all mean for the international community’s presence in Kabul?  Barney’s own analysis is pretty bleak, but also extremely insightful – go read.

Whatever happens next, this is a major decision point for everyone concerned in Afghanistan. Such operations will continue. Even if the vast majority do not succeed, the result will be a mix of the following:

1. Many if not most of the civilian foreign expatriates currently involved in the delivery of aid or other activities in Afghanistan will leave.

2. Most of the rest will be concentrated into a Forbidden City like the Green Zone in Baghdad. The U.S. Embassy is already such a compound, and the area around it in Wazir Akbar Khan is already so fortified that it might not take much more to turn that and the adjacent areas of Shahr-i Naw (palace, main ministries, UN offices, embassies) into such a zone.

 Part of the problem, he continues, is the way that the international aid community has come to be perceived by Afghans:

Collectively we have generated an infrastructure serving only our needs that dwarfs the infrastructure provided for Afghans. This infrastructure — of which the Serena Hotel is the flagship — is the most visible part of the aid system to Afghans. Projects may mature in a few (or many) years, but right now Afghans see the guest houses, bars, restaurants, armored cars, checkpoints, hotels, hostile unaccountable gunmen, brothels, videos, CDs, cable television, Internet cafes with access to pornography, ethnic Russian waitresses from Kyrgyzstan in Italian restaurants owned by members of the former royal family and patronized by U.S. private security guards with their Chinese girlfriends and Afghan TV moguls, and skyrocketing prices for real estate, food, and fuel, traffic jams caused by the proliferation of vehicles and exacerbated by “security measures” every time a foreign or Afghan official leaves the office — I could go on, but the Serena is a symbol of all that.

What it comes down to, he says, is this:

As far as I know, all this aid is not there because of anybody’s generosity, though Afghans are required to say so from time to time … The US and others are in Afghanistan for their national security interests. It is possible — though not necessarily so — that these interests will coincide with that of many Afghans for a while. That’s the question Afghans are asking: are the foreigners here to help us as well as themselves, or to help only themselves, even at our expense? That’s the political question at the heart of counter-narcotics policy. That is the political question at the heart of disputes over civilian casualties, status of forces agreements, detainees, and how aid is delivered…

When I visited Afghanistan under the Taliban in 1998 people quietly let me know how frustrated they were. In the Pashtun areas, at least, people felt a degree of personal security as long as they obeyed the Taliban, but they were bitter about their poverty and lack of development and freedom. The universal strength of that feeling was the most lasting impression of that visit. Everything I have seen since has confirmed and reconfirmed it. But it has also confirmed and reconfirmed that Afghans are losing faith that they are actually being offered a share of what they think the “international community” has to offer.

I don’t have a blueprint on my hard drive on in a cache somewhere. But the Serena bombing is a sign that unless Afghans are really in charge of their country, it will not be rebuilt. I know that some plans are out there. It’s time to take a new look at them. Are they unrealistic? Maybe. But what is definitely unrealistic is thinking we can succeed with the approach we have used so far.


Comments are closed.

12/03 18:54 The amazing true story of Zeitoun Katrina and the War On Terror - mixed together in the injustice done to a New Orleans' hero.
12/03 16:43 I am not afraid of my Toyota Prius Could Toyota's problems simply be a case of modern hysteria?
12/03 14:01 Wolfgang Schauble’s torture chamber "The German government is essentially proposing chucking weaklings out of the euro."
12/03 09:54 It’s In the Bag! Teenager Wins Science Fair, Solves Massive Environmental Problem | Discover Magazine Canadian schoolkid's science experiment figures out how to dispose of plastic bags in 6 weeks instead of a thousand years
11/03 13:27 State Department plans 7 new posts in public diplomacy | Washington Times Officials to be assigned to the department's regional bureaus in effort to integrate public diplomacy into the policy process
10/03 17:22 The Foreign Policy Framework of a New Conservative Government | William Hague Shadow Foreign Secretary calls for "Britain to work harder to exert her influence rather than to accept a decline in it. "
10/03 15:45 Cathy Ashton speech to the European Parliament | europa.eu EU High Representative outlines her vision for the future of European foreign policy
10/03 15:11 South African tourism minister nominated for top UN climate job Marthinus van Schalkwyk nominated to replace Yvo de Boer.
10/03 13:05 Time to stock up on "survival seeds"! Seeds are the new gold.
10/03 09:37 Tories plan fast-track review of defence | FT Hague: defence review likely to be complete by November 2010 and to encompass national security and foreign policy
09/03 15:26 Think Progress » Palin Admits To Travelling To Canada For Health Care "We used to hustle over the border for health care we received in Canada. And I think now, isn’t that ironic?"
09/03 09:46 Why Europe needs its own IMF | FT Giancarlo Corsetti and Harold James: a European Monetary Fund is needed "through which support operations can be calmly negotiated without exciting political passions."
08/03 08:59 Interview with Dambisa Moyo | New Statesman Moyo: "Standard models of economic development have three ingredients: capital, labour and technology. I'm looking at how government policies on these have yielded bad outcomes."
05/03 11:19 Hacking human gullibility with social penetration The easiest way into a computer network is by tricking the people who use it.
05/03 10:02 EU faces bitter battle over control of foreign policy | FT David Miliband and Swedish Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt, voice concerns in a letter to Cathy Ashton about the European External Action Service (EEAS)
05/03 09:01 Theatre of war | The Times Ten questions the Chilcot Inquiry should ask Gordon Brown
04/03 12:49 Hassan touted by supporters as best choice for climate post Indonesians want their ex-foreign minister to take over from Yvo de Boer at the UNFCCC.
04/03 12:39 Romney’s ‘No Apology’ Outlines Foreign Policy for Fantasy World Frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination for President loves his zero-sum geopolitics.
03/03 18:34 Fractional-reserve banking - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia If you don't understand this stuff, then you should
03/03 16:11 Fog Catchers Bring Water to Parched Villages - National Geographic With a few thousand dollars and some volunteer labor, a village can set up fog-collecting nets that gather hundreds of gallons of water a day—without a single drop of rain
03/03 11:12 Cathy Ashton interviewed on the Today programme | BBC Radio 4 Ashton addresses critics, saying "i've not yet developed the capacity for time-travel"
28/02 16:48 Could Britain Re-Take The Falkland Islands Again? Probably not - too few ships, military over-stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, not much money to spare.
27/02 23:55 A parable about how one nation came to financial ruin. - By Charles Munger - Slate Magazine Why the US and the UK are screwed, by Warren Buffett's deputy at Berkshire Hathaway
27/02 22:25 100 Items to Disappear First Your supermarket looting list, in order of priority, should you find yourself facing the end of the world as you know it.
27/02 22:23 The World Without Us - Alan Weisman Q: Which part of our legacy will last forever? A: The TV and radio waves making their way through space.
27/02 22:18 Swiss face 'holy war' with Gadhafi's Libya - washingtonpost.com Switzerland unsure how seriously to take El Jefe's declaration of jihad in retaliation for their brief detention of his son in 2008
27/02 22:15 Subjects of UN Security Council Vetoes - Global Policy Forum Interesting factoid: the only times the UK has EVER used its Security Council veto on its own (without US or France) have been on S Rhodesia / Zimbabwe.
27/02 22:11 Freedom Ship - the City at Sea Cruise ship meets tax haven meets aircraft carrier
27/02 17:44 Congressman Tom Perriello On The Senate Stalling On Climate Change Legislation What happens when one of the founders of Avaaz.org gets elected to Congress
27/02 15:15 Kids' Center — Central Intelligence Agency Hi kids! Want to hear a story about our network of secret prisons?
27/02 14:08 Tyranny of the Alphabet The sad fate of academics with surnames that come from the nether regions of the alphabet...
27/02 11:41 British Tea Party Movement to launch on Saturday Posted without comment.
27/02 11:38 How one woman can cause economic boom or bust The media pushes stats well beyond their margin of error to get economic doom stories. And the stories themselves make economic doom more likely. Hey ho.
26/02 23:41 The Making of an Agent Training to protect the President. Or how to be a 'meat shield'.
26/02 18:11 Catherine Ashton: 'My Job Is to Keep Traffic Moving' | TIME Contra Miliband, the EU Foreign Minister outlines her role in foreign capitals
26/02 14:36 BBC News - MI5: The Court of Appeal's controversial paragraphs It's official: you can't believe a word MI5 says (this is news, apparently). But Lord Neuberger has backtracked on "obvious reason for distrusting any UK Government assurance".
26/02 13:58 Policypointers - Policy research from leading think tanks, research institutes and government departments worldwide Every publication, from every think tank, as it's published, if that's your idea of a good time
23/02 15:17 Climategate Meets the Law Senator Inhofe wants criminal sanctions against climate scientists - another stunningly mendacious article from Pajamas Media.
23/02 13:30 Long Bets - On the Record: Predictions Martin Rees bets that by 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to 1 million casualties in a single event. Find out what other experts are betting on here...
23/02 13:28 Yes Minister meets Alice in Wonderland - The Age An Australian writer blows the whistle on what it was like to be a speechwriter for the Department of Health and Ageing.
Source: GLOABL Dashboard Reading List Pipes
Articles & Publications
Stop Betting the House talk

Talk given by David Steven at Gresham College on risk and resilience in the UK housing market, as part of a Long Finance Roundtable meeting (March 2010)

Time to Stop Betting the House: a response to the FSA

Report by David Steven in response to the FSA’s Mortgage Market Review

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization: Risk, Resilience and International Order

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – and how it could be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

Hitting Reboot – where next for climate after Copenhagen

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven analysing the post-Copenhagen context on climate change, including a proposed 12 point action plan. Written for the Brookings Institution / NYU Center on International Cooperation Managing Global Insecurity programme.

Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the challenge

World Food Programme report on the state of the science on what climate change means for hunger, plus policy recommendations. Authored by IPCC Impacts Chair Martin Parry with Mark Rosengrant, Tim Wheeler and Global Dashboard’s Alex Evans (December 2009)

Scarcity, security and institutional reform

Presentation by Alex Evans to a seminar organised for the UN Department of Political Affairs by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (August 2009)

The Resilience Doctrine

Article on risk and resilience by Alex Evans and David Steven – part of a special in World Politics Review on risk and resilience in a globalized age (July 2009)

An Institutional Architecture for Climate Change

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring the future international institutional requirements for managing climate change, and including three scenarios for climate institutions between now and 2030. Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development. (May 2009)

Risks and Resilience in the New Global Era

Article by Alex Evans and David Steven exploring resilience as a political agenda – part of a special edition of Renewal on the transformation of foreign policy (February 2009)

A Tale of Two Cities

Climate and cities think piece, co-authored by David Steven and the British Council’s Peter Upton (29 January 2009)

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

Chatham House pamphlet by Alex Evans on how scarcity issues will shape the outlook for global food production, and the actions that policymakers need to take at the international level and in developing countries to ensure food security in the 21st century

2009 – A Year for International Reform

Paper by David Steven, presented to “Reforming International Institutions – Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century,” a conference organized by the United Nations University and the British Embassy in Tokyo (Jan 2009).

Food prices: what next?

Speech by Alex Evans at the Tomorrow Network (25 November 2008)

A Bretton Woods II Worthy of the Name

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven on financial reform and wider multilateralism, published ahead of the G20 ‘Bretton Woods II’ Summit (November 2008).

The Future of Resilience

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on UK Resilience (8 October 2008)

Towards a Theory of Influence

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office publication, ‘Engagement: public diplomacy in a globalised world’ (July 2008).
Download Chapter

Multilateralism for an Age of Scarcity

Draft report by Alex Evans exploring multilateral system reforms needed in order to manage resource scarcity issues more effectively. The final version will be published in early 2010 (July 2008)

Scarcity issues and conflict in Africa

Speech by Alex Evans at UK Parliament (8 July 2008)

A Low Carbon World – Pathways to a Global Deal

Speech by David Steven at the UNU G8 Symposium (4 July 2008)

Climate, scarcity and multilateralism

Speech by Alex Evans to United Nations Association UK (7 June 2008)

The new public diplomacy and Afghanistan

Speech by David Steven to the UK Defence Academy’s Advanced Research and Assessment Group seminar on Strategic Communications, Public Diplomacy and Afghanistan (4 June 2008).

Technology and Public Diplomacy

Speech by David Steven to the University of Westminster Symposium on Transformational Public Diplomacy (30 April 2008).

Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Briefing paper by Alex Evans, published through Chatham House’s food programme (April 2008).

Looking Forward: how do we build resilience?

Speech by David Steven to RUSI Conference on Critical National Infrastructure (16 April 2008).

Shooting the Rapids: multilateralism and global risks

Paper by Alex Evans and David Steven, commissioned by Gordon Brown and presented to heads of state at the Progressive Governance Summit (April 2008).

Beyond a Zero-Sum Game on Climate Change

Chapter by Alex Evans and David Steven, as part of the British Council’s Transatlantic Network 2020 book ‘Talking Trans-Atlantic’ (March 2008).

From Bali to Copenhagen: towards an endgame for global climate policy?

Article by Alex Evans for the Environmental Policy & Law Journal (January 2008).

Climate Change: The State of the Debate

Report by Alex Evans and David Steven, written for the London Accord (December 2007).

The Post-Kyoto Bidding War: bringing developing countries into the fold

New paper by Alex Evans on climate policy after 2012 from the Center on International Cooperation (October 2007).

Alternative CSR: the Foreign & Commonwealth Office

Chapter on the FCO from Manchester University Press’s Alternative Comprehensive Spending Review, by David Steven (September 2007).

Fixing the UK’s Foreign Policy Apparatus: A Memo to Gordon Brown

Note by Alex Evans and David Steven about how to restructure the UK’s foreign policy system in order to manage trans-boundary global risks better (April 2007).

Evaluation and the New Public Diplomacy

Talk given by David Steven at the Wilton Park conference: The Future of Public Diplomacy. Focuses on strategies to drive public diplomacy to the heart of the foreign policy armoury (March 2007).

Articles and Publications

YouTube Preview Image

Natalia Shakhova: permafrost failing | Comment

YouTube Preview Image

Ku Klux Klan 2010 Rally in South Georgia | Comment

YouTube Preview Image

1st accurate model of cause/effect in the global economy | Comment

YouTube Preview Image

Taiwan’s take on Gordon (FF to 35 seconds in; h/t Dizzy Thinks) | Comment

YouTube Preview Image

Tangerinegate (alas, the story isn’t true) | Comment

More What we're watching

Key Posts
Daily Mail lies about Facebook (updated x7)

Daily Mail lies about Facebook. Facebook sues. Exclusive.

Back to Realism

Transnational factors and threats should make state-centric approaches fall apart, in theory – but in practice, today’s statesment seem extraordinarily adept at sticking with “national interest”-based thinking.

Time to Stop Betting the House

Today, I launch a new paper on risk and resilience in the UK housing market. The report calls for a fundamental shift in the way in which the UK mortgage market is regulated and the how it operates.
The paper is published by the Long Finance Foundation, which is a counter to [...]

Read more » | Comments Off

Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization

Brookings Institution report by Alex Evans, Bruce Jones and David Steven on how globalisation could fail – or be made more resilient. Published to coincide with the 40th anniversary World Economic Forum in Davos.

The best news on climate change for months. Maybe.

Bono endorses contraction and convergence – potentially kicking off a major (and long overdue) strategic rethink on climate change among NGOs and civil society

Copenfailure: a first analysis

A very rough first analysis of the Copenhagen Outcome, two hours after the summit finished.

How we talk about climate change

We’re kidding ourselves if we think that “green collar jobs” will persuade people to take serious action on climate change. A deeper narrative is required.

The window of opportunity on scarcity issues starts to close (updated x3)

With oil and food prices already back to July 07 levels, have policymakers missed the window of opportunity to take action when prices eased after the credit crunch?