by Richard Gowan | Dec 4, 2007 | Conflict and security
As Alex notes, awareness of the crunch in peacekeeping is spreading. There’s news today of an MIT report arguing that the proposed EU force in Chad would be “engulfed”, which leaves those (like me) who have argued for a rapid deployment a tad uneasy. And, out in the real world, it’s full-scale artillery barrage time in the eastern DRC…
So, any reasons to be cheerful? Well yes, just possibly. The more attention the situation gets now, the higher the chance that the international community may pause to wonder what on earth it’s managed to get itself into. It’s worth remembering that the one really important document on UN peacekeeping – 2000’s Brahimi Report – mattered because it faced up to the catastrophes of the 1990s. Nothing like a great big failure to inspire new thinking.
Maybe if we can work out that peacekeeping is teetering on the brink right now, we can skip the horrible failure bit and start propping it up as we go along? Maybe.
by Alex Evans | Dec 4, 2007 | Conflict and security
Scott Paul at the Washington Note agrees with Richard about the outlook for UN peacekeeping:
“Expectations for UN peacekeeping are sky high even though resources are nowhere to be found. I’m worried that the UN is being set up for failure.”
by Alex Evans | Dec 4, 2007 | Climate and resource scarcity
So says International Food Policy Research Institute head Joachim von Braun in an exclusive interview with the Guardian today:
“Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain – of rice, wheat and maize – are down at levels not seen since the early 80s,” said von Braun, whose organisation is the world’s largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists, and policy experts.
So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular, has run down its supplies.
“Over the next 12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large consuming nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter international markets to bid up prices to unusual levels,” von Braun warned ahead of a speech today to the institute’s AGM in Beijing …
The social tensions caused by rising food prices are already evident, says von Braun. “The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70,000 took to the streets. I think that was only the beginning – there will be more,” said von Braun. “For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will bid up the world market.”
