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Weighty analysis from the BBC which wonders whether what impact yesterday’s so-so weather in London will have on Gordon Brown’s premiership. You’ll want to read the whole thing of course. But for anyone who has more pressing worries, the answer is… none at all.
“In the last 43 years, only Mr Heath and Mr Blair have [...]

There was a paradox at the heart of this week’s conference on climate change.
When describing the scale of the problem, speakers gave very strong messages. Temperature changes need to be kept below 2 degrees. This means keeping greenhouse gases below 450ppm (CO2 equivalent) – and even this might be too high. Emissions need to peak [...]

Over the last couple of days, we’ve been blogging from the Chatham House conference – Climate Change: Politics versus Economics.
As the conference made clear, there is growing consensus about what a full-term solution to climate change would look like: concentrations kept below 450ppm or even a shade lower.
This target allows some fairly easy sums to [...]

That was a pretty good conference. But here are five leftfield suggestions for how to make conferences even more fun - and get the speakers to perform. (Most of these ideas - oh, OK, all of them - are David’s; but hey, what’s blogging if not glorified plagiarism?)

Every discussion panel should have on it someone [...]

In his closing key note speech at Chatham House, Malik Amin Aslam Khan, Pakistan’s environment minister, argued that ‘we are fast running out of time for remedial action’ on the ‘indisputable’ threat from climate change.
While the science becomes clearer, the economic warnings unmistakable, the physical reality unambiguous and world opinion strongly in support, the politics [...]

Chris Dodwell, a senior climate change official at the UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, supports a long-term stabilisation goal. A goal is important for three reasons, he argues.
First, it gives business a long term signal. Second, it provides a guide for countries on how to cope with the change in climate that [...]

At Chatham House, this morning, DFID’s chief economist, Tony Venables gave a somewhat elusive presentation on what developing countries want from climate change policy.
Taking it as a given that climate change will hit the poorest hardest, Venables argued that carbon trading between countries increases both efficiency and equity. Emissions are reduced in the most cost [...]

In the post below, Alex envisages an implausibly high stabilization target (1000ppm say), followed by a dramatic shock (one that, presumably, everyone needs to accept is largely caused by climate change), which leads to a rapid revision (down to a stable 450ppm).
But maybe we can expect a more dynamic target, subject to regular revision. A [...]

David’s right below about the lack of specifics on stabilisation levels.  But it’s worth remembering the lessons of Ken Livingstone’s Congestion Charge in London: start with lax targets, then ratchet them up later, after people have got used to the principle of having them.
What would this mean in the global climate policy context?  Agree the [...]

Dr Per Stig Møller, Danish Foreign Minister, was Environment Minister in Rio in 1993. Now he’s looking forward to the big climate showdown in Copenhagen in 2009, when optimists hope a post-2012 framework will be agreed.
Møller has a six step agenda for getting to 2009.
First, increase awareness worldwide and engage all levels of society. Second, [...]

Day 2.  Danish Foreign Secretary Per Stig Møller explains that Denmark is not investing in nuclear power stations because there’s no long term solution to the waste problem.  But, interjects a feisty member of the audience, in that case why is Denmark investing in carbon capture and storage – which, she says, is toxic too?
Moller [...]

Paul Golby, CEO of power major, E:ON, is hot under the collar about the lumbering nature of the British planning system.
Case-in-point: the London Array, an offshore wind farm which will produce enough power to supply quarter of Greater London’s needs - 750,000 homes.
The scheme got all its planning permission, apart from for a small substation where [...]

Emma Duncan, deputy editor of The Economist, has a nice graph showing the abatement costs of various different technology options. Over on the left hand side the cheapest – as usual – are various energy efficiency options that, like loft insulation, are cheaper than free, in that they save you money.
So why aren’t all these [...]

We’re talking about leadership…
John Llewellyn, Senior Economic Policy Adviser for Lehman Brothers, makes the case for economic incentives. Exhortation, he says, won’t work.
If he’s right (and accepting that unchecked climate change will be disastrous), then I think it’s fair to say that the world is stuffed.
Because something has to come before incentives – the decision [...]

From my old colleague Nick Mabey’s presentation: a comparison of two competing narratives about future action.
The Stern Review is in no doubt that the cost benefit analysis is clear: we must act now! The damages will cost 5-25% of future GDP; future costs should be valued highly; the low carbon economy is pretty cheap [...]

Quote of the day so far: Mutsuyoshi Nishimura, Japan’s Ambassador for Global Environment, who opines that:
“If [UNFCCC Conferences of Parties] were televised live, people would be aghast!”
Amen to that. And it raises the interesting question, so far not really explored at today’s conference: where will the real deal-making be done? Of course, we [...]

Cleo Paskal switched focus from the problems that climate change will exacerbate to the unfamiliar problems it could cause.
What if a small, low lying country disappears, she asked? Does it continue to exist as a ghost nation? Can it hold onto its UN seat, perhaps with a government-in-exile to keep its name alive?
And what will [...]

Interesting differences of opinion about how serious a problem we’re facing…
Potted Bert Metz: To avoid dangerous climate change (a 2 degree increase in mean global temperature), we need to stabilise emissions by 2015 and get them back to current levels by 2040. Even if this is achieved, we’re still going to see very costly damage.
Potted [...]

Our second speaker: Bert Metz, the co-chair of the mitigation working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Metz regaled us with various numbers about the affordability of climate mitigation before noting parenthetically that, um, the figures didn’t take into account the costs of damages.
An analysis showing that stabilising at lower greenhouse gas [...]

Air Chief Marshall Sir Jock Stirrup – Chief of the UK’s Defence Staff – opens the conference, pitching for a frontline role for the military in the response to climate change.
Key questions for military planners. Is the pace of climate change likely to be quicker than the world can respond to safely? In the most [...]

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